Covid-19 Impact on Employment: No Impact, Work at Home, or Laid Off (A Statistical Analysis)
The Covid-19 pandemic and the related lockdown had a significant effect on employment in many countries around the
world. It is natural to wonder which
types of jobs were most affected and in what way?
As it turns out, the June 3, 2020 Globe and Mail Report on
Business had a story on this (page B5).
Their main focus was on the relationship between the ability to work
from home (Telework Capacity) and the Employment Change in Canada between
February and April, 2020. This was
plotted for a number of major industry/employment types. Though it uses Canadian data, it seems likely
that these results would prove true for other advanced economies.
I have reproduced the graph in that story above, adding the
R-square and regression relationship to the graph. I also added an indicator colour and number for
each point on the graph, that shows the urgency of the task under consideration
being carried on, regardless of the pandemic (i.e. how big an impact would a
short-term disruption in this industry/job type have on society?).
The indicator is somewhat subjective (my own
determination), though I think it would align fairly well with the notion of
primary production, secondary production and service industry. A red dot is a highly necessary activity
(also coded 1), while a blue dot is a less urgent activity (also coded 0).
As you can see, there is a relationship between employment change
(always negative during this time) and Telework Capacity (the sloped line). Basically, if an industry/job type had the
necessary communications capacity, the employment loss was substantially reduced.
The other phenomenon visible in the graph is that the red
dots tend to be higher on the graph than the blue dots. In other words, jobs that could be considered
highly necessary (such as utilities, agriculture and health) had lower
employment loss than those that were less urgently needed (such as accommodation/food
and arts/recreation). This isn’t to say
that the latter jobs aren’t necessary or useful, just that society can mostly get
along without them for a while.
That difference in job loss is shown in the
graph below. Also shown, is the finding
that Telework Capacity didn’t differ overall by these two main job categories.
A bivariate regression of the Telework-Job Loss relationship
gives an R-square of .24 and an adjusted R-square of .18 (using the Excel Data
Manager Add-in). A bivariate regression
of the Job Necessity – Job Loss relationship has an R-square of .21 and an
adjusted R-square of .15. Both of these
models are not quite at the standard statistical significance level of p=.05
(p=.06 and p=.07 respectively.
A multivariate model, using both variables has an improved
R-square, of .46, and an adjusted R-square of .37. The enhanced model has a statistical significance
of p=.019, so considering both variables effect together on employment levels
is a substantially better model than using either variable alone. The mathematical/statistical
details of the model are shown below.
To sum up:
·
The Covid-19 lockdown reduced employment overall
and in all job categories.
·
The impact was less for jobs that could easily
be worked from home.
·
The impact was less for jobs that were necessary
on a day-to-day basis (e.g. health and utilities) than they were on jobs that
were less urgently needed (e.g. restaurants and art galleries).
·
If a job was not exactly essential, but could be
done from home, employment was not much affected (e.g. Finance and Insurance).
·
If a job was essential, and couldn’t be done
from home (via telework), employment was not much affected anyway
(agriculture/forestry).
Fortunately, there was government assistance
for workers in many of these jobs that couldn’t be done from home and weren’t
deemed to be essential (such as restaurants).
=========================================================
And, here’s are some more pleasant work and travel stories
than anticipating the worldwide journey of a virus.
A Drive Across Newfoundland
Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B07NMR9WM8
Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B07NMR9WM8
Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region
that is both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of
stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known for steep
cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist too). The inland areas
are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by forests, rivers, rock
formations, and abundant wildlife. The province also features some of the Earth’s
most remarkable geology, notably The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the
Earth’s interior have been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an
almost alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered
regions of the planet.
The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban
areas, with a population that maintains many old traditions and cultural
aspects of the British Isles. That’s true of the rest of the province, as well,
where the people are friendly and inclined to chat amiably with visitors. Plus,
they talk with amusing accents and party hard, so what’s not to like?
This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.
This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.
On the Road with Bronco Billy
Spring is on us now,
and that brings on thoughts of ROAD TRIP. Sure, it is still a bit early, but you can
still start making plans for your next road trip with help of “On the Road with
Bronco Billy”. Sit back and go on a ten
day trucking trip in a big rig, through western North America, from Alberta to
Texas, and back again. Explore the
countryside, learn some trucking lingo, and observe the shifting cultural norms
across this great continent. Then, come
spring, try it out for yourself.
Amazon U.S.: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon U.K.: http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon Canada: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
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