Is there a model that can predict when to ease Covid-19 restrictions?

My response to a Quora question:

Is there a model that can predict when to ease Covid-19 restrictions?

Personally, I think a good model is to examine the graph of new cases per day. Ideally, you will see a rise, followed by a plateau, followed by a drop back to near zero. You can then do a forward projection to get an idea of when the county is likely to be “mostly free” of the contagion. Note that this is just simple excel modelling, but sometimes simple models are surprisingly useful and insightful.

Here is China and Italy, graphed that way (China is probably over at least the first phase of the outbreak, Italy is nearing that condition).

 

 

As you can see, the U.S. is still far from this point, so it is probably still too early for them to ease off (China is in blue, the U.S. in grey).

 

That said, the U.S. is such a big, politically open country that the epidemic there is likely to be a series of local epidemics, and therefore it is harder to have a really effective nation-wide control and lock-down. It may be impractical to maintain a lock-down for the amount of time required. China probably fared better, as they had an earlier start on the lock-down in their country and a relatively closed authoritarian state has much for scope for controlling travel within its own borders.

You can do this for any country, though obviously different norms in reporting will complicate the analysis. Still, I find it surprisingly useful.

And, here’s a more pleasant travel story than anticipating the worldwide journey of a virus.  Perhaps after lock-downs are over, you can visit this intriguing region.

A Drive Across Newfoundland

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07NMR9WM8

U.K.:  https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07NMR9WM8

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B07NMR9WM8

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B07NMR9WM8

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B07NMR9WM8

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B07NMR9WM8

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B07NMR9WM8

Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known for steep cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist too). The inland areas are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by forests, rivers, rock formations, and abundant wildlife. The province also features some of the Earth’s most remarkable geology, notably The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the Earth’s interior have been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an almost alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered regions of the planet.

The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban areas, with a population that maintains many old traditions and cultural aspects of the British Isles. That’s true of the rest of the province, as well, where the people are friendly and inclined to chat amiably with visitors. Plus, they talk with amusing accents and party hard, so what’s not to like?

This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.