Updated: Goaltending Since the Oilers-Penguins Trade
Now that the Olympics are done, it is a good time to review how
the Oilers-Penguins trade worked out, using a longer time-line than
the previous blog.
Tristan Jarry Update
For reference, the last blog was when Jarry was at Game 20. At
that time, things were looking pretty good for him. Since then, the
graph has turned way down, including a couple of .750 games, though
it has not all been bad (one .900 game). This up-and-down
performance was also seen during his time with Pittsburgh, though his
record was somewhat better there, to this point in time. That may be
due to the Penguins playing a better defensive game than the Oilers,
or it may just be the random variation that is not unusual in such
data. Consistency, in any high level activity, is a lot harder than
the average person thinks.
Overall, since the trade, Tristan has had 1 excellent game (a
shutout), 4 very good games (around .900), 4 so-so games (around
.850) and 2 stinkers (around .750).
Jarry is still above water since the trade, in terms of (actual
points/possible points) = 64%. However, that’s a drop from 75%,
which was his record since the trade in the original post.
Interestingly, the 64% is exactly the same as his record with the
Penguins, earlier in the season.
Stuart Skinner
Update
Next, we will look at Stuart Skinner’s updated performance since
the trade, since the trade was Jarry for Skinner. For reference,
Stu’s last game before this graph was updated was game 32).
The 4 games since the original graph are similar to Jarry’s, in
terms of the up-and-down nature of the data. He had two excellent
games (around .950) and two howlers (both under .800). So, it could
be argued that the teams traded one inconsistent goalie for a
different inconsistent goalie.
Overall, since the trade, Stu has had 5 really good games (around
.950), 2 pretty good games (around .900), 3 so-so games (around .850)
and 3 howlers (below .800).
Skinner’s
(actual points/possible points) = 66% since the trade, whereas it
had been 57% in the original post. So, a decent improvement. For
comparison, his record with the Oilers was 52%.
Conner Ingram
Update
Next, we will look at Conner Ingram. Though he wasn’t part of
the trade, the trade certainly affected his career path. For
reference, his last game before the update of the graph was game 9,
the shutout.
Since that time, Ingram has not done very well, either. Two games
were semi-respectable and 2 were bad, below .800.
Calvin Pickard
Update
Pickard has not played any Oilers games since the trade, though he
was with the team for some of that time. However he was ultimately
put on waivers, passed waivers, then sent down to the Oilers AHL team
in Bakersfield, California. He hasn’t played since being sent
down, as far as I know. It turns out the the farm team has a couple
of very good goalie prospects, so it may be difficult to slot him in.
It is too bad, because he did make some really stand-out
performances in the playoffs, during the previous couple of years,
bailing out the team when Skinnter faltered. He is also known for
being a good team player (‘good in the room’) and an overall nice
guy. However, he is well into his 30s and has had a long and
interesting career (it would make a good hockey book). Plus, even
with relatively low pay for a hockey player, he had make a lot more
money than 99% of the population did over that time. So there’s
that.
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Original Post
The Edmonton Oilers hockey club has long been seen as having
inconsistent goaltending – sometimes their goalies have been
stellar, other times seemingly hopeless. The latest tandem to
exhibit that tendency was Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. Many
observers felt that more reliable goaltending would have led to at
least one Stanley Cup victory, rather than a 7 and 6 game losses, as
was the case in 2023-24 and 2024-25.
Thus, in mid-December 2025 they made a key goalie trade with the
Pittsburgh Penguins, swapping Stuart Skinner for Tristan Jarry. As a
side-effect of that trade, they also called up Conner Ingram from
their AHL affiliate, since Jarry had experienced an injury shortly
after the trade. The net effect (pun intended) was that they
transitioned from Skinner-Pickard to Jarry-Ingram, with Calvin
Pickard in a third goalie role, at least for a while, as insurance
should one of the other two become injured again.
At the time of this blog, it has been a little over a month since
the trade. So, how has it gone? Read below for some statistical
evidence.
NOTE, next day: Hilariously enough, Oilers and Penguins played a
game the very night that I published this blog and Jarry absolutely
bombed (0.727 in that game), sending his save pct to 0.881 (from
0.904) in saves/shots and 0.878 (from 0.903) in average of game save
percentages. His win pct dropped to 57% (from 67%), and his point
pct went down to 64% (from 75%).
As I pointed out in the blog: his trend with the Oilers has
only a limited number of games, so it should be taken with a large
measure of caution.
Statisticians say this all the time, because it’s true.
Tristan Jarry
Jarry has played 6 games, as of Dec 21, 2026 for the Oilers.
Previous to that, he had played 14 games with the Penguins. His
Oilers save percentage since the trade has been over 0.900 ,
customarily thought of as an important benchmark. In terms of
overall saves/shots, it is 0.904, while in terms of averaging the
save percentage in each game, it is at 0.903. Note that the two
methods can yield slightly different results, depending on how many
outlier games the goalie has had (i.e. very much better or worse than
usual).
His record with the Penguins this year, was not all that different
from that with the Oilers, in terms of save percentage, at 0.909 for
saves/shots and 0.895 when averaging the save percentages in each
game. This result shows how the two methods can give different
answers. That is further demonstrated by the high ups and downs of
his Penguins games, as shown in the graph.
The graph shows that Jarry’s linear trend with the Penguins was
slightly downward, while the trend with the Oilers it has been
upward. That said, his trend with the Oilers has only a limited
number of games, so it should be taken with a large measure of
caution.
Jarry won 4 out of these 6 Oiler games, for a win percentage of
67%. In terms of points, he has played net for 9 of 12 potential
points, for a points average of 75%.
For the Penguins earlier in the year, his win percentage in 14
games was 64%, with his points percentage coming in at 68%.
So, as far as Jarry’s play goes, the trade has worked out well
so far for him and for the Oilers.
Stuart Skinner
Stuart Skinner has played 9 games with the Penguins, after having
played 23 games with the Oilers previous to that. His Penguins save
percentage since the trade has been a bit under 0.900. In terms of
overall saves/shots, it is 0.891, while in terms of averaging the
save percentage in each game, it is at 0.895. Note again that the
two methods can yield different results, depending on how many
outlier games the goalie has had (i.e. very much better or worse than
usual).
The graph shows that Skinner’s linear trend with the Oilers was
downward, while with the Penguins it has been upward. That said, his
trend with the Penguins has only a limited number of games, so it
should also be taken with a large measure of caution.
His record with the Oilers this year, was not as good as it has
been with the Penguins. His Oilers save percentage was 0.891 for
saves/shots and 0.872 when averaging the save percentages in each
game. Again, this result shows how the two methods can give quite
different answers. That is further demonstrated by the high ups and
downs of his Oilers games, as shown in the graph. It is also the
case that his games with the Penguins have had a fair bit of
variance.
Skinner won 5 out of the 9 Penguin games, for a win percentage of
56%. In terms of points, he has played net for 10 of 18, also for a
points average of 56%.
For the Oilers earlier in the year, his win percentage in 23 games
was 48%, with his points percentage coming in at 57%.
So, as far as Skinner’s play goes, the trade has worked out well
so far for him (higher save percentage), and it has probably been a
slight loss for the Penguins. However, it is a small sample size, so
that may change as the season progresses.
Conner Ingram
Conner Ingram was not directly involved in the trade, though it is
probable that the trade did make his call-up from the AHL affiliate
necessary. Since then, he has answered the bell quite decisively,
with a 0.917 save percentage for the total saves/shots measure, and
0.920 for the average of averages measure.
The graph shows that Ingram’s linear trend with the Oilers has
been upward. That said, it is a limited number of games (9 in all),
so it should also be taken with a measure of caution.
Ingram has won 5 out of 9 starts, for a win percentage of 56%. In
terms of points, he has played for 11 points out of a possible 18,
for a points percentage of 61%.
So, as far as Ingram’s play goes, the trade has worked out well
so far for him. It has resulted in him being called up to the NHL
team, where he has posted an impressive save percentage as well as a
very good win and points percentage. However, it is a small sample
size, so that may change as the season progresses.
Calvin Pickard
Calvin Pickard was not part of the trade, but it has also had an
impact on him. He had several starts while Jarry was injured, more
than he otherwise would have had. Previous to the trade his save
percentage was mediocre at best, with 0.851 in total saves/shots and
0.848 in average of game save percentages. Since the trade those
figures have improved considerably, to 0.901 for the former measure
and 0.896 for the latter.
The graph shows that Pickard’s linear trend with the Oilers has
been upward, largely due to the good play since the trade. That
said, his post-trade sample of games (6 in all) is relatively small,
so it should be taken with a measure of caution.
Pickard won 3 out of the 6 post-trade games, for a win percentage
of 50%. In terms of points, he has played net for 6 of 12, also for
a points average of 50%.
For the Oilers earlier in the year, his win percentage in 10 games
was 30%, with his points percentage coming in at 40%.
So, as far as Pickard’s play goes, the trade has worked out
fairly well so far for him. His save percentages, win percentages
and points percentages have improved. However, it is a small sample
size, so that may change as the season progresses.
It is not clear how long the Oilers can afford to carry three
goalies. Pickard’s improved performances have made that a tougher
call. He could be picked up by some other team, should they choose
to send him to the AHL affilate. Arguably, his post-trade play has
made that a greater possibility than it had been earlier in the year.
Overall Result
The data support the idea that the Oilers have indeed improved
their goaltending situation by the trade.
As for the Penguins, they may have taken a slight hit from the
trade.
However, it is still early days, so those results could change.
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A Dark Horse
In “A
Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead
him to make
a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just
a string of unnaturally good luck?
The
story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about
8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is
occasionally on free promotion.
U.S.:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
U.K.:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Germany:
https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
France:
https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Italy:
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Netherlands:
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Spain:
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Japan:
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India:
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Mexico:
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Brazil:
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Canada:
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Australia:
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Here’s an
interesting review from Goodreads
(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of
the review until very recently – You can look up the review on
Goodreads, if you like)
A Dark Horse
Every gambler is
bound to run out of luck eventually, right?
By far my
favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased
with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a
single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew
exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the
next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark
horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love
getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.
It
would have been helpful to have more character development in this
short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time
spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble
connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them
and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter
what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt
comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well
done.
I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at
all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared
about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble
walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these
topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more
about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from
betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of
empathy for folks in his position.
A Dark Horse – A
Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season
and beyond.
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The Magnetic Anomaly – A Science Fiction Novel
The novel version of The Magnetic
Anomaly is now available on Amazon (ebook, print version, also
audible version soon to come).
Summary
Two young Earth
scientists, Alex and Mary, get caught up in a vast conflict, based on
an accidental finding that they make at a diamond exploration camp in
the far north. Eventually, this discovery leads them on a perilous
quest and involvement in an interstellar war, a conflict of literally
cosmic proportions with a rogue AI, which considers itself duty-bound
to destroy sentient life (or, from its point of view, liberate
sentient life).
During
this time, they encounter a variety of enigmatic persons, as well as
other entities, all of whom are also engaged in this struggle. With
some of them they end up allying; with others, they contend in deadlyconflict.
The struggle takes them around the world, and eventually into the
far reaches of the solar system.
During this time
their relationship continues to evolve and deepen. Circumstances
demand that they grow in courage and confidence, though within the
scope of (mostly) normal people, as has been the case for countless
people throughout history.
The story also
showcases some historical events, relating to different versions of
what went on in Antarctica, shortly after World War 2. Several
versions of these events, official and unofficial UFO lore are given.
This becomes a springboard to much of the action. Some
philosophical and scientific concepts are also explored, though not
in such a way as to get in the way of the plot.
Amazon:
U.S.:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F9J3HHFW
UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0F9J3HHFW
Canada:
https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0F9J3HHFW
France:
https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0F9J3HHFW
Italy:
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Netherlands:
https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0F9J3HHFW
Spain:
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Japan:
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Mexico:
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Australia:
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Germany:
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India:
https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0F9J3HHFW
Brazil:
https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0F9J3HHFW
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