Covid-19 Death Rates Correlate Highly with a Country’s Level of Globalization

Covid-19 Death Rates Correlate Highly with a Country’s Level of Globalization

It has often been stated that the Covid-19 pandemic is a “Disease of Globalization”.  But, is there good evidence of that, besides anecdotes?

Well, cutting to the chase, I would say that there does seem to be some pretty good evidence for that claim.  At least in this phase of the pandemic, countries that score higher on various measures of globalization also score higher on deaths per million population, as the graph below shows.  The relationship is quite robust, with an R-square (a measure of how well the model describes the actual data) of nearly 0.60, which is generally considered quite high for social science/economics data. 

I should note that the relationship is an exponential one, as is indicated by the fact that the y-axis is given in a logarithmic scale rather than linear, and that the resulting regression line is linear.  Basically, that means that as globalization gets higher, the death rate from Covid-19 increases drastically.  It is a bit like compound interest – two bank accounts may grow at the same interest rate, but the bigger account will always have an advantage, which grows over time.  In this case, though, it is a disadvantage rather than an advantage.

As you can see, many of the key western countries have high scores on deaths per million population, but they also have high scores on the measure known as “Social Globalization Index” as computed by the reputable KOF Swiss Economic Institute.  Here is a brief explanation of these globalization measures, as stated on their website:

“Economic globalisation is composed of trade globalisation and financial globalisation, of which each gets a weight of 50 percent. Social globalisation consists of personal contact, information flows and cultural proximity where each contributes one third. Economic, social and political globalisation are aggregated to the Globalisation Index using again equal weights. The overall KOF Globalisation Index is calculated as the average of the de facto and the de jure Globalisation Index.”

It is worth noting that some counties are doing far worse than what would be expected based on the graph (they lie well above the regression line).  These include the economically advanced (high income) countries of U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy and Spain, all in the upper right part of the graph.  Canada is a bit high, but doing far better than the other members of this group.

Conversely, there are some advanced countries doing better than expected, such as Japan and Australia.

Among what are often called “middle income countries”, there is also a mixture of results.  Some, like Iran, Brazil and Algeria are quite far above the regression line (especially Iran).  China, the index country of the pandemic, is only slightly above the regression line, while Russia, Saudi Arabia and Chile are about where you would expect, based on their globalization levels.

Two relatively low income countries, Nigeria and South Africa, are below the line – so far, their death rates are below what would be expected purely from globalization factors.  It is interesting that South Africa’s globalization index is not far off of Brazil’s, while Nigeria is well below both of those countries.  Still, their Covid-19 death rates scale pretty well with those globalization rates.

There are, of course, cautions about any results of this sort.  Many people have doubts about the Covid-19 numbers from some countries, and they might also have doubts about the KOF globalization numbers.  That’s natural.  However, the fact that numbers taken from two very different sources support the theoretical hypothesis of a relationship between the disease spread and globalization is a pretty clear indication that these numbers probably are reasonably reflective of the underlying reality.  Otherwise, several hundred countries would have to fudge their numbers on two very different sets of measures, quite independently, an unlikely occurrence, at least to my way of thinking.

It may be that this relationship will only hold during the initial stages of the pandemic, where the most open countries would be hit first.  In other words, given time Nigeria might eventually catch up with Brazil and China might have another outbreak that brings them level with western nations.  Only time will tell.

Below is the graph showing the relationship between Economic Globalization and Covid-19 Death Rates.

As you can see, the R-square for this relationship is lower than it was for Social Globalization, about 0.35 vs about 0.60.  So, apparently the virus was being more effectively spread by social linkages than economic linkages, though of course those two will have a lot of overlap.  So, people flows are more important than money flows.

And below is the graph for Political Globalization vs Covid-19 Death Rates.  As you can see there is really no relationship in this case.  Apparently political linkages do not, in and of themselves, help the spread of the virus.  One is tempted to say that this shows that political statements about globalization are more slogan than reality in many cases.  Everyone talks a good game – for better or worse, not everybody follows through.  When it comes to pandemics, it may be better for countries to talk a better globalization game than they play.

And, for completeness, here is the graph for the combined measure.

Sources:

KOF Swiss Economic Institute: https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html

Worldometer Covid-19: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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A Drive Across Newfoundland

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Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known for steep cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist too). The inland areas are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by forests, rivers, rock formations, and abundant wildlife. The province also features some of the Earth’s most remarkable geology, notably The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the Earth’s interior have been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an almost alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered regions of the planet.

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This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.

On the Road with Bronco Billy

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