Friday, 27 March 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number 20 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 16, 2026)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

Twenty

20 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 16, 2026)

Introduction

This blog and some following blogs are sections from an informal diary of “visits to the race-track” at a particular time and place, by a person who has followed the races with varying levels of participation over a long period. These relate primarily to some visits to the track and/or off-track betting venues in the 2025 period and onward. They contain observations about the activity, both specific and general. Although these remarks are personal, they also reflect general cultural and historical trends, as they have impacted horse-racing, wagering and culture in general.

The setting is Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (population of about one million plus). However, I imagine that the observations would apply to many places in the world, as they are a reflection of how changing trends in technology, globalization and culture in general have affected this ancient and honourable activity of horse-racing.

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

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20 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 16, 2026)
- We ended up skipping a week, as my brother Craig had some other appointments to deal with and my son Scott was back to work, after taking some time off during the Christmas season. But it was back to Budd’s for a Friday session of thoroughbreds at Santa Anita and bucket-pullers at Woodbine/Mohawk.
- They must have a pretty good lunch special on Fridays at this place, as there has usually been a fairly decent ‘crowd’ at the horse-betting part of the tavern on these days. Today there were about a dozen people watching, mostly older gentlemen.
- We got there in time for the races at Santa Anita. I like this track, or perhaps it likes me. Looking back on these diaries, I perceive that I have made money or broke even on five occasions at Santa Anita and I don’t see any money-losing days there. However, there are a few outings where I didn’t bother recording the track that I was betting at.
- We were shut-out for the first race. That was just as well, as the winner was not the highest rated horse in the race, by my figures (though close).
- In the second race, my preferred horse wasn’t even close. The win and place horses were both short-priced, anyway. The winner paid 2.80/2.10/2.10, so not a bet that could make you money in the long run.
- The third race was similar, with my horse not in the money. The winner did pay a good price, however, and had the highest speed ratings by my system, though lower Beyers numbers. The same was true of the horse that came in second. So, I should have had an exactor there, had I stuck with my system. Well, that’s easy to say once the race has been run and you pour through your handicapping –"aha!, I actually had that one (though I didn’t bet on it)".
- One of the fellows playing the horses was a true gentleman, as Craig had forgotten to retrieve one of his vouchers from the machine after the third race, due to having to struggle with that machine’s poor paper-cutting. The fellow asked us if we had left a voucher in the machine, as he was the next person to use that machine, and had found the voucher. Craig said he did forget the voucher (he had already mentioned it to me) and the fellow gave it to him. It wasn’t a lot of money (a bit over ten bucks), but it showed a lot of class on this fellow’s part. I hope the racing gods rewarded him appropriately later, with a nice win. But they are fickle gods, so I wouldn’t count on it.
- I was shut-out again, for the fourth race. Once more, I was lucky, as my preferred horse was nowhere near the money. These were some of the best bets of the day!
- The fifth race was on the turf (grass). Andy Beyers says that turf races don’t handicap well, as far as speed handicapping goes. This race supported his observation, as my pick ended up out of the money.
- About this time, a group of older guys near us had a very long discussion about the merits of laser eye surgery. One of the waitresses joined in the debate. They were all very knowledgeable, having had the surgery themselves, or having had someone close to them have it. The consensus was that it worked quite well, but the prices were high and unpredictable. The things you learn at the races.
- By that point, things were getting kind of grim. Half a card was over, and still no wins. But the 6^th race had a very obvious choice, with speed numbers far exceeding the rest of the field. For some reason that I couldn’t fathom, the crowd was laying off this horse, which meant it had amazingly good odds at post-time. That threw me a bit, so I jammed out and bet it to place. It did indeed win, paying a very healthy $21.20 to win and $7.00 to place. That was enough to cover my losses for the day, though it would have been nice to cash a 11 to 1 win ticket.
- With that winning bet, I allowed myself a beer, Rickards Red. Craig had one as well. We chatted a bit more than we did during the other races. I pointed out that the Oilers goalie situation had improved remarkably since they traded their goalie to the Penguins, getting the Penguins goalie in return. Since then, all of the goalies in question had been playing well, but the Oilers were doing better by the trade.
- Speaking of hockey and horses, it turns out that Oilers star Ryan Nugent-Hopkins comes from a horse-racing family and one of his horses won a major stakes race in Ontario (he’s from B.C.). Here’s Nuge with his horse.
- At any rate, this hockey digression (and the beer) was so interesting that when we eventually looked up at the screen, we saw that the 7^th race was already being run. Once more, I was saved by the shut-out, as the winner was a huge ($40) longshot that was very difficult to predict. I had worked my numbers for the race, and the winner had no obvious virtues.
- The 8^th and final race of the card had ten horses running, and they all had plenty of past performances in the form. So, by the time I worked out my numbers, the race was ready to go and I was once more shut-out. But again, that turned out to be a blessing, as the horses with the best number didn’t do anything. That said, the horses that ended up in the money did not have great odds, so one wonders if some sort of betting coup might have been going on. The last race of the card seems to be that way, in my experience.
- By this time, it was getting around 6:00 p.m.. Things were picking up, the bar was getting noisy and the hockey game was on. And it was time to play the bucket-pullers at Woodbine/Mohawk!
- I started working out some speed figures for the harness races, beginning with Race #5. Craig had already beeen playing some of these races, so I kicked in a few bucks to get some of the action. But they were what Byers calls token bets (or Mickey-Mouse bets), so it was just for a few laughs to pass the time.
- We had a series of rolling Pick-3 bets going. They would get close, we would be alive to the final leg, then be brought down to Earth.
- But the last Pick-3, races 10, 11, and 12 came through for us, though at an admittedly small price. We also put a bit on the winner, as a straight win bet. Those were enough to cover my bets, with a bit to spare, so once more, I left the track with more money than I came with (aside from three beers).
- Craig has observed that the Woodbine/Mohawk harness track has a bias to the number 6 starting position. And, as it turned out our winning Pick-3 was 6-All-6, so it turned out to support his theory.
- I wondered why this could be. Craig said it was because the 6-horse went quickly for the lead, to prevent going wide into the first turn and wasting energy. Well, that is true, but for me the question is why does the 6 horse win the starting race to the rail, when the inside horses should have the advantage?
- Perhaps there is a softer track along the rail at the start of the race, so the number six horse can get there, while the inner horses are held back by the softer ground. Then, once the number 6 horse is in the lead, it simply does not relinquish it. Perhaps the inside track is better in the back-stretch? It’s a mystery, assuming there is a big bias towards the 6^th position.
- As for other stuff during the bucket-pullers segment of the evening:
  - One younger guy sitting below us talked about being on blood thinners, beta blockers and cholesterol drugs since he was 35. I think it was a couple having dinner and playing a few races. It sounds like they had a dog that was suffering and might have to be put down. The fellow noted that his family had always been around horses, so he was used to this. It sounded like the woman’s family was having a hard time with the situation and he was trying to help out.
  - There was a lacrosse game being shown on one of the TV screens, as the horse-racing began to draw to a close in North America. It was a surprisingly large crowd at the game being broadcast. Maybe an Ivy league game in the northeastern states?
  - Huge snowflakes were falling at Woodbine. Perhaps that helped out our 6-All-6 bet.
  - Craig began reminiscing about the old days of racing at a real track downtown, and all the colourful cronies that were there.
  - The Australian ‘devil horses’ showed up on the screen again. That was a good signal that it was time to go.
    
    So it was a good day. Between Santa Anita and Woodbine/Mohawk I did a little better than break even for this week’s horse-racing outing.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

Every gambler is bound to run out of luck eventually, right?

By far my favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.

It would have been helpful to have more character development in this short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well done.

I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of empathy for folks in his position.

A Dark Horse – A Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season and beyond.

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A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GBG8JE0
U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01GBG8JE0
India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01GBG8JE0

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01GBG8JE0

The book is only 99 cents U.S. (equivalent price in other currencies). It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

The Kettle Valley Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic biking and hiking trails in Canada. It covers a good stretch of the south-central interior of British Columbia, about 600 kilometers of scenic countryside. British Columbia is one of the most beautiful areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country, ideal for those who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in the great outdoors.

The trail passes through a great variety of geographical and geological regions, from mountains to valleys, along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry near-desert condition grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned by a combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes through wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite low, in populated valleys, alongside spectacular water features such as beautiful Lake Okanagan, an area that is home to hundreds of vineyards, as well as other civilized comforts.

The trail is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits and adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness. The views are spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people are friendly. What more could one ask for?

What follows is a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail in the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours reading), and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are also sections containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora and fauna, and associated information.

After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it will be an experience you will never forget.

Tuesday, 17 March 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number 19 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 2, 2026)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

Nineteen

19 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 2, 2026)

Introduction

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

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19 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 2, 2026)
- What with all the usual business of the Christmas season, as well as some big snowfalls, we took a long break and returned on the Friday after New Year’s Day to Budd’. On this day my brother Craig and I were joined by my son Scott, who has occasionally joined us, when he had a spare day to while away some time with dad and uncle.
- It was a surprisingly sparse crowd for a Friday, but Craig informed me that New Year’s Day is a major day at the tracks, so most horseplayers were probably exhausted by that (out of both money and energy, I suppose). So, it was just us and a few stalwarts.
- We arrived at the usual time, a little before 2:00 p.m., at about the time that Santa Anita was beginning. I suppose this would have been more appropriate for the pre-Christmas visit, then it would be a Santa Anita Claus visit.
- I have had pretty good results with the Santa Anita races, so this suited me just fine.
- Scott and I bet the Santa Anita card, while Craig bet some of that, as well as bucket-pullers, once they got going, later in the day. Since Scott and I were betting Santa Anita, we split the duties for computing our numbers, he would do one race, I would do the next. Once we got down to the betting, we could each make our own choices.
- We were too late to bet the first race, though the system’s preferred horse did come in, at $18.40 to win.
- For the second race, our preferred horse came in to win at 6.80 for a $2 bet. I got that, as did Scott, though I don’t know if he had a win ticket or an exactor. In either case, he was quite happy about it.
- For the third race, the system’s top two horses were short odds, so I bet a different horse that also had good speed and pace, as well as nice odds. That came in at $11 on a $2 bet to win.
- I was feeling pretty good about things, but then hit the skids on the 4^th, 5^th and 6^th races. One of those came close on a show bet, coming in fourth in the 4^th race. It was a 30-1 odds horse on the morning line, so it was worth a shot. For the 5^th and 6^th, my decent-odds with a chance both came in second last.
- On the 7^th race, the system picked a fast horse with good odds. I decided to go place on that one, and it came in at $5 for a place ticket.
- On the 8^th race and final race (it was a short card at Santa Anita), my fast horse with good odds came in second last. So, I was either picking paying horses or second-last horses today (one fourth as well). So it goes.
- Scott didn’t win any more races, but missed a couple of nice plays, which came in second by a nose (he had win tickets). I guess I was lucky with the place betting, though in the long run Scott’s method works best, in my experience (i.e. sticking to win tickets). However, I felt a bit bad for him – playing the horses with your offspring (even when they are adults) is a bit tough, as you always want to see them get a good result, whether that be in school, work or sports (such as the race-track).
- With Santa Anita done, the serious handicapping was over for me and Scott.
- That also meant I could have a beer or two. I don’t usually drink more than that, but that is especially so at the track. Alcohol and winning bets at the horseraces don’t really go together very well (yes, you can get lucky sometimes). Plus, working out numbers, whether via mental math estimation or the use of a calculator does tax the old noggin, so it is best to keep it in good working order during the handicapping process.
- Scott and Craig also ordered a beer. Scott was getting peckish, so he ordered some sort of noodle dish, which he said was fine.
- The waitress came by to take our order. She was a smiley one, with a nice sense of humour:
  - Her: Have the horsies been good to you fellows today?
  - Me: They have been to me.
  - Her: Really? That’s good. Nobody ever says that to me when I ask.
  - (that exchange probably upped her tip by at least 5 percentage points).
- The harness races were now starting at Woodbine, which Craig enjoys. So, Scott and I kicked in a few bucks to get some action on them, while we waited for Craig to finish betting his bucket-pullers.
- To that end, I bought a program for Woodbine, to attempt some modified speed handicapping.
- We weren’t too successful, though we did have one amusing win. In that case, we won a pick-3 (where you pick the winners of 3 races in a row in a single bet). But nothing but favorites came in during those three races, so it paid a whopping $26.90 on a $2 bet.
- But these exotic bets can add up, if you start making multiple bets. For example, this ‘winner’ was a bet on All/4/2,7; that meant any horse in the first leg, the 4 horse in the second leg and the 2 or 7 horse in the third leg.
- The winners were 6-4-2, which was one of our choices. But they were all fairly short-priced, at $4.10, $7.30, $3.80 to win respectively. Since these were low-odds horses, the combo bet only paid $26.90.
- But wait! There’s more! We had joke money on the bet, only $0.20 per bet. So, that ticket paid a $2.69.
- Fortunately I had suggested to Craig that we double up the bet, so we actually had two tickets, which brought the total to $5.38. Split three ways, that was $1.79 each. Hurrah!
- But it was a moral victory and that counts for something. (I will try not to gloat.)
- We then parlayed that big win to the next possible pick-3. We bet 6,9/4,6/6.
- In the first leg, the 6 came in and paid $2.70 to win. So it was an enormous favorite. It was named "Get Wings" and it did exactly that, closing from second by a head at the 3/4 point to win by 3 lengths. It was impressive. What was also impressive is that it had a price drop from 5-2 odds to 1-5 in the last few minutes of betting. Conversely, the horse who came in second went from 8-1 in the morning line to closing odds of 99-1. Things that make you go hmmmm. Obviously, the inside money ‘knew something’.
- In the second leg, our two picks came in second and third, so that was that. They both paid joke money, so I guess it didn’t really matter, it would have been another joke payday.
- So we packed it in. The Australian races were starting (it was already tomorrow there). It always looks so sunny and cheerful there. A spacious racetrack too.
- They put some weird-looking red headgear on the horses there and in the U.K.. That is rather jarring – a vaguely Satanic look. Apparently it calms the horses down (the ears block sound).
- On the way out we caught a bit of the International Junior Hockey tournament, where Canada had beaten Latvia 2 to 1. Another screen had New York Rangers beating the Florida Panthers (the game ended 5-1 for NYR).
- Speaking of hockey I mentioned to Craig that I watched a replay of the famed 1975 New Years Eve game between the Montreal Canadiens and the Russian Red Army. It was a very good game, though rather different from games nowadays. I mentioned that one of the players, Larry Robinson, looked a lot like one of our old racetrack cronies.
  - At the mention of this fellow, Craig said "yeah, he’d slit your throat to win a bet, but then he’d stitch you up too." Racing talk in those days was very colourful.
- If you are a Canadian, the former result (Canada over Latvia) was good. If you are an Oilers fan, the latter result was good (NYR over Florida). The 1975 result was good too, but it was kind of late to make a bet on it.
- Plus, I won 3 out of 7 thoroughbred bets (picked up some stable-coin), so all was right with the world.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

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And here is an account of a summer job on the railroad, during my undergraduate years.

One Summer Working on the Railroad

What follows is anaccount of a few weeks one long-ago summer, when I was 19 and was working for the Canadian National Railway (CNR) on a railroad construction gang, in the wilds of north-central British Columbia, Canada.

The journal is in the form of a letter, that was never sent. Decades later, I think it has an interesting historical resonance. At times I come off like a callow youth – I plead guilty as charged. I swore a lot more in those days than I do now, but in places the writing is surprisingly good, at least in my humble opinion. And the story has a compelling narrative arc.

There were a lot of interesting and dramatic events that occurred – a number of industrial accidents being the most serious. There were also some colorful characters on the crew, which resulted in some dramatic and at times amusing conflicts and altercations. I perhaps flatter myself by including myself in that number. Or perhaps I condemn myself – I’m not sure.

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

The memoir/journal is about 9,000 words, a length that can usually be read in an hour or so. It is priced at 99 cents U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and is free on Kindle Unlimited. Periodically, it will be offered as a free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Friday, 13 March 2026

Pi Day 2026 –PI and the Horse Races

Since I have been playing around with picking the ponies lately, I thought I might try to look into any PI Day angles for that. So, I settled on examining how the circular nature of a racetrack affects the horse-races, in this case the harness races. However, the general sense of this would apply to any sort of race run around a track, including thoroughbred horses.

The above is a plan view of a simplified racetrack, comprised of two circles connected by straight lines, such that the lines intesect the circles, tangent to the radii (more or less, given the limitations of a spreadsheet construction).

The blue inner radii and connecting line represents the path of a horse that runs inside, along the rail. It is meant to be one-mile, the distance of many harness-racetracks. The green outer radii and connecting line represents the path of a horse that runs on an path to the outside of the first horse. The distance between the two paths is exagerated.

As the diagram shows, it is obvious that the outer horse will run a greater distance than the inner horse, which will be related to the difference in the radii of the inner and outer circles.

Since the simplified track is composed partly of circles, PI is bound to come into the calculations. That is shown in the cut/paste of some calculations from a spreadsheet. The main result is that the outer horse runs about 10 yards farther than the inner horse, if is it parked outside the inner horse on the turns. The phrase "parked out" just means that it is running outside of the innermost horse and remains "parked" in the position for the bulk of the race. That is the case when it is parked out by one horse. If it is on the outside of two horses, the extra distance will be nearly 21 yards, and so on. Note that this extra distance is on the turns; on the straight sections, both horses run the same distance.

The next set of calculations related to times and velocities. If the inside horse finishes the one-mile course in 2 minutes (a typical standard for harness horses), that implies a velocity of 14.67 yards per second (that’s 30 miles per hour). Were the horse that is parked one wide to go that same velocity, it would take 120.71 seconds, so a difference of about 7 seconds.

A typical length for a horse and sulky is about 12 to 14 feet, or about 4 yards. At about 15 yards per second, a horse would cover nearly 4 seconds in the time it takes to travel that distance. So, that would imply that the outside horse would finish the race about 2.6 lengths behind the winner.

In order to finish in a dead heat, the outer horse would have to step up its average velocity from 14.67 yards per second to 14.75 yard per second. That doesn’t sound like much, but over 2 minutes it adds up. For a horse that was parked outside for more widths than this, the numbers would scale appropriately.

So, where position the horse and when to challenge for the lead is significantly impacted by the extra distance to travel, due to the differing radii in the corners for inner and outer horses. And since corners are partial circles, PI comes into play.

This is one of the main factors that a driver must consider. Of course there are many other nuances. Some horses just naturally want to run in the lead, while others prefer to close at the end of the race. There can be advantages to running second, just behind the leader, in a similar way that this occurs in bicycle races ("drafting"). This can save a lot of energy, for that final sprint to the finishing line. But there is also a chance of being "boxed in" (stuck in traffic), and being prevented from making that move.

So, there is a lot of math in this, including PI, so I will go to the harness races on March 14 and have some PI.

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So, now that you have dutifully read some Pi Day math, you should read a science fiction book, or even better, a whole series. Book 1 of the Witches’ Stones series even includes a reference to pi.:

The Witches’ Stones

Or, you might prefer, the trilogy of the Witches’ Stones (they’re psychic aliens, not actual witches), which follows the interactions of a future Earth confederation, an opposing galactic power, and the Witches of Kordea. It features Sarah Mackenzie, another feisty young Earth woman).

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008PNIRP4

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B008PNIRP4

The Magnetic Anomaly: A Science Fiction Story

“A geophysical crew went into the Canadian north. There were some regrettable accidents among a few ex-military who had become geophysical contractors after their service in the forces. A young man and young woman went temporarily mad from the stress of seeing that. They imagined things, terrible things. But both are known to have vivid imaginations; we have childhood records to verify that. It was all very sad. That’s the official story.”

A short story of about 6000 works.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0176H22B4

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0176H22B4

The Zoo Hypothesis or The News of the World: A Science Fiction Story

In the field known as Astrobiology, there is a research program called SETI, The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. At the heart of SETI, there is a mystery known as The Great Silence, or The Fermi Paradox, named after the famous physicist Enrico Fermi. Essentially, he asked “If they exist, where are they?”.

Some quite cogent arguments maintain that if there was extraterrestrial intelligence, they should have visited the Earth by now. This story, a bit tongue in cheek, gives a fictional account of one explanation for The Great Silence, known as The Zoo Hypothesis. Are we a protected species, in a Cosmic Zoo? If so, how did this come about? Read on, for one possible solution to The Fermi Paradox.

The short story is about 6300 words, or about half an hour at typical reading speeds.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B076RR1PGD

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B076RR1PGD

Thursday, 12 March 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number Eighteen Billy Budd’s (Dec 22, 2025)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

Eighteen

Billy Budd’s (Dec 22, 2025)

Introduction

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

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18 – Billy Budd’s (Dec 22, 2025)
- Due to the exigencies of weekend-before-Christmas preparations (shopping, tree decorating, visiting, wrapping presents, etc.), we had to reschedule our horse-racing venture at Billy Budd’s to a Monday, rather than within the more usual Thursday to Saturday window.
- This has its issues, relating to the days of the week on which the various tracks run. The higher quality tracks (i.e. those with higher purses) tend to run later in the week, from Thursday to Sunday. Using racetrack terminology, Monday to Wednesday are ‘dark days’ for these tracks. That leaves Monday to Wednesday for the less prestigious venues.
- In addition, the early week has a higher percentage of tracks that feature harness races than thorougbreds. It seems obvious to me that the majority of horse players tend to prefer the thoroughbreds over the harness races (sometimes called bucket-pullers), so the pickings for a thoroughbred fan are rather slim on a Monday.
- Given these factors, it was a rather sparse crowd at Budd’s when we arrived, at about 1:30 or so. Not too surprising; Monday is a working day for most people.
- The horseracing section of the bar only had a few people in attendance, including a couple of older gents enjoying a mid-afternoon breakfast (they were not together). Craig and I are at that in-between age; just past working-age but still keen on getting out in the world for a bit of sport. I guess these guys were the same.
- The waitress was a pleasant young lady, who used the expression ‘my love’ a lot, something like you might hear in England. That, and a pleasing appearance, probably resulted in some extra tips.
- I chose Delta Downs and Turf Paradise to follow. Craig followed them as well, but also threw some money at bucket-pullers.
- Delta Downs is a course in Louisiana and Turf Paradise is a course in Arizona. The Delta Downs card was well into it, by the time we arrived.
- We were set up by the 7^th race, but I had no time to bet it after working out my numbers. That was just as well, as the horse I liked didn’t win. Instead, the third fastest horse won, with the first fastest second and the second fastest third. The winner was a huge longshot, paying out $82 on a $2 bet.
- The 8^th race was a pretty classy affair, the 18^th running of the Boyd Rewards, with a $100,000 purse. The horse my system chose finished dead last, with a favorite taking the big purse.
- The 9^th race was a cheap $10,000 maiden claming race. My system’s pick actually won at $14 on a $2 bet, but I foolishly bet the favorite, being seduced by the crowd. That horse came in third. The thing about a winning system is that you can’t chicken out, being scared off by the high odds. Those are the races where you make your decent profits. That’s an easy policy to state, but a hard one to follow.
- That was the last race of the day for Delta Downs. Usually there are at least ten races, but perhaps the nearness of Christmas was forcing the tracks to scale back a bit.
- It was mid-afternoon by then. A couple of loquacious drunks were being pretty loud at the bar, but in a friendly sort of way, so that was fine. They added to the ambience, I guess.
- We segued into the races at Turf Paradise, begining with the 5^th race. That was a cheapie $4500 maiden claiming race, with an $8500 purse. It was a short race at 4.5 furlongs (just over half a mile). Many of the horses had no racing history (just workouts), with other having very unspectacular records. For my purposes, that means unbettable (I don’t know how seriously to take workouts), so I passed. A longshot with one in-the-money race in ten races came in; that would have been hard to pick.
- A newcomer to the track might wonder why I called the 5^th a $4500 claiming race, then said it had an $8500 purse. The first number is the claiming number. That means that a horse that is entered into that race can be claimed for that price by some other person. The second number is the purse, the money earned for prevailing in the race (winning or coming in second or third). The idea is to discourage owners from entering their horses in much lower quality competition, where they might pick up an easy purse, but lose their horse in the process, if it gets claimed.
- In the 6^th race, my horse had nice numbers, with one monster-race where it must have set a track record, but it came in third. The win and place horses didn’t seem to be anything special by my accounting, but that happens sometimes.
- In the 7^th, my system had three different horses at the same level. I picked the horse with the best odds, but a different one came in, this time the favorite. Mine came in next-to-last.
- I finally scored a hit on the 8^th race. This race had a couple of horses with the same rating in my system, but one of them had better early speed. I chose that one, as I figure at least you get to experience some buzz from an early speed horse, even if it fades (though that can be demoralizing). It was an easy winner, though it trailed at the start. Go figure.
- It paid $5.40 on a $2 bet. That seemed a bit low, given its morning line and late pre-race odds. I expected better. That gave me a chance to rant for a bit about Turf Paradise’s high takeout rate (25% on W/P/S compared to 15% at Woodbine, for example).
- In my actual betting, I came close to breaking even, but didn’t quite get there. The system did actually do better than break-even. However, I ignored it on the race where it really hit a longshot. So it goes.
- That was the last race of the day at Turf Paradise. There was a funny delay between the 7^th and 8^th races, of nearly an hour. Normally, races go off every half-hour or even faster. One wonders if they had to cancel a race or something like that, so they dragged out the interval to account for that.
- I should note that it looked nice and warm in Arizona. We, on the other hand, were experiencing -20 to -25 temperatures (that’s Celcius, in Farenheit that would be about ten below zero).
- Around suppertime, the place began to fill up again. A Chinese couple behind us told the waitress that it was their wedding night. They didn’t stay too long or drink any alcohol. Perhaps they had other things on their minds.
- The Monday Night Football game was now on, over the bar. Some fellow was pretty excited about the San Francisco Forty-Niners winning the game – there was plenty of yelling in jubilation and that sort of thing. Craig was a bit dismissive. He agrees with Vince Limbardi – "when you score a touchdown, act like you’ve been there before". Craig figures that should apply to fans as well as players.
- I ran into the guy in the men’s room later. Some guys insist on chatting. Anyway, he mentioned that he was from PEI and would have been playing the harness races if the football game wasn’t on. Craig ought to like him for that.
- We killed an hour or two with the bucket-pullers at Woodbine in Toronto, now that the thoroughbreds were over. I kicked in some money on exotic bets (triactors, win-3, etc.), which Craig and I went in on. I did some impromptu speed handicapping, by estimating how much each horse was over or below 2 minutes per race, over the last 3 races. Craig took those into consideration, adding some of his own theories on how the races are rigged and/or whether favorites or longshots are ‘due’.
- We came extremely close on one Pick 3 bet. The horse we needed in the final leg lost by a nose. In fact, its hoof was clearly over the line more than the other horse’s nose was, so I wondered why they didn’t declare it the winner. But Craig said that the judges always go by the nose – the nose knows.
- I don’t include the harness races in my personal handicapping score. It is just to kill time after the ‘real’ races, but it is kind of fun and can really pull you in. Especially after you’ve had a couple of beers, which we generally do towards the end of a session, being careful to stay well under the limit.
- We stayed a bit later than usual, as we were alive on a pick-3, right up to the final race at Woodbine. Sadly, that one didn’t come in. It was quite snowy in Toronto by then.
- As we were leaving, the horse races in Australia had began. It was already tomorrow there.
- Our wives were a little concerned by our relatively long session, worried about car accidents and such. It is good that someone worries about you.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

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And here is an account of a summer job on the railroad, during my undergraduate years.

One Summer Working on the Railroad

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z