Excess Deaths in Canada - (Alberta & B.C., 2020)

Many countries around the world (arguably in fact, most Western countries) have reported an unexpected and alarming number of excess deaths, when comparing counts of deaths in 2022 to the pre-Covid-19 totals. Excess deaths were expected during the height of the pandemic, but the SARS-2 virus had mutated to a milder form by late 2021, so it was expected that would have resulted in a significant drop total deaths, compared to 2020 and 2021.

Deaths should have fallen to pre-Covid levels; in fact there was the possibility that deaths would have been lower than pre-Covid. That’s because Covid-19 took a lot of people who were elderly and/or had other serious diseases, so that should have produced a “culling” effect, whereby some people died a year or two earlier than they might have otherwise. But that didn’t happen.

Canada has been slow to report deaths for 2022, so there is still no official word on how this has turned out for the Canadian population. However, the two most westerly provinces (British Columbia and Alberta), which account for about 25%-30% of the population have reported counts for deaths, up to early November 2022. So, I have used that data to explore the Canadian experience. There seems to be no good reason for the results for the country overall to be much different than the results for these two provinces.

The evidence, shown below, indicates that deaths did remain high, nearly as high in October-November 2022 as they were in the same period of 2021. Similarly to many other countries, the situation is most pronounced in the younger age groups and more-so among males than females.

Covid-19 Deaths in Alberta, October-November 2015-2022

To set the stage for the excess deaths analysis, a brief look at the Covid deaths will prove useful. Alberta data will be used for this, as it is quite complete and accessible.

The excess deaths data corresponds to the 5 week period between early October and early to mid November, for each of the years between 2015 and 2022. Therefore, we will look specifically at those periods, to see how the Covid pandemic was progressing in Alberta.

The period from 2015 to 2019 can be thought of as the normal, non-Covid period, as to the best of anyone’s knowledge, the pandemic didn’t begin until some time after November 2019. The years 2020 and 2021 were the height of the pandemic, while 2022 saw the virus mutate into a much less dangerous form.

 The data for Alberta demonstrates these trends in Covid-19. During 2020 this period saw steeply rising numbers of deaths per day (from about 2 to 10, 112 in all), while in 2021 deaths were high but falling (about 20 down to about 5, 330 in total), and in 2022 were mostly steady at about 5 per day (194 in total).

Admissions to the ICU in that province show similar trends; low but trending upward in Oct-Nov 2020, very high in Oct-Nov 2021 and relatively low in Oct-Nov 2022.

Overall Deaths in Alberta/B.C., October-November 2015-2022

Total Deaths (Covid-19 and All Others) are shown for the two provinces, in the table and graph below. In both cases, deaths increase noticeably after 2019, peaking in 2021, then falling somewhat in 2022.

 

This is somewhat at odds with the graphs for Covid Deaths and ICU admits in Alberta, in so far as the high death counts in 2022 don’t correspond very well with the relatively low Covid figures for that year. In other words, there appear to be excess deaths in the 2022, over and above what could be attributed to the Covid pandemic directly.

Looking at Alberta deaths separately (from the Alberta government Covid information website), we can determine how many Covid-19 deaths there were during these periods , and thus how many non-Covid deaths there were as well.

The graph and table shows that Covid-19 deaths did decline from 2021 to 2022, though non-Covid deaths actually increased somewhat during that period. But the main thing that the graph shows, is that non-Covid deaths are up substantially from the 2015-2019 totals (by about 400 deaths). Bear in mind that this data is just for the Oct-Nov 5 week period in each year; total deaths are likely to be 10 times that number.

 

 

It could be argued that some of the non-Covid deaths in the 2020-2022 period were simply a continuation of an increasing trend during the 2015-2019 period. To account for this, extrapolations from the 2015-2019 trend were done, as shown in the attached table and graph.

Two extrapolations are shown; a linear trend and a logarithmic trend. The latter has a higher R-Square and is more visually intuitive. Also, during this period both international and interprovincial migrations were severely curtailed due to Covid-related policies (e.g. lock-downs), so the continuation of a linear trend seems less likely than a logarithmic trend.

This then gives the following as an estimate of non-Covid excess deaths in Alberta during the Oct-Nov 5-week periods in the years 2020, 2021, and 2022.

 

If we then annualize those numbers, by multiplying by 10, we get about 3000 excess deaths for Alberta in 2022. Assuming that these assumptions could be generalized to all of Canada, that would mean about 30,000 deaths for the country in total.

In a future blog, a breakdown of age and gender excess deaths will be presented. As has been found in most jurisdictions around the world, the excess deaths phenomenon is most keenly felt in the younger age groups.

 

Sources and Related Blogs:

Statistics Canada: https://doi.org/10.25318/1310076801-eng

Alberta Covid Stats: https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm

https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Some earlier Covid-19 blogs:

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2022/10/monkeypox-vs-covid-dna-vs-rna-first-168.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2022/05/covid-19-comparing-direct-case-measures.html

https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/8998037621231280699/6639498264259397039

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-positive-results-from.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-how-successfully-are.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/12/covid-19-vaccines-comparison-of.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/09/covid-19-continues-to-travel-around.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/has-covid-19-become-less-deadly.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/july-2020-update-covid-19-death-rates.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/05/covid-19-death-rates-correlate-highly.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-impact-on-employment-no-impact.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-there-model-that-can-predict-when-to.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/03/estimating-fatality-rate-of-coronavirus.html

 

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And, here’s something that’s a bit more fun than excess deaths and worldwide virus pandemics.

A Drive Across Newfoundland

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Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known for steep cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist too). The inland areas are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by forests, rivers, rock formations, and abundant wildlife. The province also features some of the Earth’s most remarkable geology, notably The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the Earth’s interior have been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an almost alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered regions of the planet.

The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban areas, with a population that maintains many old traditions and cultural aspects of the British Isles. That’s true of the rest of the province, as well, where the people are friendly and inclined to chat amiably with visitors. Plus, they talk with amusing accents and party hard, so what’s not to like?

This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.

A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail: A Biking Journal Kindle Edition

by Dale Olausen (Author), Helena Puumala (Editor)

The Kettle Valley Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic biking and hiking trails in Canada. It covers a good stretch of the south-central interior of British Columbia, about 600 kilometers of scenic countryside. British Columbia is one of the most beautiful areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country, ideal for those who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in the great outdoors.

The trail passes through a great variety of geographical and geological regions, from mountains to valleys, along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry near-desert condition grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned by a combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes through wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite low, in populated valleys, alongside spectacular water features such as beautiful Lake Okanagan, an area that is home to hundreds of vineyards, as well as other civilized comforts.

The trail is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits and adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness. The views are spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people are friendly. What more could one ask for?

What follows is a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail in the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours reading), and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are also sections containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora and fauna, and associated information.

After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it will be an experience you will never forget.

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On the Road with Bronco Billy

Spring is on us now, and that brings on thoughts of ROAD TRIP. Sure, it is still a bit early, but you can still start making plans for your next road trip with help of “On the Road with Bronco Billy”. Sit back and go on a ten day trucking trip in a big rig, through western North America, from Alberta to Texas, and back again. Explore the countryside, learn some trucking lingo, and observe the shifting cultural norms across this great continent. Then, come spring, try it out for yourself.

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