Showing posts with label data science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label data science. Show all posts

Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number 46 – “The Library” (Continental Inn) (Sep 20, 2026)

  

Race Track Diary, Entry Number Forty-six – “The Library” (Continental Inn) 

(Sep 20, 2026)

Introduction

This blog and some following blogs are sections from an informal diary of “visits to the race-track” at a particular time and place, by a person who has followed the races with varying levels of participation over a long period. These relate primarily to some visits to the track and/or off-track betting venues in the 2025 period and onward. They contain observations about the activity, both specific and general. Although these remarks are personal, they also reflect general cultural and historical trends, as they have impacted horse-racing, wagering and culture in general.

The setting is Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (population of about one million plus). However, I imagine that the observations would apply to many places in the world, as they are a reflection of how changing trends in technology, globalization and culture in general have affected this ancient and honourable activity of horse-racing.

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

======================================================================

  • 46 – “The Library” (Continental Inn) (Sep 20, 2026)

    • There was a rather long break in the action, due to unexpected developments, namely an accident that someone close to me experienced (my wife, actually). That necessitated much worry and many hospital visits. It was also a reminder of what really matters in life. Activities like horse-racing or golf are great, but they pale in significance when someone close to you is in jeopardy, whether by accident or some other medical misfortune.

    • However that person was now recovering nicely, so my brother and I decided to make a brief foray to an off-track betting room during one sunny afternoon. I decided that there was no point moping about the house forever. The accident victim concurred and encouraged me to ‘just go ahead and bet on your horsies’.

    • This is a place in the west end that Craig jokingly refers to as “the library”, as it is a venue where older gentlemen quietly contemplate the horse-races.

    • While there, we met up with Teddy, an old friend of Craig’s, who is an extremely enthusiastic horse player. He was not quite so quiet as the other gents in the pub.

    • For much of the time we were there, his horses were not playing nice, which had him in some audible distress. However, at the end of the day, he hit on a big win ticket, backed up by a big place ticket and an exactor, so that improved his mood considerably. That was good to see.

    • We were only visiting for a short time and the harness races at Woodbine/Mohawk didn’t start until late in the afternoon, so I advance bet those races. That involves punching one’s picks into the betting machines far before the races begin, then going home to do other things.

    • Teddy asked if I would watch the races at home, on the internet. I said “no, I will check the results tomorrow.” He was surprised by my equanimity in such matters. But I replied that I see this as more of an intellectual challenge and an opportunity to put my data science skills to use, than as gambling per se. He accepted that, though with some amazement, I suspect.

    • I should note that I bet the top-ranked horse from my ROI model. This is a model that is optimized for return on investment (ROI) rather than straight win percentage. Advance betting meant that I couldn’t adjust my betting as the odds on each horse changed before the race. It also meant straight win bets on this occasion.

    • Anyway, here are my results for the races at Woodbine/Mohawk.

      • In the First race, I bet the #2 horse, which went off at better than 20-1 odds. It finished in 5th place, which is not too surprising given those odds. As I mentioned above, the system is optimized for ROI, so betting on the occasional long-odds horse is part of the system.

      • In the Second race, I bet the #8 horse, which came in second by a length. It went off at 19 to 1 odds, and paid $12.50 on each $2 bet to place. So that was pretty close.

      • In the Third, I bet the #6 horse, at 41 to 1. It finished in 6th place, well back by over 10 lengths.

      • In the Fourth race, I bet the #4 horse. It came in fourth, four lengths off the winner. That was a 40 to 1 shot.

      • In the Fifth race, I finally got a winner, though its odds were only a bit over even money. It paid $4.30 to win on each $2 bet. Depending on the competition in the race, this ROI system will sometimes pick a relatively low-odds horse. And, of course, at the time that the data is entered it is impossible to know what the final odds on any given horse will be.

      • In the Sixth race, I got another winner (#1 horse), which paid $7.60 on each $2 bet. It won quite handily, by 2 lengths, running in the front for the last half of the race. Interestingly, it ran out of the one-hole, a post I prefer to avoid. Sometimes playing a system diligently gets you to do things you wouldn’t normally do. In this case it was a good thing.

      • In Race 7, I bet the #4 horse, which went off at 28 to 1, and placed fourth.

      • In the Eighth, I bet #4 again, which came in second, a couple of ticks back from the winner. The horse went off at over 100 to 1, so talk about agonizingly close. For place, it paid $57.40.

      • In Race 9, I bet the #1 horse. It went off at 12 to 1 and came in fourth.

      • In the Tenth, I bet the #5 horse. Though its odds were only 9 to 2, it did nothing, finishing next to last, 10 lengths behind the winner.

      • Finally, in the 11th Race I got another winner, this one paying $11.50 to win. It had a very good stretch run, nipping the lead horse at the wire, by a head. So, I guess I was saved by the cavalry.

    • In summary, it was a fair day, with my horses doing a bit better than breaking even, winning 3 out of 11 bets, at pretty good odds. . In percentage terms, it was a 6.4% return on investment.

        

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 And here’s an account of some road trips in south-western Alberta:

A Selection of Back-Road Trips Around

 Southwest Alberta

There are two main aspects to a road trip: the journey and the destination. Sometimes the trip is all about the journey, sometimes it’s all about the destination. Usually it is a little of both.

This collection of back-roads journeys feature a little bit of both of these aspects. Some accounts are more about the ‘journey’, such as a road trip on scenic Highway 22. Others are more about the ‘destination’, such as the show-jumping at Spruce Meadows. I hope you will enjoy reading some of these accounts and maybe give them a spin for yourself.

Southwest 1 – A Road Trip on Scenic Highway 22

Southwest 2 – The Equestrian Competitions at Spruce Meadows (Calgary)

Southwest 3 – The Bar U Ranch, south of Long View

Southwest 4 – Kananaskis Country

Southwest 5 – Blackfoot Crossing

Southwest 6 – Back-roads, from the Prairies to the Foothills: Brazeau Dam Trip

Southwest 7 – A Back-roads Trip to Hinton and the Forestry Trunk Roads

The reader may wonder “what about the Ice-fields Parkway?” or “where is a visit to Banff?” I would answer, that these famous destinations are covered very nicely by other books. This account is meant to focus on some less travelled areas, thus the “back-roads” descriptor.

I should note that the other three quadrants of Alberta also have a lot of interesting back-roads journeys, but those are material for some other books which will be published in due time.

Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon U.K: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon CA: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0DCMJP47G



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The Zoo Hypothesis


We present a story giving a possible scenario for the so-called Zoo Hypothesis, an explanation known in Star Trek lore as the Prime Directive. It’s an explanation sometimes given to account for a mystery in the Search for Intelligent Life, known as The Great Silence, or Fermi’s Paradox.


Basically, Enrico Fermi argued (quite convincingly, to many observers), that there had been ample time for an alien intelligence to colonize the galaxy since its formation, so where are they? The Zoo Hypotheses says that they are out there, but have cordoned off the Earth from contact, until we are sufficiently evolved or culturally advanced to handle the impact of alien contact.

This story takes a humorous tongue in cheek approach to that explanation. It also features dogs and sly references to Star Trek. Talk about man’s Best Friend.

It is only 99 cents U.S., equivalent price in other currencies. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is sometimes on a free promotion.

Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B076RR1PGD



A Selection of Back-Road Trips Around 

Southeast Alberta

There are two main aspects to a road trip: the journey and the destination. Sometimes the trip is all about the journey, sometimes it’s all about the destination. Usually it is a little of both.

This collection of back-roads journeys feature a little bit of both of these aspects. Some accounts are more about the ‘journey’, such as Drumheller, via the Backroads of Central Alberta. Others are more about the ‘destination’, such as the Viking Ribstones. The collection even includes a train trip, on the historic Alberta Prairie Railroad, which strictly speaking isn't a back-road trip but rather a back rail-road trip. I hope you will enjoy reading some of these accounts and maybe give them a spin for yourself.


Southeast 1 – Stettler Train Trip – Living History on the Alberta Prairie Railway

Southeast 2 – Viking Rib Stones – Indigenous Heritage and Tradition

Southeast 3 – Drumheller, via the Backroads of Central Alberta

Southeast 4 – Cypress Hills – An Island on the Prairie that Escaped the Ice Age

Southeast 5 – On the Road with Bronco Billy, A Trucking Journal – Southern Alberta Section

Southeast 6 – A Back-road Trip to Bittern Lake and Lake Miquelon Provincial Park

Southeast 7 – A Back-roads Trip to Rochon Sands, Buffalo Lake Provincial Park

The reader may wonder “what about the Tyrell Dinosaur Fossil Museum?” or “where is a visit to the Calgary Stampede?” I would answer, that these famous destinations are covered very nicely by other books. This account is meant to focus on some less travelled areas, thus the “back-roads” descriptor.

I should note that Southwest and Northern Alberta also have a lot of interesting back-roads journeys, but that is material for some other books. The southwest collection is available now on Amazon, the northern excursions will be published in due course.

Just $1.99 on Amazon, or free if you have Kindle Unlimited. It is also periodically on free promotion.


Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon U.K: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon CA: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0DCWCCTKC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil.  Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.


U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5


Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

Every gambler is bound to run out of luck eventually, right?

By far my favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.

It would have been helpful to have more character development in this short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well done.

I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of empathy for folks in his position.

A Dark Horse – A Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season and beyond.



Wednesday, 5 August 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number 38 – Billy Budd’s (July 13, 2026)

  

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

 Thirty-Eight

38 – Billy Budd’s (July 13, 2026)

Introduction

This blog and some following blogs are sections from an informal diary of “visits to the race-track” at a particular time and place, by a person who has followed the races with varying levels of participation over a long period. These relate primarily to some visits to the track and/or off-track betting venues in the 2025 period and onward. They contain observations about the activity, both specific and general. Although these remarks are personal, they also reflect general cultural and historical trends, as they have impacted horse-racing, wagering and culture in general.

The setting is Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (population of about one million plus). However, I imagine that the observations would apply to many places in the world, as they are a reflection of how changing trends in technology, globalization and culture in general have affected this ancient and honourable activity of horse-racing.

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

======================================================================

  • 38 – Billy Budd’s (July 13, 2026)

    • This visit was on a Monday, as rainfall on Saturday had created difficult driving conditions. Monday tends to be a very slow day for many activities and it was the same for horse-races on this day. That meant the horse-racing section was nearly empty, as was the pub area.

    • Monday is also a day where the purses are rather low and a lot of the races are confined to younger horses, 2-year-olds and 3-year-olds. Thus, the horses did not have very long track records, so I assumed that a system that relied on past performance data was likely to be disadvantaged.

    • I had come up with a new predictive scoring method, that ranked horses based on past win percentage and past return on investment. This was an alternative to my current system, which used data on generally good betting situations, picking out horses in each race that fit the relevant criteria. It had done reasonably well, but I thought a more fine-grained method might identify even more possibilities. Of course, that creates the possibility of too many choices and subsequent indecision. In the stats game we call that “paralysis by analysis”.

    • Here is an example of the general idea (picked at random and is actually from July 11). The morning line for each horse is along the x-axis and the predicted win likelihood is along the y-axis. The number beside each square marker is the horse’s number in the program. In this example, my prediction and the morning line are in agreement that the #5 horse should win, though the morning line odds for the #7 is tied with the #5. My system has the #7 coming in second. Both the morning line and my system predict that the #1 horse will show.

    • For this race my picks and the morning line are in rather close agreement. For the stats people out there the R-square is 0.9, which is very high for such a model. Needless to say, that doesn’t happen all the time (or even very much of the time).

    • In the actual race (race 4, July 11, 2026), the finish was 6,4,1, while the model predicted 5,7,1 and the racetrack touts’ morning line was also 5,7,1 (or 7,5,1 due to the tie). So, we both predicted the show horse. That’s awesome, ha ha! Ok, the system needs work.



    • Would would happen today? Would the new system work better? Or was the old system good enough? There was nothing to do, but test these theories.

    • I should note that the systems were designed for the harness races, so I will focus on them. The ideas should translate to the thoroughbreds, more or less. But Monday is a rather quiet day for thoroughbreds and getting the necessary information to analyze them is more difficult than for the bucket-pullers.

    • So, here are the results for Woodbine/Mohawk harness races:

      • In Race #1, I bet #6 to win, based on my Win Pct technique. Unfortunately, it came in second, paying over $7 to place, which is a pretty good price for a place ticket. The #4 horse won with a nice stretch run, paying $66 to win. As it happened, my ROI system picked it to win, but the odds scared me off. Too bad. It was a good lesson, though. A system that focuses on ROI, and thus will pick fewer winners, but those it does pick correctly will pay more, takes a lot of patience and dare I say it, courage. It turned out to be the only winner that the ROI system picked that day, but a $66 winner is worth waiting for.

      • In Race #2 I stepped down to a show bet on the #3 horse, which ranked first in one system and had nice odds. It actually came in second, and paid $4.10 for show (its win odds were 11 to 1). So, that was ok.

      • In Race #3, I bet the #4 horse to show. The systems didn’t pick it to be in the money, but they did show it to be competitive and it went off at 22 to 1. However it lost, coming in 6th.

      • In Race #4, both systems rated the #7 horse highly, so I put show money on it, as it was going off at 7 to 1. It led throughout most of the race, but was soundly beaten in the stretch.

      • In Race #5, I bet another long odds horse (8 to 1), the #9, to show. It looked to be competitive and it was, but not competitive enough, coming in fourth.

      • In Race #6, the #7 horse was highly rated by both systems, and went off at very good odds of 6 to 1. So I bet it, again to show. However, it didn’t show any interest during the race, starting off in 8th place and ending up in 6th.

      • The same was true of Race 7, where my #6 horse did nothing, coming in dead last.

      • In Race 8, I bet on a second-favourite, the #6. It started out well, but seemed to get boxed and came in sixth, so that was all she wrote.

      • In Race 9, I took the #8 horse. It had high ratings in both systems and went off at good odds of 9 to 1. But this one also finished out-of-the-money.

      • Finally, in Race 10, I took the #9 to show at 27 to 1 odds. It did nothing.

    • So, there you go, kind of a wipe-out day, losing 9 of 10 bets, though the one successful bet paid pretty well. These systems weren’t just doing it today.

    • I suppose that my conclusion is that they had me chasing long-shots and that didn’t pay off, at least on this day. Had I stuck with the highly-ranked horses that the system picked based on win pct, I would have won 6 out of 10 place bets. However, this kind of reasoning can be quite deceptive. Using a post-hoc analysis (i.e. after the fact reasoning) will usually look good, since you notice the successes and ignore the failures.

    • Another issue is that using systems that include a lot of variables can reduce the strength of the signal you need to make good bets, via a lot of random non-useful information being present.

    • Was it a problem with the system(s), or a problem with using it on that particular day? The system was trained on Saturday cards, which tend to have higher-priced races and more mature horses than Mondays. Maybe it just didn’t generalize to Monday cards? Or perhaps it was just one of those test runs of a stochastic system that randomly underperformed during that particular trial.

    • Having said all that, I haven’t really had the time to write the programming necessary to run some long-term tests, so I haven’t given up on the new systems, just put them on the shelf until later.

    • On a completely different subject, I missed the presence of other horse-players. A good part of the enjoyment of the races is people-watching and idle chit-chat. A Monday race-day misses out on that, compared to Saturday. Damon Runyon would have had a lot less to write about, had his horse-playing been confined to these quiet days (if you like horses, you must read Damon Runyon’s stuff, easy to get on Amazon).This visit was on a Monday, as rainfall on Saturday had created difficult driving conditions. Monday tends to be a very slow day for many activities and it was the same for horse-races on this day. That meant the horse-racing section was nearly empty, as was the pub area.

       

       --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here are some books you might like: 

  

Hiking the Wild North Shore of Lake

Superior


The north shore of Lake Superior is wild and beautiful. It is also quite sparsely populated, so a hiking trip (or other adventure) will truly give you chance to get away from it all, and back to nature in its full glory.

Lake Superior is big – it is the largest of the North American Great Lakes, and one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world. One could spend years exploring the area, and still have barely touched the possibilities.

This account focuses on a multi-day backpacking trip in Pukaskwa National Park, some light canoeing in White Lake Provincial Park, and some day-hiking in the Thunder Bay area.

What follows is a journal of some of the highlights of a trip to Northern Ontario in the summer of 1998. That gives the trip a bit of a historical flavor, but things don’t change very quickly in the wild country of the true north, so it will also give the reader a good idea of what to expect during their own exploration of the north shore.

You can purchase it for 99 cents U.S., equivalent price in other currencies.  Alternatively, keep your eyes open for a free promotions, which occur periodically. Or, get it with Kindle Unlimited.

U.S.:  https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07F9TV4C8
U.K.:  https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07F9TV4C8 
Germany:  https://www.amazon.de/dp/B07F9TV4C8

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B07F9TV4C8

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B074LZDQ9F

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B074LZDQ9F

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B074LZDQ9F

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B074LZDQ9F

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B074LZDQ9F
Japan:
https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B07F9TV4C8  
Canada:
https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B07F9TV4C8
Australia:  
https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B07F9TV4C8
India:  
https://www.amazon.in/dp/B07F9TV4C8

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 And here’s an account of some road trips in south-western Alberta:

A Selection of Back-Road Trips Around

 Southwest Alberta


There are two main aspects to a road trip: the journey and the destination. Sometimes the trip is all about the journey, sometimes it’s all about the destination. Usually it is a little of both.

This collection of back-roads journeys feature a little bit of both of these aspects. Some accounts are more about the ‘journey’, such as a road trip on scenic Highway 22. Others are more about the ‘destination’, such as the show-jumping at Spruce Meadows. I hope you will enjoy reading some of these accounts and maybe give them a spin for yourself.

Southwest 1 – A Road Trip on Scenic Highway 22

Southwest 2 – The Equestrian Competitions at Spruce Meadows (Calgary)

Southwest 3 – The Bar U Ranch, south of Long View

Southwest 4 – Kananaskis Country

Southwest 5 – Blackfoot Crossing

Southwest 6 – Back-roads, from the Prairies to the Foothills: Brazeau Dam Trip

Southwest 7 – A Back-roads Trip to Hinton and the Forestry Trunk Roads

The reader may wonder “what about the Ice-fields Parkway?” or “where is a visit to Banff?” I would answer, that these famous destinations are covered very nicely by other books. This account is meant to focus on some less travelled areas, thus the “back-roads” descriptor.

I should note that the other three quadrants of Alberta also have a lot of interesting back-roads journeys, but those are material for some other books which will be published in due time.

Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon U.K: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon CA: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0DCMJP47G

Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0DCMJP47G



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A Dark Horse


In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil.  Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5


Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

Every gambler is bound to run out of luck eventually, right?

By far my favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.

It would have been helpful to have more character development in this short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well done.

I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of empathy for folks in his position.

A Dark Horse – A Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season and beyond.



Thursday, 9 July 2026

Giving up on Windows 11, Off to Linux Mint, Update, July 10, 2026 (windows patch):

  

Giving up on Windows 11, Off to Linux Mint, Update

Update, July 10, 2026:

According to a Youtube video that I watched recently, Microsoft has finally admitted the problem that was causing Windows to eat up disc space on computers. According to this source, the problem was a software bug in a module that was not accessible to the user and was meant to help with certain accessories to the system (keyboard, speakers, camera, etc). Instead, it gobbled up hard drive space. Supposedly, a fix to this is to be unrolled on “Patch Tuesday” (July 14), though users can update earlier on their own. I suspect, however, that new bugs will crop up after this one is fixed.\

Windows update KB5095093 fixes a sometimes severe error in Windows 11 that can consume a lot of storage space. https://www.heise.de/en/news/Windows-update-fixes-memory-leak-11356648.html

As for Linux, I have had very few problems. It froze once and needed a reboot. There is some cursor lag when using Libre Office Calc, which is annoying, but you get used to it. That’s all I can think of, offhand, in over a month of intensive use (word processing, spreadsheet work, R programming, web browsing, image work, etc.).

I can’t see going back to Windows, though I will test it on the computer that still has a Windows 11 OS on it, out of curiosity.

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I had set up one of my desktop computers with Linux Mint, some time earlier, as a refuge from the continuing malefactions of Windows 11 and Microsoft. However, I had continued on with Windows, more or less from inertia. But, it was proving to be crash-prone as well as requiring endless upgrades, many of which took an exceedingly long time, and it also tended to drop blue-tooth drivers and the like with wild abandon.

But recently, Windows 11 had managed to scoop up all of my hard drive disk space, so that I couldn’t even save a relatively small spreadsheet. Then it crashed. So, that was it for Windows 11, as far as I was concerned. Enough was enough.

It took a few hours, but I switched computers, moving the Linux machine into my home office and relegated the Windows machine to a back room, to keep a small fridge and freezer company. Very appropriate, I thought since Windows caused that computer to freeze on more than one occasion.

Since then, I have been very happy with Linux. I still use most of the same programs, just the Linux version of them. I even managed to set up R for Linux, which I had been informed was a bit tricky. But it was pretty easy. I no longer have to go through constant “upgrades” to Windows. I no longer have to deal with drivers that mysteriously disappear when these upgrades are run. And I no longer have to put up with nagging from Windows. So far, life is good.

But this made me think about the sad state of computing. There are some notes on this below.

Windows 11 and the Failure of Computing in General

  • Example: Immediately after rebooting, by C drive is back to 29.4 GB.

  • Before rebooting, it had fallen to 300 MB, so about 99% of that disc space was being used by Windows and/or other processes.

Poor memory management (RAM or disc) is a signal of poor programming, always has been, always will be.

So, why has this become so bad?

  • The most significant aspect has come about in the past few months, at least for myself.

  • However, there are many people complaining of this Windows memory hog problem. Complaints go back further in time than my situation, but it seems to begin in mid-winter to late winter, 2025-26.

  • Is it general or only a smaller subset of users? (mind you, a fairly big subset, from what one can tell via searching comments on the web).

  • Is it related to DEI? (i.e. programming staff is just not being hired on merit, to the extent that was the case previously.

  • Is it related to AI? (Microsoft and other companies are devoting preponderant resources to this, therefore shorting other businesses (especially core businesses like their OS).

  • Is it related to AI vibe-coding and related slippage in coding skills? (the recency of the problem would suggest this is no small part of the phenomenon).

  • Is it related to prioritizing the data centre part of the business? Incentivizing users to move to the cloud, to deal with a disc-memory hog OS means more cloud business and more monetary subscriptions to Microsoft, for space on One-Drive and the like.

  • Is it a matter of the internet and related globalization issues, that have made maintaining complex systems like OS nearly impossible at this global scale. It is asymptotically approaching failure, as the complications have an exponential growth, faster than the solutions can be devised and implemented. Might this be a general phenomenon that is/will show up in many domains in the near future.

  • AI was supposed to be the rescue-mode, but it appears that it may be more problem than solution.

These are just a few possibilities that come to mind. Presumably, time will tell how it all shakes out.

Tuesday, 23 June 2026

Giving up on Windows 11, in Favor of Linux Mint

  

Giving up on Windows 11, in Favor of Linux Mint

I had set up one of my desktop computers with Linux Mint, some time earlier, as a refuge from the continuing malefaction of Windows 11 and Microsoft. However, I had continued on with Windows, more or less from inertia. But, it was proving to be crash-prone as well as requiring endless upgrades, many of which took an exceedingly long time, and it also tended to drop blue-tooth drivers and the like with wild abandon.

But recently, Windows 11 had managed to scoop up all of my hard drive disk space, so that I couldn’t even save a relatively small spreadsheet. Then it crashed. So, that was it for Windows 11, as far as I was concerned. Enough was enough.

It took a few hours, but I switched computers, moving the Linux machine into my home office and relegated the Windows machine to a back room, to keep a small fridge and freezer company. Very appropriate, I thought since Windows caused that computer to freeze on more than one occasion.

Since then, I have been very happy with Linux. I still use most of the same programs, just the Linux version of them. I even managed to set up R for Linux, which I had been informed was a bit tricky. But it was pretty easy. I no longer have to go through constant “upgrades” to Windows. I no longer have to deal with drivers that mysteriously disappear when these upgrades are run. And I no longer have to put up with nagging from Windows. So far, life is good.

But this made me think about the sad state of computing. There are some notes on this below.

Windows 11 and the Failure of Computing in General

  • Example: Immediately after rebooting, by C drive is back to 29.4 GB.

  • Before rebooting, it had fallen to 300 MB, so about 99% of that disc space was being used by Windows and/or other processes.

Poor memory management (RAM or disc) is a signal of poor programming, always has been, always will be.

So, why has this become so bad recently?

  • The most significant aspect has come about in the past few months, at least for myself.

  • However, there are many people complaining of this Windows memory hog problem. Complaints go back further in time than my situation, but it seems to begin in mid-winter to late winter, 2025-26.

  • Is it general or only a smaller subset of users? (mind you, a fairly big subset, from what one can tell via searching comments on the web).

  • Is it related to DEI? (i.e. programming staff is just not being hired on merit, to the extent that was the case previously.

  • Is it related to AI? (Microsoft and other companies are devoting preponderant resources to this, therefore shorting other businesses (especially core businesses like their OS).

  • Is it related to AI vibe-coding and related slippage in coding skills? (the recency of the problem would suggest this is no small part of the phenomenon).

  • Is it related to prioritizing the data-center part of the business? Incentivizing users to move to the cloud, to deal with a disc-memory hog OS means more cloud business and more monetary subscriptions to Microsoft, for space on One-Drive and the like.

  • Is it a matter of the internet and related globalization issues, that have made maintaining complex systems like OS nearly impossible at this global scale. It is asymptotically approaching failure, as the complications have an exponential growth, faster than the solutions can be devised and implemented. Might this be a general phenomenon that is/will show up in many domains in the near future.

  • AI was supposed to be the rescue-mode, but it appears that it may be more problem than solution.

These are just a few possibilities that come to mind. Presumably, time will tell how it all shakes out.

Wednesday, 3 June 2026

does AI generated code suffer from the heartbreak of psoriasis

 does AI generated code suffer from the heartbreak of psoriasis?

While fooling around and experimenting with Gemini recently, I asked it the above question.  Below is its response.

By turns, I found it surprising, funny, and kind of sad.  It almost seemed like a plea for understanding from the LLM.  Having studied the underlying algorithms fairly intensely, I still believe that this is just a high-dimensional autocomplete program with a lot of post-training augmentation.  Nonetheless, its short-term resemblance to a human complaining about a health problem is quite fascinating.  I suppose a great deal of human communication is similar to autocomplete - i.e. we are in a version of autopilot quite a bit of the time.

I think its main points are valid, in terms of vibe-coding and AI generated code.  Organizations that lean on vibe-coding are probably storing up a lot of heartbreak in their futures.

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Yes, AI-generated code suffers significantly from its own version of the "heartbreak of psoriasis"—an  irritating, persistent, and "scaly" accumulation of bugs and technical debt that can make it painful to maintain and deploy. [1]

While AI tools speed up development, they often introduce 1.7 times as many bugs as human developers. [1]

Here is how AI-generated code reflects this analogy:

  • Scabs and Scaly Patches (Technical Debt): The code often looks clean on the surface but is packed with "cruft"—unnecessary, disorganized, or redundant code that behaves like flaky, inflamed skin on a project.

  • Persistent Itch (Silent Logic Errors): A massive 60% of faults in AI code are "silent logic failures," which pass tests but fail in production. This causes ongoing, hard-to-diagnose irritation rather than a simple, easy-to-fix crash.

  • Invisible Under-layers (Security Flaws): Up to 45% of AI-generated code contains security vulnerabilities. These hidden issues are deep-rooted, like psoriasis plaques that are not visible until they erupt as a breach.

  • Chronic Condition (Lack of Understanding): Because AI doesn't truly understand context, it can produce code that looks good in isolation but acts like a "scar" when trying to integrate with existing, healthy code. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

The Bottom Line: Just as with "the heartbreak of psoriasis," you cannot simply ignore AI-generated code. It requires intense, consistent human oversight ("treatment") to stop the accumulation of errors from taking over the codebase. [1]

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Wednesday, 27 May 2026

Race Track Diary, Entry Number 27 – Billy Budd’s (March 21, 2026)

 

Race Track Diary, Entry Number

 Twenty-Seven

27 – Billy Budd’s (March 21, 2026)

Introduction

This blog and some following blogs are sections from an informal diary of “visits to the race-track” at a particular time and place, by a person who has followed the races with varying levels of participation over a long period. These relate primarily to some visits to the track and/or off-track betting venues in the 2025 period and onward. They contain observations about the activity, both specific and general. Although these remarks are personal, they also reflect general cultural and historical trends, as they have impacted horse-racing, wagering and culture in general.

The setting is Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (population of about one million plus). However, I imagine that the observations would apply to many places in the world, as they are a reflection of how changing trends in technology, globalization and culture in general have affected this ancient and honourable activity of horse-racing.

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

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  • 27 – Billy Budd’s (Mar 28, 2026)

    • This was another Saturday visit to Budd’s, to play the horses and relax (assuming that those aren’t contradictory goals). It was a fairly good crowd, which was no doubt augmented by people watching a rather important afternoon hockey game. If fact, it was so important that it actually took some screen real estate away from the horses!

    • The local team, the Oilers, were team playing a divisional rival, the Anaheim Ducks. It would play an important part in determining who would be in the playoffs and who would have home ice.

    • It would not be long before the Stanley Cup playoffs commenced. Around here, that means that spring has really arrived. In a good year, it extends to past the summer solstice, which really kind of weird, considering that hockey is a winter sport.

    • Anyway, we got to Budd’s in time to follow the entire thoroughbred card at Santa Anita, then the harnies at Woodbine/Mohawk. For me, this was to bring me with the dilemma of the Gambler’s Fallacy versus Regression to the Mean. But more of that later.

    • First, here is a brief run-down of the Santa Anita races:

      • I was a bit tardy in betting the first race, so I was shut-out, though I had worked out my numbers. The numbers had a clear preference for the #5 horse, who led the race for much of the way, but faded in the end to come in third. It was a short field, so there wasn’t any show betting. At any rate, a theoretical but not actual loss.

      • The second race was also a very short field, only five horses. I bet the #2 horse, which came in fourth and seemed to be labouring at the end. This was a real loss, though I was a long way from betting the farm.

      • Another short field in the third race, five horses. My system liked the #2 horse, but it also came in third. This time there was a show pool – I don’t know why they didn’t have show betting in the first two races, but they did on this race. Perhaps it depends on how the early money comes in? If it seems likely that a particular bet could end up dipping into the minus pool, the track may decide to ‘no-go’ that bet? It was a moot point since I had a win ticket and lost.

      • The fourth race carried on the pattern, with my preferred horse (#3) leading until the stretch, then fading to finish third. I had bet win, so it was another loss.

      • For the fifth race, my system once more liked a #2 horse. I bet it to win and it came in next to last. This was beginning to be quite tiresome.

      • In the sixth, my system liked the #3 horse, which promptly came in next to last. That was five straight losses, six if you included the first race.

      • The seventh race was the same. My horse (#8) had superior numbers but it lost, coming in sixth in an eight horse field. Well, at least it did better than next to last!

      • The eighth race was a Maiden Claiming race, with most of the horses having little or no racing history. I bet one of them anyway (#8), which did have a bit of history. It did a bit better than the preceding races, coming in fourth. But still a loss.

      • The ninth race was to be the last race at Santa Anita. After a whole card of losses, I was tempted to give it up and focus on the bucket-pullers. But I thought, it would be a mistake to pass on the race, as it would drive me nuts if my preferred horse won (#6).

        • Thus, I decided to bet it. It required dipping into my cash to buy a fresh betting voucher. I reflected that I hadn’t done that in a long time, so things weren’t really so bad. In fact, I thought, with this new betting voucher, I can step up the action and win it all back. After all, after 8 straight losses, I must be due! This I did, stepping up my bet by a factor of five.

        • But as I watched the race, it looked as if my horse had run at the back of the field for another loss, this time a more expensive loss. I was proceeding to mentally kick myself for giving in to the Gambler’s Fallacy, when the fellow next to me said that the #6 took the race.

        • Wait a minute, I thought, I bet the #6. And sure enough, I had inverted the colours of the #2 and #6 in my mind, mistaking the black on white numbering on the #2 for the yellow on black numbering of the #6.

        • So I really was due, I thought. My horse had won, and had won at a reasonably good price. That, along with my stepped-up bet recovered my losses and then some.

        • I was feeling pretty good: the Gambler’s Fallacy is one hell of a drug. My win also meant that I could loosen up and have a beer, under my self-imposed policy of no alcohol before a win.

    • On to the bucket-pullers of Woodbine.

    • I had noted a few profitable angles with the selection of races that I had studied. The simplest one involved betting 10-1 long-shots, which had been coming in at about 6% win rate with high enough prices to be in the black. So, I thought that I would give that a try, using small bets to experiment.

    • In addition, the previous day’s races had been almost exclusively short-priced favorites, so the long-shots should be ‘due’. It is not the Gambler’s Fallacy, I decided, but rather the well-known phenomenon of Regression to the Mean. Or so I convinced myself.

      • The first race had two 10-1 odds horses. Both finished out of the money.

      • The second had one 10-1 horse, the #6. That was also a favorable post, so I bet it with the greatest optimism. It came in dead last. An oddity of the race was that the place and show tickets were refunded and those bets were not paid out. We couldn’t figure out why that happened. If they allowed the bets, shouldn’t they have to pay out? It doesn’t seem right that they can just say ‘here’s your money back, no hard feelings, eh’.

      • The third race had two plays, the #5 and #6. The 6 did go off at slightly better than 10-1 odds (10.9 actually) and did nearly win, coming in second by a neck. So, that was a near-run thing. For place it paid over $8 on a $2 bet. However, I bet win and as it is said, close only counts in horse-shoes and hand-grenades (unless you bet place, then it counts).

      • The fourth race had two plays, both of which came in out-of-the-money (7th and 8th, in a ten horse field.

      • The fifth race had 2 plays, both of which finished well back. However, I had been preoccupied by my Santa Anita win at that time, so I actually missed out on betting. So, a theoretical loss, though not an actual loss.

      • The sixth also had 2 plays; they also finished well back. So, two more losses.

      • The seventh race followed the pattern; two plays which finished well out-of-the-money.

      • Same with the eighth race, though they managed to come in fifth and sixth, so a bit of improvement.

      • Ninth race – two plays, two losses, though one managed a fourth place finish.

      • Then came the tenth race, an all-time heart breaker. There were two 10-1 horses, one that finished second and the other that finished fourth. My #7 horse lost by the tiniest nose of a nose, with 31-1 odds to win (it paid $18.60 to place). There was a very long photo-finish, as well as an inquiry. It was very close, but the photo seemed dispositive. It was never clear what the inquiry was about. It makes one think of skullduggery. So close, so close...

      • The eleventh race had 3 plays, which came in 7-8-9 in a 9 horse field.

      • The twelfth race had 2 plays, one of which came in for show.

      • The thirteenth had 1 play, which came in sixth.

    • So, in summary, there were no profitable plays with this system, though there were two high-priced horses (11-1 and 31) that got nipped out for second place. Was it a disappointment? Yes and no. Which is to say, it felt like it should have worked but it didn’t. So it goes.

    • Craig and I also had a few Pick-3 and triactor bets that nearly came in, but didn’t quite get there.

    • So much for betting. Here are a few general observations of the day.

      • The crowd was of mixed age and sex, though skewing to older and male. That said, there were quite a few females in attendance, some of whom were fairly chatty. Among them was a multi-generational family group sitting behind us, that was having a pleasant lunch and mostly ignoring the horse races. There were a few other husband and wife teams as well, or at least that was what I assumed they were. There is nothing is more romantic in Canada, than hockey and horse races.

      • Of course as the day went on, the crowd thinned out to be mostly geezers (except me and Craig, naturally). :)

      • There was a fairly knowledgeable and talkative fellow who is something of a regular. He chatted for quite a while with the waitress that operates the view-screens. She explained to him that there is a projection screen that comes down and a very high-quality projector. Sometimes there are meetings there, I suppose companies doing presentations for staff and so forth. Craig and I had wondered about the projection screen, whether it still worked.

      • These two seemed rather political, maybe one was a retired teacher. At least one of them seemed to be quite accepting of the notion of Alberta separation, which surprised me.

      • At one point there was quite a commotion of sound, hockey cheering, race cheering and VLT simulated crowd signs. I was idly wondering which would be loudest, when the Oilers scored their go-ahead goal in the third period and resolved the issue. Hockey won.

      • A youngish couple was playing the VLTs down a ways from the racing section. The woman began giving her boyfriend the gears over something, in French. She spoke way too fast for my school French to understand, but anyone could understand the emotion behind it – very angry over something! Or perhaps it was over the VLT. Maybe she played it for a long time, then left and the fellow took over and won. People often get enraged over that, thinking that the second person is taking a win that is rightfully their’s (more Gambler’s Fallacy, as the VLT is not programmed that way – is based on a random number generator that doesn’t have a memory of past numbers).

      • The Chinese fellow sitting next to me did some ‘persuading’ of his horses, but in a rather subdued way – ‘come on 4, come on 4’. Later, ‘come on #1’; it did win, good for him.

      • We got to talking later, mostly of the ‘look at this, I had every horse but one in that race’ (e.g. the superfecta) variety. I reciprocated, with some sob-stories about my near misses on 11-1 and 31-1 win tickets at the bucket pullers.

      • He was also bothered by the fact that his horse was bumped in one race, which it might well have won otherwise (he was alive to a $300 payday on a $1 ticket). We watched the replay several times – I had to agree with him, it was a clear bump. Sometimes you wonder about judges’ calls (and referees in hockey).

      • He was watching the card at Oaklawn, in Kentucky. He has a keen interest in the Kentucky Derby and one of the horses at Oaklawn was likely to be in the Derby. He told me that it will be a good bet, based on its time in today’s race. The name of the horse was Renegade. He had plenty of notations in a notebook, obviously a trip handicapper. He was suitably impressed by the fact that I kept notes too, though for me it was largely for working out my numbers and recording my observations for this Horse-racing Diary.

      • We reminisced a bit about the old Northlands track. He wondered about the new Century Mile track at the airport.

        • Had I been there?

        • Yes, but not really in the track proper, just the indoor betting part. But, this summer for sure.

And that was about it for this visit to play the horse-races.

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Note: I am reproducing a blog that I did on the subject of the Gamblers Fallacy and Regression to the Mean, below:

The Gambler’s Fallacy vs Regression to the Mean - Can a Bet be "Due to Win"

In statistics, betting, and life in general, we are often faced with the dilemma of what seem to be unusual streaks of bad or good luck. When these occur, it is natural to wonder when the streak will end, whether it will be soon or whether the wait will be interminable. It is natual to wonder, "Am I due for a change in luck?" From there, it is an easy transition to decide "I must be due".

Here is a story. This happened to me recently while betting the thoroughbreds at Santa Anita racetrack. To be precise, it was the horses that were at that California racetrack. I was at a local off-track racing venue of my hometown. But the illusion of ‘being there’ can be strong, especially when caught in the moment of a lucky or unlucky streak.

In my case it was the latter. I had bet 7 straight races, using a handicapping method that had worked surprisingly well during the previous two dozen forays to the track. It involved some fairly rigorous mathematical techniques and was well-grounded in the realities of horse-racing (a speed handicapping method of my own invention). In all 7 races my horse had lost, with only a couple even being vaguely close. This was highly unusual, given the method’s previous success rate.

With the final race on deck, I had to dip into some cash reserves, which I hadn’t had to do for quite some time, as I had been playing with previous winnings up until then. I was tempted to skip the final race, but then I decided against it. You might just as well finish the job, I thought. I walked up to the betting machine to purchase a win ticket for the final race, with the grim forboding of a person stuck in a losing streak.

Then the thought occurred to me – "I must be due, there is no way this losing streak can continue. It seems so obvious. Plus, I have just bought a fresh betting voucher and have more than adequate financial resources anyway. So, why not step up the bet and win it all back?"

This, I proceeded to do.

The race was confusing. The colours that the horses were wearing were difficult to make out in the stretch drive. In fact, I made the notation in a small notebook: "Lost. Also ran. Back of field." So, it looked like I wasn’t due, after all.

But then the fellow next to me said "It looks like the 6 won."

"What’s that?" I thought. "That can’t be – I bet on the 6!"

But he was right. I had mistaken the colours of the 2 horse and the 6 horse. So I was due! Not only that, I had stepped up my bet by enough to cover all my previous losses, with some to spare.

So, was I due or was I not due? Or does that even make sense?

The Gambler’s Fallacy

In an introductory statistics course, you are likely to be introduced to the notion of the gambler’s fallacy. An example of this is coin flipping. If you flip a coin a fairly large number of times, and heads comes up more often than tails, it seems intuitively obvious that you can safely bet on tails and win the game (at least until things equal out).

Unfortunately, that is not a good strategy, as the coin doesn’t have a memory – it doesn’t know that tails are due. In the long run, the percentage of heads vs tails will tend to 50:50, but that can take a long time. Indeed, the preponderance of heads can continue to grow in raw numbers, even as the percentage of heads drops and approaches 50%. This does seem rather counter-intuitive, but it can be proved mathematically via the use of something called the mean value theorem.

Regression to the Mean

This is a different but related concept. Basically, it says that in some complex process (more complicated than coin-flipping), if a participant begins to perform much better (or worse) than its long-term average, the participant will regress back towards that average (fairly soon). So, for example, a hockey player on a heater (e.g. scoring streak) will likely go back to his long-term scoring, given enough time. Same for a horse (or some category of horse) at the race track. It is also works in genetics, where offspring tend to revert back to their ancestors in some characteristic, short of selective breeding.

How is this different from coin-tossing. I would venture to say that it is different because these processes do have a memory. Hockey players who go on a heater will generally be having some puck-luck, which can create as a high confidence level, at least temporarily. Opponents will become aware of the player’s scoring streak and actively try to subvert it (that’s what the game is all about). He will be shadowed by the opposing team’s best checker. He may be singled out for some rough play. The player’s confidence may then drop, as will his performance.

Similarly for horse-races. The horse has a memory, though it is difficult to say how much that affects a horse. However, trainers and jockeys definitely have memories that will affect the process. A hot horse may get better treatment from trainers and jockeys, thus helping its win streak. On the other hand, it may be run too often and get physically worn out. Its betting odds will drop, which may motivate trainers and jockeys to darken its form, so as to improve its odds. Horses running against it will have better odds, which may ensure that jockeys and trainers go to extra lengths to beat the hot horse.

So, basically, there are multiple participants in these types of complex games, all with their own goals and strategies (thousands to millions in the stock market). The combination of these actor’s strategies will tend to cancel each other out, thus tending to bring all the opponents back to long-term performance metrics.

Conclusion

So, which phenomenon prevails? The Gambler’s Fallacy (don’t base actions on the notion of something being ‘due’) or Regression to the Mean (you probably can base actions on something being due).

I don’t really know. I am conflicted. But I think it is probably a reasonable strategy for complex games (sports, stock markets, predictive markets) but not for relatively simple games.

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And here are a couple of short books you might like.

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil.  Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5


Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

Every gambler is bound to run out of luck eventually, right?

By far my favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.

It would have been helpful to have more character development in this short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well done.

I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of empathy for folks in his position.

A Dark Horse – A Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season and beyond.

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And here is an account of a summer job on the railroad, during my undergraduate years.

One Summer Working on the Railroad

What follows is anaccount of a few weeks one long-ago summer, when I was 19 and was working for the Canadian National Railway (CNR) on a railroad construction gang, in the wilds of north-central British Columbia, Canada.

The journal is in the form of a letter, that was never sent. Decades later, I think it has an interesting historical resonance. At times I come off like a callow youth – I plead guilty as charged. I swore a lot more in those days than I do now, but in places the writing is surprisingly good, at least in my humble opinion. And the story has a compelling narrative arc.

There were a lot of interesting and dramatic events that occurred – a number of industrial accidents being the most serious. There were also some colorful characters on the crew, which resulted in some dramatic and at times amusing conflicts and altercations. I perhaps flatter myself by including myself in that number. Or perhaps I condemn myself – I’m not sure.

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

The memoir/journal is about 9,000 words, a length that can usually be read in an hour or so. It is priced at 99 cents U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and is free on Kindle Unlimited. Periodically, it will be offered as a free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0CN661P8Z