Showing posts with label hockey. Show all posts

Monday, 8 June 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number 28 – Billy Budd’s (April 11, 2026)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number Twenty-Eight

28 – Billy Budd’s (April 11, 2026)

Introduction

This blog and some following blogs are sections from an informal diary of “visits to the race-track” at a particular time and place, by a person who has followed the races with varying levels of participation over a long period. These relate primarily to some visits to the track and/or off-track betting venues in the 2025 period and onward. They contain observations about the activity, both specific and general. Although these remarks are personal, they also reflect general cultural and historical trends, as they have impacted horse-racing, wagering and culture in general.

The setting is Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (population of about one million plus). However, I imagine that the observations would apply to many places in the world, as they are a reflection of how changing trends in technology, globalization and culture in general have affected this ancient and honourable activity of horse-racing.

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

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28 – Century Mile, Billy Budd’s (April 11, 2026)
- It was a pleasant Saturday afternoon, which had people eager to get out of the house. In addition, there was an afternoon hockey game, with the Oilers playing the L.A. Kings. The season was drawing to a close, so all of these games were now significant in terms of who gets into the playoffs and where they place.
- Thus, Budd’s was very busy. Its parking lot is not huge, which meant that we couldn’t find a spot. So Craig decided to carry on to try someplace else. That turned out to be Century Mile, the actual racetrack, just outside of the city, near the international airport.
- The route out to Century Mile requires taking a busy, high-speed highway. At one point, outside of the city, there was a stopped car in the right-hand lane, which we had to quickly avoid, as we were also in that lane. While passing that car, we noted that it had stopped to let a goose on the road cross. It wasn’t obvious why the goose was on the highway – it clearly was not going to be able to cross three or four lanes of high-speed traffic on foot. But nonetheless, there it was and there was the stopped car, considerately letting the goose amble along the pavement, but dangerously stopped in the right hand lane of a high-speed roadway (not the shoulder).
- This had Craig in a bit of a lather, as it was admittedly a rather dangerous situation. It put him in mind of an occasion, many years earlier, when he had hit a bear on the highway outside of Banff. Same situation – someone had stopped to gawk at the bear, blocking his view. The bear then wandered into his lane and bam! Fortunately Craig wasn’t hurt and the car was only lightly damaged. However, you couldn’t say that about the bear.
- At any rate, this experience had made quite the impression on both him and on the bear. So, when he sees someone stopping for a goose on a high-speed busy highway, he gets rather annoyed.
- When I told the story to my wife, I remarked that I couldn’t understand why the goose was so nonchalant about strolling on the highway. Usually animals on the road are quick to move aside. She replied that "geese are not known for their intelligence". Quite right, it was the archetypal silly goose.
- By the strangest of coincidences, my son and I saw another goose doing the same thing in the Safeway parking lot the next day, while shopping. The goose was being very oblivious there as well, though that was more understandable in a low-speed parking lot. In that case a car was also stopped for a goose, but it was a rather small car, so a collision with a goose might have harmed the car more than the goose.
- Anyway, enough about geese, let’s get back to the horses. Actually, there were no horses running yet at Century Mile, so we would just be attending the racetrack simulcast section of the casino.
- Even that was pretty crowded, so we ended up sitting in an adjacent room. It had the virtue of more comfortable seating than the horseracing section, as well as having the hockey game on several big screens. It was a really good game, in my opinion, so I have to confess that my interest was focussed far more on that, than on the horses.
- The other problem was that Santa Anita was not running this day. It had become my go-to Thoroughbred track, so that was a disappointment.
- I did get a program for Keeneland, in Kentucky, but it was already the 7^th race by the time we arrived, so that wasn’t great.
- I did work out my numbers for the remaining races, but I didn’t feel good about it, so I skipped all but one race. I lost that one, and I would have lost all the others as well, had I bet them.
- There is something about eastern tracks (except Woodbine) that just doesn’t connect for me and my system. I recall Andrew Beyers saying that western tracks seemed to work better for him too, maybe because the surface is firmer in the dryer climates. I suppose that is as good an explanation as any.
- As if Keeneland wasn’t bad enough, the Oilers lost the hockey game 1 to 0. So, it seemed like this place had bad karma today, so I persuaded Craig that we should go back to Budd’s and see how crowded it was now that the hockey game was over. So we did that.
- This was much better, I thought, as we took up some prime seating at Budd’s. Mind you, it was rather sparsely attended by now, which was too bad, as I find people-watching to be quite interesting at the track or the OTB. However, horses come first.
- So, we buckled down to pick the bucket-pullers at Woodbine/Mohawk, where I was fortunate enough to experience the ‘magic hour’.
  - Race 3 was just ready to go off when we sat down. Unfortunately I was a little late in going to the machines to bet, so I was shut out. That was too bad, as it paid off at 5 to 2.
  - I was a little peckish for beer and French fries by then, so I decided to bet conservatively on Race 4. This was in keeping with my rule to have no alcohol until I had won a race. I call this a beer-bet. So, cheating slightly, I bet show on the 7, which had several good indicators, based on my statistical analysis. It won easily, paying 3 to 1. Naturally, the show ticket paid considerably less (2.50). I guess a lot of people wanted to win a beer-bet.
  - Race 5 was one of those Woodbine harness-racing specials, where there is a huge odds drop from morning line to final odds. I knew it wouldn’t pay much, but for a laugh I bet it to win. It won, paying a whopping 2.70 to win.
  - For Race 6 I bet the #6, which had several good indicators. It won handily, going wire-to-wire (though that was not its usual running style). I finally got one that paid nicely, at 6.60 to win.
  - That was to be end of the magic hour, where every bet came in just as it should. Having said that, at least one more bet was to pay off, as were some exotics, though all paid very little.
  - Race 7 was a funny one. The #3 horse was bet down to extremely low odds, though it made no sense to me. Given that, I decided to bet on a long-shot to show. The favorite did win, for 2.70 and a long-shot did come in second at 70 to 1 odds (paying 28.50 to place), though it wasn’t my longshot, which finished down the track.
  - Race 8 was similar. The favorite was bet way down, as was the second favorite. Thus, I took a flyer on a long-shot show bet again. A long-shot did come in to show, though not the long-shot that I bet. At the same time, a Win-3 that Craig and I had bet came in, paying back its investment, with a little to spare.
  - Race 9 carried on the trend from Race 7 and 8. The favorite was bet way down (3 to 10), though the second favorite remained at 3 to 1 at race time. They finished in that order, with the favorite paying 2.50 to win and the second favorite paying 2.60 to place. I had thrown another long-shot show bet on the race, which came in third, but only paid 2.30 to show. It went off at 11 to 1, so it seemed incredible that it would pay so little to show. I guess it was the big favorite in the show pool. With non-win bets, you can never know, unless you are at the track and can watch the tote board. Which, of course, you can’t do at OTB.
  - Hilariously enough, Craig and I hit the Superfecta on the 9^th race. That requires picking the first four finishers, in the right order. Even with two favorites in Win and Place, you would think it would pay off well, since the other two horses had high odds. But it was not to be, paying off only 20 dollars on each 1 dollar bet. After all was said and done, it paid off the investment with a small profit.
  - That was it for the betting, at least for me. The 10^th race was all long-shots, but none of them were pickable by my logic, so I skipped it.
- That was it for this episode. In summary, it was a slightly profitable day, though with winning four out of seven bets, one might have expected more. To be fair, some of those were show bets and those paid off surprisingly poorly. I lost my one thoroughbred bet and won 4 out of 6 harness bets.

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And here are a couple of short books you might like.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

Every gambler is bound to run out of luck eventually, right?

By far my favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.

It would have been helpful to have more character development in this short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well done.

I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of empathy for folks in his position.

A Dark Horse – A Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season and beyond.

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And here’s an account of some road trips in south-western Alberta:

A Selection of Back-Road Trips Around Southwest Alberta

There are two main aspects to a road trip: the journey and the destination. Sometimes the trip is all about the journey, sometimes it’s all about the destination. Usually it is a little of both.

This collection of back-roads journeys feature a little bit of both of these aspects. Some accounts are more about the ‘journey’, such as a road trip on scenic Highway 22. Others are more about the ‘destination’, such as the show-jumping at Spruce Meadows. I hope you will enjoy reading some of these accounts and maybe give them a spin for yourself.

Southwest 1 – A Road Trip on Scenic Highway 22

Southwest 2 – The Equestrian Competitions at Spruce Meadows (Calgary)

Southwest 3 – The Bar U Ranch, south of Long View

Southwest 4 – Kananaskis Country

Southwest 5 – Blackfoot Crossing

Southwest 6 – Back-roads, from the Prairies to the Foothills: Brazeau Dam Trip

Southwest 7 – A Back-roads Trip to Hinton and the Forestry Trunk Roads

The reader may wonder “what about the Ice-fields Parkway?” or “where is a visit to Banff?” I would answer, that these famous destinations are covered very nicely by other books. This account is meant to focus on some less travelled areas, thus the “back-roads” descriptor.

I should note that the other three quadrants of Alberta also have a lot of interesting back-roads journeys, but those are material for some other books which will be published in due time.

Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon U.K: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon CA: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Tuesday, 7 April 2026

The Gambler’s Fallacy vs Regression to the Mean - Can a Bet be "Due to Win"

In statistics, betting, and life in general, we are often faced with the dilemma of what seem to be unusual streaks of bad or good luck. When these occur, it is natural to wonder when the streak will end, whether it will be soon or whether the wait will be interminable. It is natual to wonder, "Am I due for a change in luck?" From there, it is an easy transition to decide "I must be due".

Here is a story. This happened to me recently while betting the thoroughbreds at Santa Anita racetrack. To be precise, it was the horses that were at that California racetrack. I was at a local off-track racing venue of my hometown. But the illusion of ‘being there’ can be strong, especially when caught in the moment of a lucky or unlucky streak.

In my case it was the latter. I had bet 7 straight races, using a handicapping method that had worked surprisingly well during the previous two dozen forays to the track. It involved some fairly rigorous mathematical techniques and was well-grounded in the realities of horseracing (a speed handicapping method of my own invention). In all 7 races my horse had lost, with only a couple even being vaguely close. This was highly unusual, given the method’s previous success rate.

With the final race on deck, I had to dip into some cash reserves, which I hadn’t had to do for quite some time, as I had been playing with previous winnings up until then. I was tempted to skip the final race, but then I decided against it. You might just as well finish the job, I thought. I walked up to the betting machine to purchase a win ticket for the final race, with the grim forboding of a person stuck in a losing streak.

Then the thought occurred to me – "I must be due, there is no way this losing streak can continue. It seems so obvious. Plus, I have just bought a fresh betting voucher and have more than adequate financial resources anyway. So, why not step up the bet and win it all back?"

This, I proceeded to do.

The race was confusing. The colours that the horses were wearing were difficult to make out in the stretch drive. In fact, I made the notation in a small notebook: "Lost. Also ran. Back of field." So, it looked like I wasn’t due, after all.

But then the fellow next to me said "It looks like the 6 won."

"What’s that?" I thought. "That can’t be – I bet on the 6!"

But he was right. I had mistaken the colours of the 2 horse and the 6 horse. So I was due! Not only that, I had stepped up my bet by enough to cover all my previous losses, with some to spare.

So, was I due or was I not due? Or does that even make sense?

The Gambler’s Fallacy

In an introductory statistics course, you are likely to be introduced to the notion of the gambler’s fallacy. An example of this is coin flipping. If you flip a coin a fairly large number of times, and heads comes up more often than tails, it seems intuitively obvious that you can safely bet on tails and win the game (at least until things equal out).

Unfortunately, that is not a good strategy, as the coin doesn’t have a memory – it doesn’t know that tails are due. In the long run, the percentage of heads vs tails will tend to 50:50, but that can take a long time. Indeed, the preponderance of heads can continue to grow in raw numbers, even as the percentage of heads drops and approaches 50%. This does seem rather counter-intuitive, but it can be proved mathematically via the use of something called the mean value theorem.

Regression to the Mean

This is a different but related concept. Basically, it says that in some complex process (more complicated than coin-flipping), if a participant begins to perform much better (or worse) than its long-term average, the participant will regress back towards that average (fairly soon). So, for example, a hockey player on a heater (e.g. scoring streak) will likely go back to his long-term scoring, given enough time. Same for a horse (or some category of horse) at the race track. It is also works in genetics, where offspring tend to revert back to their ancestors in some characteristic, short of selective breeding.

How is this different from coin-tossing. I would venture to say that it is different because these processes do have a memory. Hockey players who go on a heater will generally be having some puck-luck, which can create as a high confidence level, at least temporarily. Opponents will become aware of the player’s scoring streak and actively try to subvert it (that’s what the game is all about). He will be shadowed by the opposing team’s best checker. He may be singled out for some rough play. The player’s confididence may then drop, as will his performance.

Similarly for horseraces. The horse has a memory, though it is difficult to say how much that affects a horse. However, trainers and jockeys definitely have memories that will affect the process. A hot horse may get better treatment from trainers and jockeys, thus helping its win streak. On the other hand, it may be run too often and get physically worn out. Its betting odds will drop, which may motivate trainers and jockeys to darken its form, so as to improve its odds. Horses running against it will have better odds, which may ensure that jockeys and trainers go to extra lengths to beat the hot horse.

So, basically, there are multiple participants in these types of complex games, all with their own goals and strategies (thousands to millions in the stock market). The combination of these actor’s strategies will tend to cancel each other out, thus tending to bring all the opponens back to long-term performance metrics.

Conclusion

So, which phenomenon prevails? The Gambler’s Fallacy (don’t base actions on the notion of something being ‘due’) or Regression to the Mean (you probably can base actions on something being due).

I don’t really know. I am conflicted. But I think it is probably a reasonable strategy for complex games (sports, stock markets, predictive markets) but not for relatively simple games.

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And here are a couple of short works that you might enjoy, if these matters interest you.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

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And here is an account of a summer job on the railroad, during my undergraduate years.

One Summer Working on the Railroad

What follows is anaccount of a few weeks one long-ago summer, when I was 19 and was working for the Canadian National Railway (CNR) on a railroad construction gang, in the wilds of north-central British Columbia, Canada.

The journal is in the form of a letter, that was never sent. Decades later, I think it has an interesting historical resonance. At times I come off like a callow youth – I plead guilty as charged. I swore a lot more in those days than I do now, but in places the writing is surprisingly good, at least in my humble opinion. And the story has a compelling narrative arc.

There were a lot of interesting and dramatic events that occurred – a number of industrial accidents being the most serious. There were also some colorful characters on the crew, which resulted in some dramatic and at times amusing conflicts and altercations. I perhaps flatter myself by including myself in that number. Or perhaps I condemn myself – I’m not sure.

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

The memoir/journal is about 9,000 words, a length that can usually be read in an hour or so. It is priced at 99 cents U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and is free on Kindle Unlimited. Periodically, it will be offered as a free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Tuesday, 17 March 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number 19 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 2, 2026)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

Nineteen

19 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 2, 2026)

Introduction

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

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19 – Billy Budd’s (Jan 2, 2026)
- What with all the usual business of the Christmas season, as well as some big snowfalls, we took a long break and returned on the Friday after New Year’s Day to Budd’. On this day my brother Craig and I were joined by my son Scott, who has occasionally joined us, when he had a spare day to while away some time with dad and uncle.
- It was a surprisingly sparse crowd for a Friday, but Craig informed me that New Year’s Day is a major day at the tracks, so most horseplayers were probably exhausted by that (out of both money and energy, I suppose). So, it was just us and a few stalwarts.
- We arrived at the usual time, a little before 2:00 p.m., at about the time that Santa Anita was beginning. I suppose this would have been more appropriate for the pre-Christmas visit, then it would be a Santa Anita Claus visit.
- I have had pretty good results with the Santa Anita races, so this suited me just fine.
- Scott and I bet the Santa Anita card, while Craig bet some of that, as well as bucket-pullers, once they got going, later in the day. Since Scott and I were betting Santa Anita, we split the duties for computing our numbers, he would do one race, I would do the next. Once we got down to the betting, we could each make our own choices.
- We were too late to bet the first race, though the system’s preferred horse did come in, at $18.40 to win.
- For the second race, our preferred horse came in to win at 6.80 for a $2 bet. I got that, as did Scott, though I don’t know if he had a win ticket or an exactor. In either case, he was quite happy about it.
- For the third race, the system’s top two horses were short odds, so I bet a different horse that also had good speed and pace, as well as nice odds. That came in at $11 on a $2 bet to win.
- I was feeling pretty good about things, but then hit the skids on the 4^th, 5^th and 6^th races. One of those came close on a show bet, coming in fourth in the 4^th race. It was a 30-1 odds horse on the morning line, so it was worth a shot. For the 5^th and 6^th, my decent-odds with a chance both came in second last.
- On the 7^th race, the system picked a fast horse with good odds. I decided to go place on that one, and it came in at $5 for a place ticket.
- On the 8^th race and final race (it was a short card at Santa Anita), my fast horse with good odds came in second last. So, I was either picking paying horses or second-last horses today (one fourth as well). So it goes.
- Scott didn’t win any more races, but missed a couple of nice plays, which came in second by a nose (he had win tickets). I guess I was lucky with the place betting, though in the long run Scott’s method works best, in my experience (i.e. sticking to win tickets). However, I felt a bit bad for him – playing the horses with your offspring (even when they are adults) is a bit tough, as you always want to see them get a good result, whether that be in school, work or sports (such as the race-track).
- With Santa Anita done, the serious handicapping was over for me and Scott.
- That also meant I could have a beer or two. I don’t usually drink more than that, but that is especially so at the track. Alcohol and winning bets at the horseraces don’t really go together very well (yes, you can get lucky sometimes). Plus, working out numbers, whether via mental math estimation or the use of a calculator does tax the old noggin, so it is best to keep it in good working order during the handicapping process.
- Scott and Craig also ordered a beer. Scott was getting peckish, so he ordered some sort of noodle dish, which he said was fine.
- The waitress came by to take our order. She was a smiley one, with a nice sense of humour:
  - Her: Have the horsies been good to you fellows today?
  - Me: They have been to me.
  - Her: Really? That’s good. Nobody ever says that to me when I ask.
  - (that exchange probably upped her tip by at least 5 percentage points).
- The harness races were now starting at Woodbine, which Craig enjoys. So, Scott and I kicked in a few bucks to get some action on them, while we waited for Craig to finish betting his bucket-pullers.
- To that end, I bought a program for Woodbine, to attempt some modified speed handicapping.
- We weren’t too successful, though we did have one amusing win. In that case, we won a pick-3 (where you pick the winners of 3 races in a row in a single bet). But nothing but favorites came in during those three races, so it paid a whopping $26.90 on a $2 bet.
- But these exotic bets can add up, if you start making multiple bets. For example, this ‘winner’ was a bet on All/4/2,7; that meant any horse in the first leg, the 4 horse in the second leg and the 2 or 7 horse in the third leg.
- The winners were 6-4-2, which was one of our choices. But they were all fairly short-priced, at $4.10, $7.30, $3.80 to win respectively. Since these were low-odds horses, the combo bet only paid $26.90.
- But wait! There’s more! We had joke money on the bet, only $0.20 per bet. So, that ticket paid a $2.69.
- Fortunately I had suggested to Craig that we double up the bet, so we actually had two tickets, which brought the total to $5.38. Split three ways, that was $1.79 each. Hurrah!
- But it was a moral victory and that counts for something. (I will try not to gloat.)
- We then parlayed that big win to the next possible pick-3. We bet 6,9/4,6/6.
- In the first leg, the 6 came in and paid $2.70 to win. So it was an enormous favorite. It was named "Get Wings" and it did exactly that, closing from second by a head at the 3/4 point to win by 3 lengths. It was impressive. What was also impressive is that it had a price drop from 5-2 odds to 1-5 in the last few minutes of betting. Conversely, the horse who came in second went from 8-1 in the morning line to closing odds of 99-1. Things that make you go hmmmm. Obviously, the inside money ‘knew something’.
- In the second leg, our two picks came in second and third, so that was that. They both paid joke money, so I guess it didn’t really matter, it would have been another joke payday.
- So we packed it in. The Australian races were starting (it was already tomorrow there). It always looks so sunny and cheerful there. A spacious racetrack too.
- They put some weird-looking red headgear on the horses there and in the U.K.. That is rather jarring – a vaguely Satanic look. Apparently it calms the horses down (the ears block sound).
- On the way out we caught a bit of the International Junior Hockey tournament, where Canada had beaten Latvia 2 to 1. Another screen had New York Rangers beating the Florida Panthers (the game ended 5-1 for NYR).
- Speaking of hockey I mentioned to Craig that I watched a replay of the famed 1975 New Years Eve game between the Montreal Canadiens and the Russian Red Army. It was a very good game, though rather different from games nowadays. I mentioned that one of the players, Larry Robinson, looked a lot like one of our old racetrack cronies.
  - At the mention of this fellow, Craig said "yeah, he’d slit your throat to win a bet, but then he’d stitch you up too." Racing talk in those days was very colourful.
- If you are a Canadian, the former result (Canada over Latvia) was good. If you are an Oilers fan, the latter result was good (NYR over Florida). The 1975 result was good too, but it was kind of late to make a bet on it.
- Plus, I won 3 out of 7 thoroughbred bets (picked up some stable-coin), so all was right with the world.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here is an account of a summer job on the railroad, during my undergraduate years.

One Summer Working on the Railroad

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Friday, 6 March 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number Seventeen Billy Budd’s (Dec 13, 2025)

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

Seventeen

Billy Budd’s (Dec 13, 2025)

Introduction

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

======================================================================

17 – Billy Budd’s (Dec 13, 2025)
- With mid-winter upon us, Billy Budd’s on the south-side is becoming our favorite haunt. This was an extremely wintry day. There had been some snow on the previous day and the temperature was a cool -24 C overnight (thats -11 F). It warmed up somewhat over the day, though, to about -11 C (that’s about +12 F).
- The racetrack section of the place was rather crowded, moreso than usual, though it was a Saturday, so maybe normal for that day of the week. In fact, to begin with we had to take the final booth at the back of the section. That was rather far from the dozen or so TV screens and the lighting wasn’t great. So, at the first chance we got, we migrated a ways closer to the screen, in the arc-shaped section with undermount lighting.
- The early crowd was quite enthusiastic, for an off-track betting site:
  - One guy shouting at the top of his voice "Come on Noro, come on Noro!" (or something like that). His race ended in a photo finish, nearly a dead heat. My brother said "I hope he loses, I don’t care for shouters." But he won, and I think it was at a rather nice price.
  - Another guy shouting, shouting, shouting: "Fuck off, fuck off! Shit horse!" I’m guessing his horse didn’t win.
  - Then there was another guy was just below us, dropping a lot of F-bombs, in a gravelly voice. Swearing isn’t so bad, but it is a good idea to use some discretion while doing so, unless you know a lot of colourful and unique cusses (my dad was an expert, probably because of his time in the Canadian army, Royal Canadian Engineers). Otherwise it is just boring.
- Though it was still fairly early in the afternoon (about 1:45), most tracks in the east were well into their cards. Woodbine was pretty far gone, as were Gulfstream and Auqaduct. I chose to bet on a place in New Mexico, Zia Park.
  - This track has a mixed quarterhorse and thoroughbred racing schedule. Whether it qualifies as Class A or Class B is open to debate, which makes a difference for takeouts. It seems to have a takeout of 19% on WPS and 21% on exotic bets. That’s rather on the high side, but not as high as some.
  - It was rather different, as the races were all short sprints, often involving no turns. 870 yards was common (just under half a mile or four furlongs). Some races were as short as 300 to 400 yards (under a quarter-mile).
  - That would negate any advantage based on pole position (e.g. a track bias for horses running from an inside pole, if the ground is unusually firm along the rail). Furthermore, early speed seems to be almost meaningless, if a race is only a quarter-mile.
- Zia Park was also fairly far into its card, with the 6^th race being the first I could bet. I tried an exactor, no luck. One of my picks was in the money, but the other was far down the track.
- The seventh didn’t seem bettable, 2 year-old maidens (i.e. never won a race), most of whom had never even been in the money (a couple had placed third in a previous race). My system only includes "in-the-money" races, so I skipped this race. (I had written in my notebook ‘Maidens, no form to speak of. Only in the money occasionally)
- The eighth race had a couple of horses with decent speed, handily better than the rest. I bet the 9 to win, which had good odds, but it came in third.
- At that point I was honestly feeling pretty tired and a little depressed, wondering if I was coming down with something. Here is an amusing anecdote about that:
  - The night before, I had dreamt that I was back at some university sociology seminar course and the instructor served something she called "sallow beef soup", which was supposed to be a delicacy, some place or another. I had a few spoonfulls, which were alright at first, but then started to make me feel sick. The instructor said "does anyone know what sallow refers to in this context?". I said "salty". Upon awakening, I did feel kind of sick.
  - A few days later I looked it up on google and its AI said:
    - "Sallow beef soup" appears to refer to salted beef soup, a traditional Caribbean dish often served with ground provisions and various vegetables. The term "sallow" is likely a transcription error for "salted" or might be a regional variation of "swallow," a starchy side dish like fufu or pounded yam that is often served alongside the soup "
- On top of the weirdly accurate dream, the unsuccessful betting wasn’t helping matters, in terms of my perceived health and energy levels. Nonetheless, I worked out my numbers for the 9^th race, and determined that the 7 horse should be a decent bet at 3-1 odds. With some trepidation, I went and placed a larger than usual bet on it.
- And indeed, that horse did come in, paying $5.40 to win (on a 2 dollar bet). So, that erased my losses for the other two races and put me well over the top (I had upped my usual bet for this race, since it looked so good).
- Suddenly I felt great! The incipient sickness went away almost immediately. A nice craft IPA beer followed, which only made my mood even better.
- I skipped the 10^th race (my notebook said "Not enough time to work out numbers").
- By now the crowd had dwindled down to a hearty few souls. With the racing at Zia Park done, my serious betting was over.
- We then settled in for an hour or so of betting on the bucket-pullers (harness races). I don’t handicap those, so I don’t count that in my serious horseracing endeavours, but I do shoot my brother Craig a few bucks, to go in on one of his bets, just for the action.
- Craig won a nice exotic bet, but the machine didn’t cut the voucher properly. So, I went to the bar and the bartender used her handy pair if scissors to snip it cleanly. She was was very helpful and used to the problem, since that particular machine tended to be a bit wonky.
- With a big win, Craig bought me a beer. He abstained from anymore himself, having had a couple already, since he had to drive home within the hour.
- The waitress could have easily scored a job at Hooters (does that even exist anymore?). I couldn’t help noticing – that’s what winning bets and having a beer can do to you. The wife of a friend of mine waitressed for some years and said ‘you can’t be too shy about this if you want to make decent tips’. In general, the waitresses and other staff at this place are quite good; efficient, friendly and usually in a good mood. Tips must be good.
- Woodbine/Mohawk had a match race between Santa and the Grinch. Santa won, but it was obvious to me that the race was fixed. There was not betting on the race, so no bother about that.
- About that time, a big snowstorm was hitting eastern North America:
  - Races at Turfway Park in Kentucky were cancelled due to weather.
  - Sleet was coming down hard at the Meadowlands in New Jersey, but the bucket-pullers kept going anway.
  - At Laurel Park in Maryland, great clouds of water were thrown up as the thoroughbreds came out of the turn.
  - Woodbine/Mohawk in Toronto was snowy and very wintery looking, very appropriate for the Santa/Grinch race.
  - Evangeline Racetrack in Louisiana had rain and sleet.
  - Northfield Park, in Cleveland Ohio, had a monster snowstorm, with snow and sleet just hammering down. I suppose that was the famous ‘lake effect’ from Lake Erie. But the bucket-pullers there would not stop. We watched as one race paid $115 to win, a 60 to 1 long shot. Had it not won, Craig and I would have won a sizable bet ourselves. So it goes, with the vaguaries of the weather usurping the Sport of Kings.
- Craig started looking through his tickets to see if he had missed any winners. Lo and behold, it turned out that he had bet his $140 winner twice, so he had another ticket worth the same amount. Earlier in the day, he had picked up a $110 win. It was like that old Rocky and Bullwinkle cartoon: "Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out if my hat."
- On hockey night in Canada, the Oilers whipped the Leafs 6-3. I watched that from the racing section, as it was on some of the televisions over the bar. They had their new goalie, after trading Skinner for Jarry. He did ok, at least so far.
- I had mentioned to my wife that complaining about Skinner had become a sort of bonding ritual between me and my brother, so now we won’t have that. She said: "I guess you’ll just have to take more interest in the bucket-pullers now." Very astute and very amusing.
- And that was a day that ended very well indeed.
  =======================================================================

Here's a short story that involves horseracing:

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here is an account of a summer job on the railroad, during my undergraduate years.

One Summer Working on the Railroad

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z