Monday, 23 February 2026

Updated: Goaltending Since the Oilers-Penguins Trade

Now that the Olympics are done, it is a good time to review how the Oilers-Penguins trade worked out, using a longer time-line than the previous blog.

Tristan Jarry Update

For reference, the last blog was when Jarry was at Game 20. At that time, things were looking pretty good for him. Since then, the graph has turned way down, including a couple of .750 games, though it has not all been bad (one .900 game). This up-and-down performance was also seen during his time with Pittsburgh, though his record was somewhat better there, to this point in time. That may be due to the Penguins playing a better defensive game than the Oilers, or it may just be the random variation that is not unusual in such data. Consistency, in any high level activity, is a lot harder than the average person thinks.

Overall, since the trade, Tristan has had 1 excellent game (a shutout), 4 very good games (around .900), 4 so-so games (around .850) and 2 stinkers (around .750).

Jarry is still above water since the trade, in terms of (actual points/possible points) = 64%. However, that’s a drop from 75%, which was his record since the trade in the original post. Interestingly, the 64% is exactly the same as his record with the Penguins, earlier in the season.

Stuart Skinner Update

Next, we will look at Stuart Skinner’s updated performance since the trade, since the trade was Jarry for Skinner. For reference, Stu’s last game before this graph was updated was game 32).

The 4 games since the original graph are similar to Jarry’s, in terms of the up-and-down nature of the data. He had two excellent games (around .950) and two howlers (both under .800). So, it could be argued that the teams traded one inconsistent goalie for a different inconsistent goalie.

Overall, since the trade, Stu has had 5 really good games (around .950), 2 pretty good games (around .900), 3 so-so games (around .850) and 3 howlers (below .800).

Skinner’s (actual points/possible points) = 66% since the trade, whereas it had been 57% in the original post. So, a decent improvement. For comparison, his record with the Oilers was 52%.

Conner Ingram Update

Next, we will look at Conner Ingram. Though he wasn’t part of the trade, the trade certainly affected his career path. For reference, his last game before the update of the graph was game 9, the shutout.

Since that time, Ingram has not done very well, either. Two games were semi-respectable and 2 were bad, below .800.

Calvin Pickard Update

Pickard has not played any Oilers games since the trade, though he was with the team for some of that time. However he was ultimately put on waivers, passed waivers, then sent down to the Oilers AHL team in Bakersfield, California. He hasn’t played since being sent down, as far as I know. It turns out the the farm team has a couple of very good goalie prospects, so it may be difficult to slot him in.

It is too bad, because he did make some really stand-out performances in the playoffs, during the previous couple of years, bailing out the team when Skinnter faltered. He is also known for being a good team player (‘good in the room’) and an overall nice guy. However, he is well into his 30s and has had a long and interesting career (it would make a good hockey book). Plus, even with relatively low pay for a hockey player, he had make a lot more money than 99% of the population did over that time. So there’s that.

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Original Post

The Edmonton Oilers hockey club has long been seen as having inconsistent goaltending – sometimes their goalies have been stellar, other times seemingly hopeless. The latest tandem to exhibit that tendency was Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. Many observers felt that more reliable goaltending would have led to at least one Stanley Cup victory, rather than a 7 and 6 game losses, as was the case in 2023-24 and 2024-25.

Thus, in mid-December 2025 they made a key goalie trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins, swapping Stuart Skinner for Tristan Jarry. As a side-effect of that trade, they also called up Conner Ingram from their AHL affiliate, since Jarry had experienced an injury shortly after the trade. The net effect (pun intended) was that they transitioned from Skinner-Pickard to Jarry-Ingram, with Calvin Pickard in a third goalie role, at least for a while, as insurance should one of the other two become injured again.

At the time of this blog, it has been a little over a month since the trade. So, how has it gone? Read below for some statistical evidence.

NOTE, next day: Hilariously enough, Oilers and Penguins played a game the very night that I published this blog and Jarry absolutely bombed (0.727 in that game), sending his save pct to 0.881 (from 0.904) in saves/shots and 0.878 (from 0.903) in average of game save percentages. His win pct dropped to 57% (from 67%), and his point pct went down to 64% (from 75%).

As I pointed out in the blog: his trend with the Oilers has only a limited number of games, so it should be taken with a large measure of caution.

Statisticians say this all the time, because it’s true.

Tristan Jarry

Jarry has played 6 games, as of Dec 21, 2026 for the Oilers. Previous to that, he had played 14 games with the Penguins. His Oilers save percentage since the trade has been over 0.900 , customarily thought of as an important benchmark. In terms of overall saves/shots, it is 0.904, while in terms of averaging the save percentage in each game, it is at 0.903. Note that the two methods can yield slightly different results, depending on how many outlier games the goalie has had (i.e. very much better or worse than usual).

His record with the Penguins this year, was not all that different from that with the Oilers, in terms of save percentage, at 0.909 for saves/shots and 0.895 when averaging the save percentages in each game. This result shows how the two methods can give different answers. That is further demonstrated by the high ups and downs of his Penguins games, as shown in the graph.

The graph shows that Jarry’s linear trend with the Penguins was slightly downward, while the trend with the Oilers it has been upward. That said, his trend with the Oilers has only a limited number of games, so it should be taken with a large measure of caution.

Jarry won 4 out of these 6 Oiler games, for a win percentage of 67%. In terms of points, he has played net for 9 of 12 potential points, for a points average of 75%.

For the Penguins earlier in the year, his win percentage in 14 games was 64%, with his points percentage coming in at 68%.

So, as far as Jarry’s play goes, the trade has worked out well so far for him and for the Oilers.

Stuart Skinner

Stuart Skinner has played 9 games with the Penguins, after having played 23 games with the Oilers previous to that. His Penguins save percentage since the trade has been a bit under 0.900. In terms of overall saves/shots, it is 0.891, while in terms of averaging the save percentage in each game, it is at 0.895. Note again that the two methods can yield different results, depending on how many outlier games the goalie has had (i.e. very much better or worse than usual).

The graph shows that Skinner’s linear trend with the Oilers was downward, while with the Penguins it has been upward. That said, his trend with the Penguins has only a limited number of games, so it should also be taken with a large measure of caution.

His record with the Oilers this year, was not as good as it has been with the Penguins. His Oilers save percentage was 0.891 for saves/shots and 0.872 when averaging the save percentages in each game. Again, this result shows how the two methods can give quite different answers. That is further demonstrated by the high ups and downs of his Oilers games, as shown in the graph. It is also the case that his games with the Penguins have had a fair bit of variance.

Skinner won 5 out of the 9 Penguin games, for a win percentage of 56%. In terms of points, he has played net for 10 of 18, also for a points average of 56%.

For the Oilers earlier in the year, his win percentage in 23 games was 48%, with his points percentage coming in at 57%.

So, as far as Skinner’s play goes, the trade has worked out well so far for him (higher save percentage), and it has probably been a slight loss for the Penguins. However, it is a small sample size, so that may change as the season progresses.

Conner Ingram

Conner Ingram was not directly involved in the trade, though it is probable that the trade did make his call-up from the AHL affiliate necessary. Since then, he has answered the bell quite decisively, with a 0.917 save percentage for the total saves/shots measure, and 0.920 for the average of averages measure.

The graph shows that Ingram’s linear trend with the Oilers has been upward. That said, it is a limited number of games (9 in all), so it should also be taken with a measure of caution.

Ingram has won 5 out of 9 starts, for a win percentage of 56%. In terms of points, he has played for 11 points out of a possible 18, for a points percentage of 61%.

So, as far as Ingram’s play goes, the trade has worked out well so far for him. It has resulted in him being called up to the NHL team, where he has posted an impressive save percentage as well as a very good win and points percentage. However, it is a small sample size, so that may change as the season progresses.

Calvin Pickard

Calvin Pickard was not part of the trade, but it has also had an impact on him. He had several starts while Jarry was injured, more than he otherwise would have had. Previous to the trade his save percentage was mediocre at best, with 0.851 in total saves/shots and 0.848 in average of game save percentages. Since the trade those figures have improved considerably, to 0.901 for the former measure and 0.896 for the latter.

The graph shows that Pickard’s linear trend with the Oilers has been upward, largely due to the good play since the trade. That said, his post-trade sample of games (6 in all) is relatively small, so it should be taken with a measure of caution.

Pickard won 3 out of the 6 post-trade games, for a win percentage of 50%. In terms of points, he has played net for 6 of 12, also for a points average of 50%.

For the Oilers earlier in the year, his win percentage in 10 games was 30%, with his points percentage coming in at 40%.

So, as far as Pickard’s play goes, the trade has worked out fairly well so far for him. His save percentages, win percentages and points percentages have improved. However, it is a small sample size, so that may change as the season progresses.

It is not clear how long the Oilers can afford to carry three goalies. Pickard’s improved performances have made that a tougher call. He could be picked up by some other team, should they choose to send him to the AHL affilate. Arguably, his post-trade play has made that a greater possibility than it had been earlier in the year.

Overall Result

The data support the idea that the Oilers have indeed improved their goaltending situation by the trade.

As for the Penguins, they may have taken a slight hit from the trade.

However, it is still early days, so those results could change.

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A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

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Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

Every gambler is bound to run out of luck eventually, right?

By far my favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.

It would have been helpful to have more character development in this short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well done.

I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of empathy for folks in his position.

A Dark Horse – A Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season and beyond.

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The Magnetic Anomaly – A Science Fiction Novel

The novel version of The Magnetic Anomaly is now available on Amazon (ebook, print version, also audible version soon to come).

Summary

Two young Earth scientists, Alex and Mary, get caught up in a vast conflict, based on an accidental finding that they make at a diamond exploration camp in the far north. Eventually, this discovery leads them on a perilous quest and involvement in an interstellar war, a conflict of literally cosmic proportions with a rogue AI, which considers itself duty-bound to destroy sentient life (or, from its point of view, liberate sentient life).

During this time, they encounter a variety of enigmatic persons, as well as other entities, all of whom are also engaged in this struggle. With some of them they end up allying; with others, they contend in deadlyconflict. The struggle takes them around the world, and eventually into the far reaches of the solar system.

During this time their relationship continues to evolve and deepen. Circumstances demand that they grow in courage and confidence, though within the scope of (mostly) normal people, as has been the case for countless people throughout history.

The story also showcases some historical events, relating to different versions of what went on in Antarctica, shortly after World War 2. Several versions of these events, official and unofficial UFO lore are given. This becomes a springboard to much of the action. Some philosophical and scientific concepts are also explored, though not in such a way as to get in the way of the plot.

Amazon:

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

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Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

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Tuesday, 17 February 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number Fifteen, Billy Budd’s (Nov 22, 2025)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number Fifteen

Billy Budd’s (Nov 22, 2025)

Introduction

This blog and some following blogs are sections from an informal diary of “visits to the race-track” at a particular time and place, by a person who has followed the races with varying levels of participation over a long period. These relate primarily to some visits to the track and/or off-track betting venues in the 2025 period and onward. They contain observations about the activity, both specific and general. Although these remarks are personal, they also reflect general cultural and historical trends, as they have impacted horse-racing, wagering and culture in general.

The setting is Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (population of about one million plus). However, I imagine that the observations would apply to many places in the world, as they are a reflection of how changing trends in technology, globalization and culture in general have affected this ancient and honourable activity of horse-racing.

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

15 – Billy Budd’s (Nov 22, 2025)
- After a longish layoff, it was back to Billy Budd’s. As noted in a previous entry, this place is quite conveniently located, being near my house and a (mostly) freeway drive for my brother.
- A few things got in the way of the usual weekly horseracing venture, primarily of the late autumn colds and minor flu variety. The observance of Remembrance Day also crowded the racetrack out of the schedule for the week containing November 11. So, by the time this occasion came around, we were ready to bet on some horses.
- It was a Friday and we got there a little bit after the lunch hour. As such, it was fairly busy and the crowd at the horseracing section was quite varied – various ages, some couples, some work groups taking a late lunch and so forth. The rest of the pub was also rather busy. As with our previous visit to this place, we took seats along a sort of long arc shaped counter, with undermount lighting to help with the handicapping.
- After purchasing a program for Woodbine from one of the printer machines, I sat down to study it. I was somewhat shocked to see that this program didn’t seem to have speed and pace ratings for each horse, but rather Beyer’s numbers. That was an unpleasant surprise, as my (so far successful) handicapping method had relied primarily on speed/pace numbers.
- I should note that speed numbers give a ranking of the horse’s performance, relative to a what an excellent time would be in a race of this nature (e.g. conditioned on distance, track, type of race, etc). But, basically it is a measure of the horse’s inherent potential for speed.
- The pace numbers are an estimate of the horse’s speed rating, if it had been calculated early in the race (the quarter mile pole or thereabouts, depending on the length of the race). That gives an indication of whether the horse is a wire-to-wire type or a closer type (late charge in the stretch).
- Beyer’s numbers are calculated for each horse; they are meant to be a summative measure (i.e. one number) for that horse’s overall potential to win. In practice, it is heavily weighted towards speed, though modified by some other factors. What those are exactly, I don’t know. The formula is kept secret for commercial and competitive reasons, by Mr. Byers and the Daily Racing Form, I believe.
- I suppose I should give a fairly detailed run-down of handicapping to put this into context. There are a lot of other things to consider when handicapping:
  - the date of the race,
  - the value of the race (the purse),
  - age or sex restrictions for the horses in the race (e.g. fillies and mares, 3 years old and upwards),
  - the track and track conditions for each of the races in the past performance charts for each horse in the current race (e.g. good vs sloppy at Woodbine or Santa Anita),
  - each horse’s positions in previous races (past performances),
  - the odds the horse went off at,
  - the post position it ran from,
  - its estimated time and position for each segment of the race,
  - its jockey and trainer,
  - the weight it carried,
  - the top three horses in the race,
  - and a comment about how the horse ran the race (the horse’s ‘trip’).
  - There is also ‘demographic’ data on each horse including its sex and age, its colouring, its birthplace, its parentage, each horse’s earnings over various time intervals (current year, previous year, lifetime) and its owner.
  - Then, of course, there are the non-horse related factors, especially the odds that the horse is being given as the start of the race approaches. Those odds are proportional to the amount of money that the crowd bets on each horse – the more money bet on the horse, the lower its odds will be. A horse that a handicapper thinks has a good chance of winning, but has relatively high odds, is a good bet (a so-called overlay). The same horse with very low odds is a bad bet (an underlay). Of course that assumes that the bettor’s estimation of probabilities are superior to those of the aggregate (the crowd).
  - Lastly, there is the possibility of shenanigans (i.e. cheating of some sort). Some of us ignore that (either that it doesn’t happen or that all of the different misbehaviours tend to cancel each other out). Others attempt to factor that into their betting. I suppose it all depends on your general worldview.
- So, as you can see, there is a lot to think about. Given this immense volume of information, a very high-level statistical analysis (e.g. regression or logistic regression) is required to thoroughly analyze the situation (or a dedicated machine-learning algorithm). I actually did that quite a few years earlier, as I am a statistician by profession. It was interesting, but gathering the data was a lot of work.
- In the absence of the speed/pace numbers, I decided to try using the Beyer’s numbers for my handicapping. In a previous iteration of my horse betting background, I found that Beyer’s numbers were quite good at picking winners but those horses were generally heavily bet down by the crowd, and thus had low odds. That meant that the strategy wasn’t viable, at least for me, in terms of making an overall profit. Others may have had different results.
- On the other hand, some careful selection of speed and pace seemed to work better, then and now. That also included watching the developing odds, to ensure that the payoff was worth the risk (in cards they used to say ‘is the game worth the candle?’).
- So, long story short, I made some adjustments and came out of the day with a profit anyway.
- Amusingly enough, the next day I looked at the program again and noticed that the speed and pace figures were still there, just shifted over several columns, with the Beyer’s numbers in the column that held the speed/pace numbers previously. At least that’s how it appeared to me. The program can be a bit vague on some of these points.
- As noted above, we arrived at Billy Bud’s in time for most of the Woodbine card. The first race we had a chance to handicap was the 3^rd race. I developed my new Beyer’s related formula on the fly and worked out my numbers. It took longer than the measure that I had been using in the previous weeks, as it required a bit more examination of the program, to get a feel for early speed vs closers.
- I have always preferred fast horses with early speed over closers. Just a personal thing. I guess the guy in the play/movie Glengary Glenn Ross wouldn’t have agreed with me. He’d be shouting ‘Always be closing!’ and I’d be shouting ‘Always go wire-to-wire!’. Neither the horses or the real estate salesmen would know what to make of us.
- After working out my numbers, I pointed out the two horses that I liked to my brother Craig. He shrugged ‘could be’. The two horses did come in, hurrah!
- But the horse I thought would be the early speed horse lagged and the one I thought would be the closer pretty much went wire-to-wire. So, I said to Craig, "It looks like I was both right and wrong". Fortunately I had boxed the bet (bet it both ways), so it didn’t actually matter. It wasn’t a bad price, though I thought it should have been more. But who doesn’t think that?
- When I went up to the machine to cash in my betting voucher, an older gent headed there too. I let him go ahead, thinking that he had happily won on that race too. But he just put the voucher in the machine, which spit it back out, then he tossed it in the garbage.
- I figured that he was a "Water Bill" type, who just double-checked tickets in case someone threw away a winner by accident. But later I saw him put quite a few bets through the machine, so I guess he was legit.
- For the 4^th race, my numbers came up with horse #2 to win, but it came in third. It had a nice late charge, but it came a little too late. I had also expected that horse to run at the front, but it turned out to be a closer. I was beginning to think that my impromptu early speed measure just wasn’t up to the job.
- On the plus side, my brother picked up a nice score on a Superfecta, which paid about $40 on a $0.20 bet. That’s a four-horse bet, so he probably had to make multiple bets to win it. I think that bet was on the bucket-pullers at at different track.
- The late lunch crowd was thinning out by now. A guy a few seats down kept repeating "I’m on the south side now" into his cell phone. Maybe a worker who was taking a long lunch hour and was getting the gears for it. Or maybe a shipper was checking up on a truck driver.
- On the 5th race, my numbers came up with horses that didn’t even do as well as fourth place. So, another loss.
- While working out the numbers, the waitress came by to see if we wanted a drink (still too early for me). A wine glass fell off her tray and shattered on the floor. One piece hit Craig’s leg, but there was no damage. She apologized, noting that she didn’t like carrying wine glasses, especially when they are empty. "Too tippy" I said, and she nodded in agreement. I said people ought to drink wine out of whisky tumblers. She nodded in agreement.
- An interesting feature of that wine glass accident is that it was the second time a waitress dropped a glass which shattered on the floor near us in fifteen trips to off-track betting joints. Does that mean that we can expect this event to occur again within seven more trips? Nope, probably that is just an example of the statistical fallacy of extrapolating from a small sample (I did mention that I was a statistician).
- On the 6^th race, my numbers came up with horse #1 and #8 for an exactor box. The 8 did come in place but the 1 finished out of the money. So, another loss.
- The 7^th race had a very big field, some thirteen horses. It took a long time to work out my numbers, so long in fact that I didn’t quite finish in time to bet the race. Afterwards, I finished working out the numbers out of curiosity and it came out with horse #13 as the clear winner. It went off at about 8 to 1 odds and it did indeed win, paying $15.70 on a win ticket! Ain’t that always the way.
- I should note that the horse had really good numbers overall, but its last couple of races had not been that great. I have noted that horseracing bettors tend to have a significant recency bias, so betting against that can pay off handsomely.
- By the 8^th race I had decided to enjoy a Granville Island beer. The waitress said it was a Christmas thing and had a sort of caramel taste. She was correct. It was alright, but more than one or two would get a bit cloying, I think. The beer meant a trip to the men’s room, in which there was one of those condom machines attached to the wall. I thought, "wow, I haven’t seen one of those in a long time." Give some guys a few beers and they get mighty optimistic.
- I confined my optimism to the horse races and worked out my numbers for the 8^th race. Horses #8 and #5 both seemed like good bets, so I put a place ticket on the #5. It looked good, leading in the stretch, and then a three-horse duel ensued. I thought for sure that I had it, since I bet it to place, but by some evil chance it came in third, presumably by an eyelash. It paid well to show, so it would have been a nice payoff to place. So it goes.
- Craig won some bet or another, so he went to cash a voucher. But the machine wouldn’t take the ticket, as the paper hadn’t come off smoothly from the roll. He informed the waitress of the problem, who got the appropriate staff member to attend to the matter, who happened to be the bartender. She seemed a bit put off by it all. On top of the broken wine glass grazing his leg, it wasn’t Craig’s lucky day with bar staff.
- I worked out my numbers for the 9^th race, but the horse that the numbers liked (#1) went off at less than even money, which never seems like a good idea. Thus, I went by the old adage that discretion can be the better part of valour, and skipped the race. The #1 horse did indeed win, but only paid 3.80 for a $2 ticket. Prices like that won’t buy the baby new shoes.
- For the 10^th race, my numbers were close on the #6 and #1 horses. But the #1 horse was going off at 4 to 1, while the 6 was barely better than even money, so I bet on the #1 horse, though just a place ticket. It did place, and paid nearly 8 bucks on a $2 ticket (not that I only bet two bucks, that is just the way prices are usually expressed at the track), so that was good. It meant that I would earn a clear profit on the day, with 2 wins out of 6 races, at pretty decent prices. There were also a couple of near-run things (as the Duke of Wellington was said to have said about the Battle of Waterloo) in terms of just-missed photo finishes.
- It turned out that the machine also didn’t rip my ticket properly, so I had to get the bartender to ‘do something’. I noted that it probably just needed to have the bottom bit of the ticket to be cut off cleanly, for the machine to read it properly. She concurred, saying "that’s what I did, cut it with a pair of scissors." I said "Normally I carry a pair of scissors with me, but I seem to have forgotten them today." Judging by her expression, I fear that this riposte did not align with her sense of humour.
- There was an 11^th race, but I skipped it, as I was too lazy to do much more mental math, and thus didn’t finish working out my numbers. Looking at it later, it the numbers did predict the top three horses, but they all paid short money, so it didn’t really matter.
- After that, it was a matter of waiting for Craig to finish up his betting on Woodbine/Mohawk bucket-pullers, which took another hour or so. That also allowed time for the rush-hour traffic to die down. Craig told lots of old racetrack stories – I must record some of those for posterity, as they have a pretty good Damon Runyon feel to them.
- As it was now around supper-time, more people drifted in to eat and play a few horses. A couple of young sports came in and sat near us, and asked a few questions about horseracing. We gave them a few pointers, based on long experience, and shortly thereafter we took our leave.
- It was dark by now, but the unseasonably warm and not-snowy weather made it a pretty easy drive. And that was that for horseracing trip # 15.

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A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here is an account of backpacking in Northern Ontario, that a friend and I did some years back. It also has a bit of canoing and some day hikes with my wife.

A Summer Working on the Railroad

What follows is an account of a few weeks one long-ago summer, when I was 19 and was working for the Canadian National Railway (CNR) on a railroad construction gang, in the wilds of north-central British Columbia, Canada.

The journal is in the form of a letter, that was never sent. Decades later, I think it has an interesting historical resonance. At times I come off like a callow youth – I plead guilty as charged. I swore a lot more in those days than I do now, but in places the writing is surprisingly good, at least in my humble opinion. And the story has a compelling narrative arc.

There were a lot of interesting and dramatic events that occurred – a number of industrial accidents being the most serious. There were also some colorful characters on the crew, which resulted in some dramatic and at times amusing conflicts and altercations. I perhaps flatter myself by including myself in that number. Or perhaps I condemn myself – I’m not sure.

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

The memoir/journal is about 9,000 words, a length that can usually be read in an hour or so. It is priced at 99 cents U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and is free on Kindle Unlimited. Periodically, it will be offered as a free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Tuesday, 3 February 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number Fourteen Billy Budd’s (Oct 25, 2025)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number Fourteen

Billy Budd’s (Oct 25, 2025)

Introduction

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

14 – Century Mile 7 (October 25, 2025)
- On a pleasant late October day, it was back to Century Mile, the actual racetrack near the International Airport.
- Early in the afternoon, things weren’t too busy, but by early evening we had a spot of trouble finding our car in the parking lot, as it was nearly full by then.
- Traffic on the freeway had been horrible that day, so my brother was late picking me up. But that gave me extra time to hit some golf balls into the backyard net, always a good idea.
- Unfortunately, it also meant that I was rushed when he arrived and forgot my reading glasses. Thus, reading the program was an adventure in squinting and guessing, as the numbers are rather small. A quick perusal a few days later showed me that the results were not very different, with or without the glasses. I didn’t make that many mistakes and the mistakes on the high side were generally offset by mistakes on the low side, so the overall average numbers were pretty close. This supports Enrico Fermi’s principle of approximation.
- For this day, I decided to key in on Santa Anita once more. It was starting at about the time we arrived, so that made it possible to analyze the entire card, not being distracted by other tracks. I don’t like to spread my handicapping too thin, especially when I don’t have my reading glasses and my calculations are all of the eyeball/mental arithmetic variety.
- Almost immediately upon sitting down, there was some entertainment:
  - One older gentleman was being quite enthusiastic, as were several others, yelling "Come on 5! Come on 5! Beat on! Beat on!"
  - This turned out to be one of the later races at Gulfstream Park. He must have had all three of first horses in a bet called a Superfecta, where the bettor picks the first four horses in the order they finished. If a few long shots come in, it can pay off very handsomely.
  - It was close, very close, a photo finish. Did he get it, we wondered? He made the sign of the cross, silently. It could pay off, people were saying.
  - But sadly, it didn’t. The horse he needed (the 5) did come in second, but his other horse (the 8) was beat out in the stretch by the 11 horse. There was an inquiry but it didn’t affect the outcome. He needed 10/5/12/8 but they finished 10/5/12/11. Tough break.
  - It turned out that it paid $1100 for a 20 cent bet. Perhaps his bet would have paid somewhat less, perhaps somewhat more. But either way, it would have been a nice piece of change.
  - One of his mates kidded him. "You did not pray, my son. Had you only prayed." I don’t know if he saw this fellow make the sign of the cross or not. Had they not been friends, that would have been reasonable ‘not guilty’ grounds for murder. But, the fellow who lost took it in good spirits. That’s just how the game should be played.
- It was that kind of day. People were bantering with each other.
- At one point, I said to my brother Craig "I’d order a beer, but it is a bit too early for that." That was during the fourth race. The fellow sitting next to us said "It’s never too early for beer."
- Maybe that’s true, but it is a long drive back home on a busy highway from the racetrack at the airport. So, discretion is called for. Besides, immoderate consumption can lead to impulsive betting, which is fun, but it rarely pays off.
- Later, when I did order a beer, I asked that fellow if I could take one of the napkins at his table, as my beer was a bit ‘spilly’ (the glass had been overfilled). He replied with a grin; "You spilled beer? That’s alcohol abuse." But, he gave me the napkin.
- As for the races at Santa Anita, it was a funny day. Here is a blow-by-blow account:
  - I worked out my numbers, squinting at the form as best I could, then transferring the numbers to a small notebook I had. Then I did some mental addition and averaging on the numbers in the notebook, to handicap the race. This was to be the process for the rest of the day (note to self: remember your reading glasses).
  - We were a little late for the first race, so I gave it a pass.
  - The second race only had four horses in it (what’s with that?). I bet an exactor, 4 and 3. The 4 horse was the overwhelming favorite. His numbers were very good, so there was no surprise there. It won the race, but the 3 fell way back, with the 1 horse winning. So, I picked the winner but not the place horse.
  - The third race was a maiden race (no horses had yet won a race). It also was a short field, with only five horses, only two of which had run a race in its lifetime. The only numbers for the rest of the field were times for workouts, for which I don’t feel enough confidence to use them. So, I passed on the race.
  - The fourth race had six horses in it, so that was more bettable. That said, one of the horses was scratched (owner decided to pull it from the race), so maybe not so bettable. At any rate, I worked out my numbers and identified a decent play, a favourite with good speed numbers and a longer-odds horse with good numbers and good odds. I boxed those two horses (so that the bet paid off regardless of the order of finish). Those two came in, with a fairly decent six-to-one payoff. So, a nice little win.
  - The fifth race was another five horse effort. The betting on the favourite started off at ridiculous odds of 1-9. Eventually it went off at about 1-2, still very low odds. That said, it did have far superior numbers to the rest of them. So, I bet it and a long-shot, though a different long-shot came in. So, no money, but a moral victory, I suppose.
  - The sixth race had a seven horse field, so it took some time to work out my numbers. In fact, it took so long that I got shut out (too late to make a bet, the betting was closed). That turned out to be fortuitous, as it came in 1-5 and I intended to bet 2-5. So, just as no news is good news, no bet was a good bet.
  - The seventh race had six horses, another short field. The 6 horse had very good numbers, the equal of any of the others, and it was going off at a very good price. I decided to just go win on it, then backed off for place. With its odds, I thought that place would still be a good price. Boy, was I wrong. It paid $10.60 to win but only $2.60 to place. To boot, it paid the same $2.60 to show. So the odds were definitely messed up, not at all like economic theory would predict. The second and third place horses were the favorites, so they also paid next to nothing ($2.10 to place, as it was a dead heat for second). It was nice to win the bet, but it paid a lot less than I expected. A funny race, indeed.
  - The eighth race had a big field, eleven horses. In fact, with so many horses to evaluate, I only got up to horse 7 before the race was ready to start. My handicapping had also been delayed via ordering a beer, paying for it and chatting with the waitress. Then, horror of horrors, the beer came in a Bud Light glass, though I do think it was the same as an earlier beer that I ordered, some sort of local craft beer. So, it was another passed race via shutout. The race came in 5-2, and paid pretty well. Both of those horses had good numbers. I probably would have bet the 5, but I can’t say for sure that I would have bet the 2, if I had worked out the other horses in the race.
  - The ninth race was actually a very big field, fourteen horses. It took some doing to work out all these numbers, but I managed it, by studiously avoiding distractions. Yet, even with all these horses, the favourite 11 horse was bet down to even money, with most of the other horses at 10 to 1 or higher odds. I was rather vocal in my surprise at that, as its numbers were good, but not much better than the rest. But I guess the crowd knew what it was doing, as it won the race. Given the inherent weirdness of the odds, I decided to pass on the race.
  - The tenth race was a shorter field, at eight horses. The 8 horse won, though it only had one race under its belt and not great speed numbers. However, it had won that earlier race, so the crowd rather liked it. I didn’t, which was too bad for me, as my pick came in fourth, though it had by far the best numbers in the race. So it goes.
- Craig put down some wagers on the bucket-pullers at Woodbine before we left. There were some big races there, Breeders Stakes. It is rather surprising how big the stakes can be for these harness races, which I avoid like the plague, with the exception of throwing a little money into the bucket pool with Craig, just for laughs. But, each to his own.
- I left under the impression that I had a small net loss for the day, but when I checked the vouchers the next day, I realized that I had actually made a small profit. I probably got that impression due to working out so many numbers, yet passing on a number of races. That is the smart thing to do, but not easy advice for the average horse player to follow.

======================================================================

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here is an account of backpacking in Northern Ontario, that a friend and I did some years back. It also has a bit of canoing and some day hikes with my wife.

A Summer Working on the Railroad

What follows is anaccount of a few weeks one long-ago summer, when I was 19 and was working for the Canadian National Railway (CNR) on a railroad construction gang, in the wilds of north-central British Columbia, Canada.

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z