Excess
Deaths in Canada - (Alberta & B.C., 2020)
Many countries around the world (arguably in fact,
most Western countries) have reported an unexpected and alarming
number of excess deaths, when comparing counts of deaths in 2022 to
the pre-Covid-19 totals. Excess deaths were expected during the
height of the pandemic, but the SARS-2 virus had mutated to a milder
form by late 2021, so it was expected that would have resulted in a
significant drop total deaths, compared to 2020 and 2021.
Deaths should have fallen to pre-Covid levels; in
fact there was the possibility that deaths would have been lower than
pre-Covid. That’s because Covid-19 took a lot of people who were
elderly and/or had other serious diseases, so that should have
produced a “culling” effect, whereby some people died a year or
two earlier than they might have otherwise. But that didn’t
happen.
Canada has been slow to report deaths for 2022, so
there is still no official word on how this has turned out for the
Canadian population. However, the two most westerly provinces
(British Columbia and Alberta), which account for about 25%-30% of
the population have reported counts for deaths, up to early November
2022. So, I have used that data to explore the Canadian experience.
There seems to be no good reason for the results for the country
overall to be much different than the results for these two
provinces.
The evidence, shown below, indicates that deaths
did remain high, nearly as high in October-November 2022 as they were
in the same period of 2021. Similarly to many other countries, the
situation is most pronounced in the younger age groups and more-so
among males than females.
Covid-19 Deaths
in Alberta, October-November 2015-2022
To set the stage for the excess deaths analysis, a
brief look at the Covid deaths will prove useful. Alberta data will
be used for this, as it is quite complete and accessible.
The excess deaths data corresponds to the 5 week
period between early October and early to mid November, for each of
the years between 2015 and 2022. Therefore, we will look
specifically at those periods, to see how the Covid pandemic was
progressing in Alberta.
The period from 2015 to 2019 can be thought of as
the normal, non-Covid period, as to the best of anyone’s knowledge,
the pandemic didn’t begin until some time after November 2019. The
years 2020 and 2021 were the height of the pandemic, while 2022 saw
the virus mutate into a much less dangerous form.
The data for Alberta demonstrates these trends in
Covid-19. During 2020 this period saw steeply rising numbers of
deaths per day (from about 2 to 10, 112 in all), while in 2021 deaths
were high but falling (about 20 down to about 5, 330 in total), and
in 2022 were mostly steady at about 5 per day (194 in total).
Admissions to the ICU in that province show
similar trends; low but trending upward in Oct-Nov 2020, very high in
Oct-Nov 2021 and relatively low in Oct-Nov 2022.
Overall Deaths
in Alberta/B.C., October-November 2015-2022
Total Deaths (Covid-19 and All Others) are shown for the two
provinces, in the table and graph below. In both cases, deaths
increase noticeably after 2019, peaking in 2021, then falling
somewhat in 2022.
This is somewhat at odds with the graphs for
Covid Deaths and ICU admits in Alberta, in so far as the high death
counts in 2022 don’t correspond very well with the relatively low
Covid figures for that year. In other words, there appear to be
excess deaths in the 2022, over and above what could be attributed to
the Covid pandemic directly.
Looking at Alberta deaths separately (from the
Alberta government Covid information website), we can determine how
many Covid-19 deaths there were during these periods , and thus how
many non-Covid deaths there were as well.
The graph and table shows that Covid-19 deaths did
decline from 2021 to 2022, though non-Covid deaths actually increased
somewhat during that period. But the main thing that the graph
shows, is that non-Covid deaths are up substantially from the
2015-2019 totals (by about 400 deaths). Bear in mind that this data
is just for the Oct-Nov 5 week period in each year; total deaths are
likely to be 10 times that number.
It could be argued that some of the non-Covid
deaths in the 2020-2022 period were simply a continuation of an
increasing trend during the 2015-2019 period. To account for this,
extrapolations from the 2015-2019 trend were done, as shown in the
attached table and graph.
Two
extrapolations are shown; a linear trend and a logarithmic trend.
The latter has a higher R-Square and is more visually intuitive.
Also, during this period both international and interprovincial
migrations were severely curtailed due to Covid-related policies
(e.g. lock-downs), so the continuation of a linear trend seems less
likely than a logarithmic trend.
This then gives the following as an estimate of
non-Covid excess deaths in Alberta during the Oct-Nov 5-week periods
in the years 2020, 2021, and 2022.
If we then annualize those numbers, by multiplying
by 10, we get about 3000 excess deaths for Alberta in 2022. Assuming
that these assumptions could be generalized to all of Canada, that
would mean about 30,000 deaths for the country in total.
In a future blog, a breakdown of age and gender
excess deaths will be presented. As has been found in most
jurisdictions around the world, the excess deaths phenomenon is most
keenly felt in the younger age groups.
Sources and
Related Blogs:
Statistics Canada: https://doi.org/10.25318/1310076801-eng
Alberta Covid Stats:
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Some earlier Covid-19 blogs:
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2022/10/monkeypox-vs-covid-dna-vs-rna-first-168.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2022/05/covid-19-comparing-direct-case-measures.html
https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/8998037621231280699/6639498264259397039
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-positive-results-from.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-how-successfully-are.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/12/covid-19-vaccines-comparison-of.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/09/covid-19-continues-to-travel-around.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/has-covid-19-become-less-deadly.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/july-2020-update-covid-19-death-rates.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/05/covid-19-death-rates-correlate-highly.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-impact-on-employment-no-impact.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-there-model-that-can-predict-when-to.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/03/estimating-fatality-rate-of-coronavirus.html
=====================================================
And, here’s something that’s a bit more fun than excess deaths
and worldwide virus pandemics.
A Drive Across Newfoundland
U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07NMR9WM8
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Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B07NMR9WM8
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India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B07NMR9WM8
Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is
both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of
stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known
for steep cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist
too). The inland areas are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by
forests, rivers, rock formations, and abundant wildlife. The province
also features some of the Earth’s most remarkable geology, notably
The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the Earth’s interior have
been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an almost
alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered
regions of the planet.
The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban
areas, with a population that maintains many old traditions and
cultural aspects of the British Isles. That’s true of the rest of
the province, as well, where the people are friendly and inclined to
chat amiably with visitors. Plus, they talk with amusing accents and
party hard, so what’s not to like?
This account focusses
on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the
southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only
known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike
visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological
feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very
interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these
other-worldly landscapes.
A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail: A Biking
Journal Kindle Edition
by Dale
Olausen (Author), Helena
Puumala (Editor)
The Kettle Valley Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic
biking and hiking trails in Canada. It covers a good stretch of the
south-central interior of British Columbia, about 600 kilometers of
scenic countryside. British Columbia is one of the most beautiful
areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country, ideal for those
who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in the
great outdoors.
The trail passes through a great variety
of geographical and geological regions, from mountains to valleys,
along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry near-desert condition
grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned by a
combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes
through wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite
low, in populated valleys, alongside spectacular water features such
as beautiful Lake Okanagan, an area that is home to hundreds of
vineyards, as well as other civilized comforts.
The trail
is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits
and adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness.
The views are spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people
are friendly. What more could one ask for?
What follows is
a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail in
the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours
reading), and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are
also sections containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora
and fauna, and associated information.
After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether
the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it
will be an experience you will never forget.
Amazon U.S.:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Amazon U.K.:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01GBG8JE0
On the Road with Bronco Billy
Spring is on us now, and that brings on thoughts of ROAD TRIP.
Sure, it is still a bit early, but you can still start making plans
for your next road trip with help of “On the Road with Bronco
Billy”. Sit back and go on a ten day trucking trip in a big rig,
through western North America, from Alberta to Texas, and back again.
Explore the countryside, learn some trucking lingo, and observe the
shifting cultural norms across this great continent. Then, come
spring, try it out for yourself.
Amazon U.S.:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon U.K.:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon Canada: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
