Wednesday, 22 April 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

Twenty-Two

22 – Billy Budd’s (Feb 6, 2026)

Introduction

This blog and some following blogs are sections from an informal diary of “visits to the race-track” at a particular time and place, by a person who has followed the races with varying levels of participation over a long period. These relate primarily to some visits to the track and/or off-track betting venues in the 2025 period and onward. They contain observations about the activity, both specific and general. Although these remarks are personal, they also reflect general cultural and historical trends, as they have impacted horse-racing, wagering and culture in general.

The setting is Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (population of about one million plus). However, I imagine that the observations would apply to many places in the world, as they are a reflection of how changing trends in technology, globalization and culture in general have affected this ancient and honourable activity of horse-racing.

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

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22 – Billy Budd’s (Feb 6, 2026)
- I entered upon this trip to the off-track horseracing joint, with a feeling of trepidation. I had come out ahead for 3 straight visits, so I felt it must be time for a reckoning. Things had been too good.
- This visit was on a Friday, since I had other duties to perform on Saturday. However, there was a fairly good crowd at Budd’s, at least for the first part of the afternoon. I does seem like the lunch special draws people in.
- The first order of business was the Santa Anita races. I have had rather good luck with this track. Would my luck change? Read on to see:
  - We were a bit too late to put down any bets on Race 1 at Santa Anita. It was a Maiden Claiming race, with almost all the horses making their first run. As it turned out, the race was taken by the horse that my system would have picked, though it was the only horse that actually had a race in the past performance form. The rest only had workouts. So, though my horse won, I might well have skipped the race, due to the lack of information.
  - Race 2 had a couple of evenly matched horses on top, in my figuring. Neither went off at particularly good odds, so I really should have skipped the race. But I went ahead anyway, choosing the number 4 horse, which had the higher odds. It got into a real speed duel with the 5 horse, which led for most of the way, but the 5 overtook it in the stretch. All the horses had low payouts, nothing over $3 on a $2 bet. That was hardly suprising, as it was a short field of only five horses.
  - Race 3 was similar. The top horse under my figures went off at just under even money, but I took a flier on it anyway. It came in third, show money amounting to a cool dime. Once again, it was a short field of only five horses.
  - Race 4 continued the trend. My pick (#6) went off a decent odds, and led for most of the race. But it faded a bit at the end, being beaten by half a length by the #2 horse. That was unfortunate, as my horse paid nearly even money to place, so the win ticket would have been nice. But it was not to be.
  - Race 5 went off in the same fashion as well. The #3 horse had nice numbers and went off at a decent price. I decided to bet conservatively and had a place ticket on it. It led most of the way, but faded in the stretch to come in third. This was getting annoying.
  - By Race 6 I was getting desperate to pick up some sort of victory, so I actually bet show on the race. This was something of a rarity, but I thought I might as well take the full treatment, as I was sure that the racing gods were out to teach me some humility. My horse had long odds and led much of the way, but died (not faded, died) in the stretch. The horse that won (#4) ran quite a nice race, pulling away in the stretch to win by a good 3 seconds. So, at least the race was interesting. The race had a fairly good purse (35K) and claiming price (50K), so there was some quality there.
  - Race 7 spared my feelings, ensuring that I never had a chance. My pick had really good numbers by my system andd went off at excellent odds. Sometimes the system picks such a dark horse to come in, but not this time. It finished so far back that it didn’t even finish in the dust, as there was time for the dust to settle.
  - By Race 8 I was feeling pretty gloomy. My preferred horse had numbers that outclassed the rest of the field and went off at somewhat respectable odds of 3 to 2. By some miracle it came in first, paying out the stated odds. That cut my losses for the day, which was a relief.
  - Race 9 went back to the earlier pattern, with my horse coming in a fairly distant fourth.
  - There was no tenth race today. So that was it – seven losses, one win and one shut-out. Many of my losses were close. Some days they come in, other days they don’t. It’s like hockey – some games your team’s pucks go in and other games they keep hitting the post.
- So, with Santa Anita over, it was time to try our luck at the bucket-pullers of Woodbine. I am slowly warming up to these races, though I have previously disdained them. But my brother’s enthusiasm for the harness-races is contagious, so I have even begun a systematic study of the situation, reading a few books and booting up the computer for a serious research project. I am hoping that it is possible to figure these beasts (and their drivers) out. Time will tell.
- I won’t go through a race-by-race account of Woodbine/Mohawk, but will hit a few interesting highlights:
  - Craig and I usually have a rolling Win-3 on the go, during the Harnies. One of these ventures became quite interesting. Craig has a fondness for the number 6 at Woodbine/Mohawk. And looking the statistics that I have been gathering it is true that there seems to be a track bias towards the 6. So, we had a 6-All-6 Win 3 going in the 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th races.
    - Number 6 won the 3^rd race, paying $4.40 to win. That meant we were alive to the Win-3.
    - The middle race was the "All" bet, so we would be alive after that race regardless of who won. But, the winner of that race paid $73.40 to win, setting up potentially lucrative Win-3. That was a 6 horse.
    - For the last leg, we had the 6 horse again. It was bet down to almost way under even money, from 3 to 1 on the morning line. That is generally a sign of a nearly sure-thing at the Woodbine bucket-pullers. Furthermore, it had a very good driver and its trainer had a very good win percentage, also excellent signs.
    - But it got nipped at the wire, not quite a photo finish but close. So there went our lucrative Win-3, up in smoke.
    - Craig noted that it would have been a 6-6-6 Win-3, a very inauspicious number. I suppose – it certainly seemed diabolical, to lose like that.
  - A few races later, we had another Win-3 going, this one for much more meagre odds.
    - In the 6^th race we had the winner, the 7 horse, which paid $4.50 to win. Not great odds for the first leg of a Win-3, but acceptable.
    - In the 7^th race we had bet "All", with the 6 horse coming in at $6.20 to win. Again, not great odds, but respectable.
    - In the 8^th race we had tickets on 4 and 7 horses, and the 4 came in to win. That paid only $3.90, but a win is a win.
    - So, we got that Win-3 (or Pick-3, another name for the bet). However, it only paid about $30 on a $2 ticket. Sort of a moral victory, I suppose.
- Now, for a few random notes on the day in general.
  - Craig insisted on using the evil voucher machine again.
    - That’s the machine that he tends to have bad luck with (I avoid it altogether). It ate a $17 voucher, which was enough to get the staff to dig out his ticket and retire the machine for the day. I heard some other horse-players grumbling about it as well.
    - I said to Craig that he reminds me of the guy in the Kids in the Hall skit, who keeps ordering the kabob at some function, only to get food poisoning. After being treated, he returns to the party, and orders the kabob again. This happens half a dozen times or so.
    - I think the point of the KITH skit is that the guy is trying to impress a chick at the party. As for Craig, I think he just wants to make sure the machine gets fixed. This gets the site’s attention. Eventually, someone will give in, and replace or repair the machine.
  - The opening ceremony at the Winter Olympics was on one of the television above the bar. To be honest, it seemed kind of tedious to me. I usually find these ceremony events a little too earnest and boring. But I suppose for the athletes, it is pretty cool. And it gives the media something to talk about.
  - There was a youngish middle-aged woman betting on the horses most of the day. You don’t see that very often, as horse-racing seems to be a very male-dominated past-time She sat alone, in an area just off the regular horse-racing section, but in a place where the screens were easily viewable. She was well-dressed (includinng librarian glasses) and acted rather lady-like, though by the end of the day she was looking a bit more coquettish. But, maybe that was due to the fact that I had had three beers by the end of the day. I wasn’t hitting on her or anything, it is just nice to see some women enjoying the horses. Funny thing is, I have probably known more women who rode horses than bet on them.
- Here are a few random facts about harness horses (standardbreds) that I picked up from the book I bought:
  - There are two styles of running, the pace and the trot. In a pace, the horse’s legs on the same side of its body work in tandem. In a trot, the diagonal front and back legs work together.
  - In any given race, all the horses have to run the same way, either a pace or a trot.
  - The pace is a faster mode of running than the trot. Over a mile, that amounts to a difference of about 3 seconds (equivalent to about 15 lengths).
  - If a horse ‘breaks’ (goes off the stipulated running style) it is disqualified. To prevent this, horses usually wear ‘hopplets’, which make it difficult for the horse to break into a gallop.
  - Of course, standardbreds are both bred and trained to run in the appropriate style.
  - These horses are said to have rather nice dispositions and enjoy being around people. That is in contradistinction to thoroughbreds, which are often (but not always) somewhat cantankerous.
- As usual, the devil horses of Australia came on the scene, which was our cue to leave.
- In summary, it was a losing day, though not a shut-out. Many of the losses were ‘near-run things’, including what would have been a fairly lucrative Win-3. So it goes.

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And here are a couple of short books you might like.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

Every gambler is bound to run out of luck eventually, right?

By far my favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.

It would have been helpful to have more character development in this short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well done.

I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of empathy for folks in his position.

A Dark Horse – A Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season and beyond.

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And here is an account of a summer job on the railroad, during my undergraduate years.

One Summer Working on the Railroad

What follows is anaccount of a few weeks one long-ago summer, when I was 19 and was working for the Canadian National Railway (CNR) on a railroad construction gang, in the wilds of north-central British Columbia, Canada.

The journal is in the form of a letter, that was never sent. Decades later, I think it has an interesting historical resonance. At times I come off like a callow youth – I plead guilty as charged. I swore a lot more in those days than I do now, but in places the writing is surprisingly good, at least in my humble opinion. And the story has a compelling narrative arc.

There were a lot of interesting and dramatic events that occurred – a number of industrial accidents being the most serious. There were also some colorful characters on the crew, which resulted in some dramatic and at times amusing conflicts and altercations. I perhaps flatter myself by including myself in that number. Or perhaps I condemn myself – I’m not sure.

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

The memoir/journal is about 9,000 words, a length that can usually be read in an hour or so. It is priced at 99 cents U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and is free on Kindle Unlimited. Periodically, it will be offered as a free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Tuesday, 21 April 2026

Meeting the Former Waitress

Did you ever have one of those odd meetings with someone from your past, someone who remembered you on sight, but for whom it took you a while to place them within your memory?

Well, my wife Helena and I were walking to the neighborhood restaurant one day, for our weekly lunch with our son, who lives nearby and was working from home that day. A youngish woman got off a city bus, which was stopping to let people off a short distance ahead of us. She seemed a bit lost, looking around at her surroundings.

As we walked near her, she stopped us and asked us whether we used to go to a different restaurant, about a mile away, called the Garneau Pub and Plato’s Pizza. We said that we did and she said that she thought so, adding that she used to waitress there, and remembered us, noting that we came in once a week or so. We agreed that was indeed one of our weekly outings.

I said that I seemed to remember her now and asked if she knew how the proprietor of the establishment was doing. The place had shut down during the Covid lockdown era. That said, the owner was getting on in years.

She said that "Jimmy is gone now".

I asked "gone, as in left the planet?" That was an expression that one of my brothers used, to indicate that someone had died.

"Yes," she said, intuiting my meaning. "Once he was gone, his brothers couldn’t keep the place up on their own – he was the glue that had held things together."

She also asked about our son, who often joined us at our afternoons at the Garneau Pub, as he was a university student at the nearby university at this time. We said that we were just going to meet him for lunch, at Rick and Alice’s Grill, which was only a few hundred feet distant, as we were now in the parking lot of a strip-mall that housed that establishment.

She said, "I remember him, he was a nice guy."

I told her that he lived nearby in a condo. Thoughts of her as a daugher-in-law crossed my mind, as Scott is still single and very eligible (he has a very good job as well as several university degrees).

She also said that she remembered us as writers. That was unusual for me; sure I write some, but more as a hobby than a profession. My wife, on the other hand, has internalized that identity for herself, so it was an apt description for her. She has written several novels, which continue to get sales and downloads on Amazon. My more modest contribution to the family business does well enough, but not to the same extent as Helena's. Anyway, it was surprising to have someone identify us in that fashion – I suppose she must have heard Helena and I talking about it over wine and pizza.

She then took her leave, saying that she had gotten off the bus at that location by accident, as the stop she wanted was about ten blocks up. She said "I don’t know why I got off so soon."

There seemed to be something slightly portentous about the incident, but I don’t know what it was. One never knows. She did mention that she eats at Rick and Alice’s sometimes, so perhaps we will meet again some day. Maybe in some future, she and Scott get together. It is a nice dream anyway.

And below is a novel written by my wife about a lost young woman.

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Kati of Terra Book 1 – Escape from the Drowned Planet

Amazon U.S: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00811WVXO

Amazon U.K.: http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00811WVXO

Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B00811WVXO

Amazon Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B00811WVXO

In saving her small son from alien abductors, a 24-year-old Earth woman, Katie, finds herself abducted instead. She awakens from a drug-induced coma on a spaceship, in a room full of children, both human and alien, and two other women, younger than she is. The young women adapt to the situation as best they can, keeping the youngsters calm and entertained. But, when a drugged alien man wearing a uniform is added to the captive cargo, it becomes clear that this is an intergalactic slave operation.

The slave traders implant their captives with “translation nodes” in order to allow communication among various groups. These are living entities, normally docile, merely enhancing certain brain functions, such as language acquisition. However, Katie discovers that she has accidentally received a very special “granda node”, a long-lived node with its own cantankerous personality, including a fondness for criminality and lethal weaponry. Fortunately for Katie, it also values its freedom. With its help, she escapes on a fringe planet, dragging the peace officer along—also at the granda’s suggestion.

She finds herself on a strange world, with a somewhat deranged personality, quite possibly a killer, in her head, and partnered with a man from an advanced civilization who abhors killing. He is a Federation Peace Officer, captured by the slavers while attempting to bring them to justice. His task is complicated by the fact that he has sworn to avoid the taking of sentient life during the performance of his duties. He can and does, however, make vigorous use of non-lethal weaponry. Since, before leaving the ship, Katie had promised to help her co-captives gain their liberty, she and the alien peace officer find that they have a common cause.

But first they must find their way off the primitive planet and get to the Federated Civilization, avoiding the slavers who have been left on the planet to re-capture them. Their flight is complicated by the fact that the planet has had a global warming catastrophe some centuries back – the locals refer to it as the Drowned World. This has forced the inhabitants to revert to a pre-industrial state of development; however, they are a wily and resourceful people, mostly helpful, but they can also be dangerous.

Kati (to mark her escape, she adopts a slight name change) and Mikal seek a Federation beacon, which had been hidden on this planet ages ago, to aid in situations such as this, (in accord with a longstanding Federation policy for fringe worlds). They must embark on an arduous trek across two continents and an ocean, seeking the temple that holds the beacon. They travel on foot, by cart, by riverboat, by tall sailing ship, and on pack animals, always pursued by the dangerous slavers.

They must rely on their wits, guile, charm and acting abilities to avoid recapture, while their chasers have advanced technology and ruthlessness on their side. Fortunately, they are able to make many friends who help them along the way, and their quest becomes a series of adventures, both frightening and funny, and involving a cast of engaging characters.

To complicate matters, Kati finds herself falling in love with Mikal, the strange, handsome and amusing alien. He seems to be reciprocating, though they both struggle against an untimely romantic entanglement.

Will Kati and Mikal escape from the Drowned Planet? Can they ultimately bring the slavers to justice, as Mikal has sworn to do? Can they free the remaining captives of the slavers, as Kati has promised to do? Read this book and the rest of the series to find out all.

At about 200,000 words (equivalent to a paperback of about 400 pages), the book is an excellent value.

Wednesday, 15 April 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number Twenty-One 21 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 31, 2026)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

Twenty-One

21 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 31, 2026)

Introduction

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

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21 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 31, 2026)
- We took a week off from the races, as Craig and his wife were invited to a relative’s place; meanwhile I was suffering from a minor virus. But everthing was back to normal by the next weekend, so it was back to Billy Budd’s for some horseracing fun.
- It was a Saturday, so there was a big crowd at the horseracing section of Budd’s. They must have a good lunch special on Saturdays.
- In fact, it was actually a full-house near the screens, so we had to sit for a while at an off-screen table. But that was ok, as it gave me a chance to annotate a program for Santa Anita, to assist in later crunching of numbers, and for Craig to peruse the bucket-pullers of Woodbine/Mohawk.
- By keeping a close watch on the horseracing section, I soon detected a couple of seats opening up. I checked it out with some friendly older gents who were sitting nearby those seats, who gave us thumbs-up to move in. One fellow said he hoped that "moving his ass" would bring him a bit of luck. Sure, why not.
- I don’t know if it brought him any luck, but it seemed to work for me, at least on the Santa Anita races:
  - For the first and second races at Santa Anita, I was shut-out, due to the lack of seating.
  - On the third race, my numers showed two horses as clear choices. Feeling a bit cautious, I picked the one with lower odds, though still remarkably good odds. It and the other horse the numbers liked, dueled it out with my choice narrowly winning. I must confess, however, that I had bet my horse to place, so it didn’t really matter much to me. But it paid a surprisingly nice price to place, so I didn’t kick myself too hard.
  - In the fourth race, there were three horses with very comparable figures. It was also a short field. So, I took a flyer on one of them, whose odds seemed good. Again, I wimped out, putting down show money. It actually won and paid a nice price to win, a little over 3 to 1. But the show ticket was a joke, not doing much more than paying for the bet. Clearly, a lot of people had bet the same as I had. So it goes.
  - The fifth race had only one horse with high numbers, by my system, as two others with good numbers had been scratched. With odds of nearly 10 to 1, I could hardly say no. But I did scale my bet down a bit, as I assumed the crowd must know something that I did’t know. Apparently they didn’t, as my horse came in first and payed-off very nicely on my win ticket.
  - Picking three races in a row was starting to feel a bit spooky.
  - The sixth race was a Maiden Special Weight race, meaning none of the horses had won a race in their life yet. In fact, only one of them had actually even run a race. The others had no form at all, other than workouts. I don’t really know how to evaluate workouts, so I was inclined to skip the race. But there was a big odds-drop on one horse, so I took a shot on it and the horse that had run a race previously, putting a token bet on an exactor (that means a smaller than normal bet, though honestly all my bets are token bets by a serious player’s standard). Anyway, that duo came in, so I picked up some more token winnings.
  - I got shut-out on the seventh race, as I was printing off a program for the Woodbine/Mohawk harness races, when the printer ran out of paper. That necessitated getting a staff member to refill the machine. It reminded me of office-days, waiting on the secretary to refill the printer (some offices didn’t trust just anyone to fill the printer, even when they were highly-skilled data scientists/analysts). That took a bit of time, which made me miss the race. I probably would have bet the winner on that race, based on my numbers, but that is just a hypothetical.
  - The eighth and ninth race sent me back to the real world, since neither of my horses were in the money.
  - There was no tenth race, so that was it for Santa Anita.
- With the thoroughbreds of Santa Anita complete, I could now indulge myself in a libation or two. My firm rule is to avoid any alcohol during the thoroughbred session, as it can inflame one’s animal spirits (as John Maynard Keynes put it), thus leading to non-optimal betting strategies. However, I will indulge a bit for the harness races.
- Here’s another observation, inspired by Keynes.
- The cute young waitress who served our section had an accent, which everyone seemed to remark upon. Most people thought she must be from Australia or New Zealand, but no, she was actually from England. She added that her home town was near Wales, so that probably gave her accent a bit of a Welsh tilt, which people were mistaking for Australia.
- The older gent who sat next to us bantered with her over the accent. He expressed some surprise that she came to Canada rather than going to Australia. I suppose that was in reference to the weather, though perhaps he meant that her accent would blend well with the locals down under. However, she said that English people are often quite curious about Canada, maybe even moreso than Australia.
- With the larger crowd, there were more people chatting and cheering their horses on:
  - A voice from down below:
    - "Is that the five on the rail coming up fast?"
    - "The six quit on me! Damn it!"
    - (this fellow must have been watching a different screen than I was, because coincidentally the six did not quit on me, as that was about the same time as I won a 10 to 1 bet on a six horse).
  - Some well-dressed middle-aged ladies across the way, not too excitable:
    - "My mouth gets dry when I eat chocolate."
    - "Was that your horse that just won?"
    - "I suppose it probably was. Well, I guess we can leave now."
  - Some serious handicappers below us (maybe insiders, referring to the local harness races):
    - "That horse was just loping. Just loping and he still won."
    - "Just look at his fractions."
    - "Yeah, just great fractions."
    - "No surprise, the trainer is a very sharp guy."
    - "And the driver is one of the best around."
    - "Yeah, piece of cake."
- We now directed our attention to the harness races at Woodbine/Mohawk.
- I had been doing some analysis of the bucket-pullers over the previous week or so. It involved a fair bit of tedious spreadsheet setup and data entry. With only four cards (ten races in each, so about forty races), there weren’t any obvious angles with speed ratings and such.
- However, I did detect a very significant signal from large odds-drops. This has long been something that players watch for, assuming that it means inside information, whether of the honest of scurrilous sort.
- So, I paid special attention to that during this card. It was still a useful angle, though not profitable on this day.
- Nonetheless, we picked up a few winners, so I kept most of my profits from Santa Anita intact. Craig located a triactor ticket that he hadn’t realized was a winner, so he recovered most of his losses too (it was a so-so payoff).
- Most of the crowd had thinned out, but a couple (man and woman) came into one of the horseracing section booths. It seemed like an odd choice, as it was quite empty now. But, perhaps they didn’t want to be seen, so a mostly empty horseracing section would be just the ticket. Hardly anyone present and those that were there were focussed on the horses.
- Near the end of the harness races, a new waitress came on shift. so she asked how we were doing with the horses. We gave a non-committal shrug, while she stared at the screen and said "I know nothing about this." Me neither.
- Then the devil-horses of Australia came on the screen. Time to go.
- I won most of the thoroughbred races at Santa Anita and lost most of the harness races at Woodbine/Mohawk, but kept a reasonable profit for the day anyway.
- And that about sums it up for this trip.

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And here are a couple of short books you might like.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

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And here is an account of cycling the Kettle Valley Rail-Trail:

A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GBG8JE0
U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01GBG8JE0
India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01GBG8JE0

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01GBG8JE0

The book is only 99 cents U.S. (equivalent price in other currencies). It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

The Kettle Valley Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic biking and hiking trails in Canada. It covers a good stretch of the south-central interior of British Columbia, about 600 kilometers of scenic countryside. British Columbia is one of the most beautiful areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country, ideal for those who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in the great outdoors.

The trail passes through a great variety of geographical and geological regions, from mountains to valleys, along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry near-desert condition grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned by a combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes through wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite low, in populated valleys, alongside spectacular water features such as beautiful Lake Okanagan, an area that is home to hundreds of vineyards, as well as other civilized comforts.

The trail is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits and adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness. The views are spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people are friendly. What more could one ask for?

What follows is a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail in the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours reading), and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are also sections containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora and fauna, and associated information.

Tuesday, 7 April 2026

The Gambler’s Fallacy vs Regression to the Mean - Can a Bet be "Due to Win"

In statistics, betting, and life in general, we are often faced with the dilemma of what seem to be unusual streaks of bad or good luck. When these occur, it is natural to wonder when the streak will end, whether it will be soon or whether the wait will be interminable. It is natual to wonder, "Am I due for a change in luck?" From there, it is an easy transition to decide "I must be due".

Here is a story. This happened to me recently while betting the thoroughbreds at Santa Anita racetrack. To be precise, it was the horses that were at that California racetrack. I was at a local off-track racing venue of my hometown. But the illusion of ‘being there’ can be strong, especially when caught in the moment of a lucky or unlucky streak.

In my case it was the latter. I had bet 7 straight races, using a handicapping method that had worked surprisingly well during the previous two dozen forays to the track. It involved some fairly rigorous mathematical techniques and was well-grounded in the realities of horseracing (a speed handicapping method of my own invention). In all 7 races my horse had lost, with only a couple even being vaguely close. This was highly unusual, given the method’s previous success rate.

With the final race on deck, I had to dip into some cash reserves, which I hadn’t had to do for quite some time, as I had been playing with previous winnings up until then. I was tempted to skip the final race, but then I decided against it. You might just as well finish the job, I thought. I walked up to the betting machine to purchase a win ticket for the final race, with the grim forboding of a person stuck in a losing streak.

Then the thought occurred to me – "I must be due, there is no way this losing streak can continue. It seems so obvious. Plus, I have just bought a fresh betting voucher and have more than adequate financial resources anyway. So, why not step up the bet and win it all back?"

This, I proceeded to do.

The race was confusing. The colours that the horses were wearing were difficult to make out in the stretch drive. In fact, I made the notation in a small notebook: "Lost. Also ran. Back of field." So, it looked like I wasn’t due, after all.

But then the fellow next to me said "It looks like the 6 won."

"What’s that?" I thought. "That can’t be – I bet on the 6!"

But he was right. I had mistaken the colours of the 2 horse and the 6 horse. So I was due! Not only that, I had stepped up my bet by enough to cover all my previous losses, with some to spare.

So, was I due or was I not due? Or does that even make sense?

The Gambler’s Fallacy

In an introductory statistics course, you are likely to be introduced to the notion of the gambler’s fallacy. An example of this is coin flipping. If you flip a coin a fairly large number of times, and heads comes up more often than tails, it seems intuitively obvious that you can safely bet on tails and win the game (at least until things equal out).

Unfortunately, that is not a good strategy, as the coin doesn’t have a memory – it doesn’t know that tails are due. In the long run, the percentage of heads vs tails will tend to 50:50, but that can take a long time. Indeed, the preponderance of heads can continue to grow in raw numbers, even as the percentage of heads drops and approaches 50%. This does seem rather counter-intuitive, but it can be proved mathematically via the use of something called the mean value theorem.

Regression to the Mean

This is a different but related concept. Basically, it says that in some complex process (more complicated than coin-flipping), if a participant begins to perform much better (or worse) than its long-term average, the participant will regress back towards that average (fairly soon). So, for example, a hockey player on a heater (e.g. scoring streak) will likely go back to his long-term scoring, given enough time. Same for a horse (or some category of horse) at the race track. It is also works in genetics, where offspring tend to revert back to their ancestors in some characteristic, short of selective breeding.

How is this different from coin-tossing. I would venture to say that it is different because these processes do have a memory. Hockey players who go on a heater will generally be having some puck-luck, which can create as a high confidence level, at least temporarily. Opponents will become aware of the player’s scoring streak and actively try to subvert it (that’s what the game is all about). He will be shadowed by the opposing team’s best checker. He may be singled out for some rough play. The player’s confididence may then drop, as will his performance.

Similarly for horseraces. The horse has a memory, though it is difficult to say how much that affects a horse. However, trainers and jockeys definitely have memories that will affect the process. A hot horse may get better treatment from trainers and jockeys, thus helping its win streak. On the other hand, it may be run too often and get physically worn out. Its betting odds will drop, which may motivate trainers and jockeys to darken its form, so as to improve its odds. Horses running against it will have better odds, which may ensure that jockeys and trainers go to extra lengths to beat the hot horse.

So, basically, there are multiple participants in these types of complex games, all with their own goals and strategies (thousands to millions in the stock market). The combination of these actor’s strategies will tend to cancel each other out, thus tending to bring all the opponens back to long-term performance metrics.

Conclusion

So, which phenomenon prevails? The Gambler’s Fallacy (don’t base actions on the notion of something being ‘due’) or Regression to the Mean (you probably can base actions on something being due).

I don’t really know. I am conflicted. But I think it is probably a reasonable strategy for complex games (sports, stock markets, predictive markets) but not for relatively simple games.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here are a couple of short works that you might enjoy, if these matters interest you.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here is an account of a summer job on the railroad, during my undergraduate years.

One Summer Working on the Railroad

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Friday, 27 March 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number 20 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 16, 2026)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

Twenty

20 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 16, 2026)

Introduction

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

======================================================================

20 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 16, 2026)
- We ended up skipping a week, as my brother Craig had some other appointments to deal with and my son Scott was back to work, after taking some time off during the Christmas season. But it was back to Budd’s for a Friday session of thoroughbreds at Santa Anita and bucket-pullers at Woodbine/Mohawk.
- They must have a pretty good lunch special on Fridays at this place, as there has usually been a fairly decent ‘crowd’ at the horse-betting part of the tavern on these days. Today there were about a dozen people watching, mostly older gentlemen.
- We got there in time for the races at Santa Anita. I like this track, or perhaps it likes me. Looking back on these diaries, I perceive that I have made money or broke even on five occasions at Santa Anita and I don’t see any money-losing days there. However, there are a few outings where I didn’t bother recording the track that I was betting at.
- We were shut-out for the first race. That was just as well, as the winner was not the highest rated horse in the race, by my figures (though close).
- In the second race, my preferred horse wasn’t even close. The win and place horses were both short-priced, anyway. The winner paid 2.80/2.10/2.10, so not a bet that could make you money in the long run.
- The third race was similar, with my horse not in the money. The winner did pay a good price, however, and had the highest speed ratings by my system, though lower Beyers numbers. The same was true of the horse that came in second. So, I should have had an exactor there, had I stuck with my system. Well, that’s easy to say once the race has been run and you pour through your handicapping –"aha!, I actually had that one (though I didn’t bet on it)".
- One of the fellows playing the horses was a true gentleman, as Craig had forgotten to retrieve one of his vouchers from the machine after the third race, due to having to struggle with that machine’s poor paper-cutting. The fellow asked us if we had left a voucher in the machine, as he was the next person to use that machine, and had found the voucher. Craig said he did forget the voucher (he had already mentioned it to me) and the fellow gave it to him. It wasn’t a lot of money (a bit over ten bucks), but it showed a lot of class on this fellow’s part. I hope the racing gods rewarded him appropriately later, with a nice win. But they are fickle gods, so I wouldn’t count on it.
- I was shut-out again, for the fourth race. Once more, I was lucky, as my preferred horse was nowhere near the money. These were some of the best bets of the day!
- The fifth race was on the turf (grass). Andy Beyers says that turf races don’t handicap well, as far as speed handicapping goes. This race supported his observation, as my pick ended up out of the money.
- About this time, a group of older guys near us had a very long discussion about the merits of laser eye surgery. One of the waitresses joined in the debate. They were all very knowledgeable, having had the surgery themselves, or having had someone close to them have it. The consensus was that it worked quite well, but the prices were high and unpredictable. The things you learn at the races.
- By that point, things were getting kind of grim. Half a card was over, and still no wins. But the 6^th race had a very obvious choice, with speed numbers far exceeding the rest of the field. For some reason that I couldn’t fathom, the crowd was laying off this horse, which meant it had amazingly good odds at post-time. That threw me a bit, so I jammed out and bet it to place. It did indeed win, paying a very healthy $21.20 to win and $7.00 to place. That was enough to cover my losses for the day, though it would have been nice to cash a 11 to 1 win ticket.
- With that winning bet, I allowed myself a beer, Rickards Red. Craig had one as well. We chatted a bit more than we did during the other races. I pointed out that the Oilers goalie situation had improved remarkably since they traded their goalie to the Penguins, getting the Penguins goalie in return. Since then, all of the goalies in question had been playing well, but the Oilers were doing better by the trade.
- Speaking of hockey and horses, it turns out that Oilers star Ryan Nugent-Hopkins comes from a horse-racing family and one of his horses won a major stakes race in Ontario (he’s from B.C.). Here’s Nuge with his horse.
- At any rate, this hockey digression (and the beer) was so interesting that when we eventually looked up at the screen, we saw that the 7^th race was already being run. Once more, I was saved by the shut-out, as the winner was a huge ($40) longshot that was very difficult to predict. I had worked my numbers for the race, and the winner had no obvious virtues.
- The 8^th and final race of the card had ten horses running, and they all had plenty of past performances in the form. So, by the time I worked out my numbers, the race was ready to go and I was once more shut-out. But again, that turned out to be a blessing, as the horses with the best number didn’t do anything. That said, the horses that ended up in the money did not have great odds, so one wonders if some sort of betting coup might have been going on. The last race of the card seems to be that way, in my experience.
- By this time, it was getting around 6:00 p.m.. Things were picking up, the bar was getting noisy and the hockey game was on. And it was time to play the bucket-pullers at Woodbine/Mohawk!
- I started working out some speed figures for the harness races, beginning with Race #5. Craig had already beeen playing some of these races, so I kicked in a few bucks to get some of the action. But they were what Byers calls token bets (or Mickey-Mouse bets), so it was just for a few laughs to pass the time.
- We had a series of rolling Pick-3 bets going. They would get close, we would be alive to the final leg, then be brought down to Earth.
- But the last Pick-3, races 10, 11, and 12 came through for us, though at an admittedly small price. We also put a bit on the winner, as a straight win bet. Those were enough to cover my bets, with a bit to spare, so once more, I left the track with more money than I came with (aside from three beers).
- Craig has observed that the Woodbine/Mohawk harness track has a bias to the number 6 starting position. And, as it turned out our winning Pick-3 was 6-All-6, so it turned out to support his theory.
- I wondered why this could be. Craig said it was because the 6-horse went quickly for the lead, to prevent going wide into the first turn and wasting energy. Well, that is true, but for me the question is why does the 6 horse win the starting race to the rail, when the inside horses should have the advantage?
- Perhaps there is a softer track along the rail at the start of the race, so the number six horse can get there, while the inner horses are held back by the softer ground. Then, once the number 6 horse is in the lead, it simply does not relinquish it. Perhaps the inside track is better in the back-stretch? It’s a mystery, assuming there is a big bias towards the 6^th position.
- As for other stuff during the bucket-pullers segment of the evening:
  - One younger guy sitting below us talked about being on blood thinners, beta blockers and cholesterol drugs since he was 35. I think it was a couple having dinner and playing a few races. It sounds like they had a dog that was suffering and might have to be put down. The fellow noted that his family had always been around horses, so he was used to this. It sounded like the woman’s family was having a hard time with the situation and he was trying to help out.
  - There was a lacrosse game being shown on one of the TV screens, as the horse-racing began to draw to a close in North America. It was a surprisingly large crowd at the game being broadcast. Maybe an Ivy league game in the northeastern states?
  - Huge snowflakes were falling at Woodbine. Perhaps that helped out our 6-All-6 bet.
  - Craig began reminiscing about the old days of racing at a real track downtown, and all the colourful cronies that were there.
  - The Australian ‘devil horses’ showed up on the screen again. That was a good signal that it was time to go.
    
    So it was a good day. Between Santa Anita and Woodbine/Mohawk I did a little better than break even for this week’s horse-racing outing.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01GBG8JE0

The book is only 99 cents U.S. (equivalent price in other currencies). It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it will be an experience you will never forget.