Billy Budd’s (Dec 6, 2025)

Introduction

This blog and some following blogs are sections from an informal diary of “visits to the race-track” at a particular time and place, by a person who has followed the races with varying levels of participation over a long period. These relate primarily to some visits to the track and/or off-track betting venues in the 2025 period and onward. They contain observations about the activity, both specific and general. Although these remarks are personal, they also reflect general cultural and historical trends, as they have impacted horse-racing, wagering and culture in general.

The setting is Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (population of about one million plus). However, I imagine that the observations would apply to many places in the world, as they are a reflection of how changing trends in technology, globalization and culture in general have affected this ancient and honourable activity of horse-racing.

For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.

======================================================================

16 – Billy Budd’s (Dec 6, 2025)
- It was time for another trip to Billy Budd’s on the south-side. It was a much more wintry day than it had been for some time. That included some snowfall and considerably colder temperatures. But nonetheless, we soldiered on.
- Christmas was not far now. That included an Ugly Christmas Sweater Night. Sadly, we missed that interesting experience.
- The horse-racing section of the pub was fairly full, as it was Saturday afternoon. However, we managed to take some seats at a table on the lower level, near the screens, rather than at the long arc-shaped counter section a few steps above. Craig’s son Tyler was accompanying us once again, so we needed a bit more space, given that there were three people. Besides, Tyler wanted to eat, so we needed table space.
- The light levels there were not as good as they were in the section above, as that long bench type arrangement has undermount lighting, which lights up the working area. That is very handy for doing calculations (the numbers on the program are rather small and the printing is not always crisp, so decent light levels are needed).
- My calculations previously had been "by inspection", as they say in higher math. Basically that means eyeballing and estimating the average of a series of numbers. If there aren’t too many numbers, you can usually find the mid-point of the min and max, then the midpoint of that number with an intermediate number, and so forth until you converge on an estimate for the mean. I have tested it – it works surprisingly well for this purpose.
- Nevertheless, I wanted to try using an actual calculator for this trip. I had purchased a programmable calculator recently, but that seemed like overkill for this job. I also had an intermediate calculator (Casio) from some previous lifetime requirment, which has a statistics mode, so I brought that instead, thinking to use that.
- In addition, I had also downloaded a backup calculator onto my iPhone– it is a nifty little free calculator app which was specifically designed to take a list of numbers and output univariate statistics (count, sum, mean, median, mode, max, min, variance, standard deviations and sum of squares). That’s all it does, but that’s all I need.
- It is called StatCalcLite. There is a free version (which I have) and a paid version (which I don’t have). I don’t know how much more functionality the paid version has compared to the freebie, other than that the free version expects whole numbers (no decimals) for the input. I imagine it was limited in this fashion to get people to cough up some money for the paid version. But most handicapping stats start off with whole numbers anyway, so that’s not a problem for me.
- As it turned out, the light was a bit dim for the Casio, so I used the iPhone app, since it had a lighted screen. Data entry was fast, with a big virtual number keyboard. Output was also very quick and the screen was easy to read. So, score one for the iPhone app.
- On the subject of numbers, so far my luck/handicapping has been scarily good, with 10 out of 15 trips yielding a profit. But even if my handicapping was responsible for that, I was fairly certain that the "regression to the mean" phenomenon lay in store for me on this day.
- I’ve programmed a simulation in R to analyze this situation; this is a highly unlikely result if you assume random chance betting (i.e. just a lucky streak). I’ll give some further details about the simulations in some later blog, or maybe put it in a book.
- We got to Budd’s in time for the sixth race at Woodbine, which I keyed on. Craig and Tyler bet on a number of tracks, including Woodbine. Craig hit on some low-paying exotic bets (mostly favourites coming in the money), but no real scores. Tyler didn’t hit on any races but got lucky anyway (more on that later).
- My premonition about regression to the mean was correct – I didn’t win even one race. My numbers said 7-3-6 on race seven, it came in 6-3-7. I had a contender in the ninth, but it died in the stretch. Those two are about as close as I got on this day.
- One interesting thing did occur, while watching the ninth race at Gulfstream. It looked like the 4 horse had won, because the 6 horse went way wide on the final turn. But then, when the winners were shown on the TV screen, the 4 was showing up as coming in fourth with the six finishing behind at fifth. What had happened? Was there an inquiry, with these horses being dropped down, for the purpose of betting shenanigans? Or had we watched a replay of a different race? We kept watching the screen for clarity, but it never did come. Weird.
- Watching the replay a couple of days later on Youtube didn’t solve the mystery either. We were either in the Twilight Zone or we just misidentified the race. It would be interesting if it was the former but dreary old reality says it was the latter.
- Outside of horseracing, we discussed a variety of things.
  - Lots of rumours about the Oilers trading one of their two inconsistent goalies. Craig is definitely of the opinion that they have to do so. So am I, but I haven’t lost as many bets on the Oilers as Craig has, so I’m a bit more chill about it. However I did have a C-note on a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup last year, so I guess the Oilers goalie problems did cost me then.
  - Related to that (i.e. performance), Tyler and I discussed the problems of supervising people at work and judging their performance. We agreed that it is difficult, as you tend to judge people by how well you would do the job that you assigned to them. But that’s a problem, since you wouldn’t be in a supervisory role if you weren’t very good at your job (well, hopefully that’s true), so you have to bear that in mind when judging others. Obviously, that doesn’t apply when a regular person is judging professional athletes, though.
  - I mentioned to Tyler that his brother Corrie had reminisced to me about going to the track with his dad (my brother) on a recent email. To quote Corrie:
    - "I have very interesting and quite fond memories of visiting different horse-racing tracks with my dad as a kid. I used to find myself almost in a daze, standing in the middle of a floor riddled with ripped up race programs, the smell of cigar smoke, staring up at endless white semi transparent plastic cups filled with draft foamed up beer...shouting and endless chants with colorful obscenities at old TV monitors anchored from the walls. As a young kid, I used to think...when will I get to do this...lol."
    - Tyler then added (loosely quoting): "Yeah, we loved visiting Northlands while we were kids. Teddy (a friend of Craig’s and a racing enthusiast) would have a big win and come and toss a 20 dollar bill at Corrie and me saying ‘I had a big win, have some fun kids’. Cliff (another friend and racetrack enthusiast), would sometimes do the same. We would play the arcade games and eat potato chips, we loved the experience."
- Shortly thereafter, Tyler started looking at his cell phone every now and then. Finally he told us that a woman he knows was messaging, wanting to come over to his place for a visit. Apparently it was someone he knew from elementary school. He told her he was at the track with his dad and uncle, so he was busy right now and he and she could watch the hockey game together later. Shortly thereafter, she messaged him again, saying that she would pick him up once the races were done. Then, she messaged again saying that she was on her way, and finally she messaged that was waiting in the parking lot. It wasn’t even supper time yet, the races weren’t over, but he reluctantly had to leave us early (well not very reluctantly, he had an impish grin).
- He did mention that her dad owned a couple of racehorses, so I guess there was still a connection to the races. Now, if he would just marry her, we might get some inside dope on the horses...
- Craig and I bet a few more races and checked out the odds on some hockey games. Before leaving, Craig made a few bets on the upcoming harness races. We also checked out the futures on the Stanley Cup. Denver was at about 3.5 to 1, the Oilers and Panthers were both at about 8.5 to 1. Avalanche seems way overbet, Oilers are a good bet if they get a new goalie, Panthers are a good bet at those odds, though at threepeat seems like a tough row to hoe.
- Then it was time to go. No profit on the day, but a few laughs, which is just as good.
- P.S. It turned out that one of Craig’s Superfecta bets on the harness races came in later that night (he found out the next day on the internet) and paid a nice price that made up for all his losses of the day, and then some.
- P.P.S. It turned out that the Oilers did trade for a new goalie a few days later. We’ll see how that goes. Maybe we will make that futures bet on the Oilers now.
- P.P.P.S. Here’s a link to a blog that I did much later on the goalie trade results.
- https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2026/02/updated-goaltending-since-oilers.html

A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

Every gambler is bound to run out of luck eventually, right?

By far my favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.

It would have been helpful to have more character development in this short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well done.

I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of empathy for folks in his position.

A Dark Horse – A Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season and beyond.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here is an account of backpacking in Northern Ontario, that a friend and I did some years back. It also has a bit of canoing and some day hikes with my wife.

A Summer Working on the Railroad

What follows is an account of a few weeks one long-ago summer, when I was 19 and was working for the Canadian National Railway (CNR) on a railroad construction gang, in the wilds of north-central British Columbia, Canada.

The journal is in the form of a letter, that was never sent. Decades later, I think it has an interesting historical resonance. At times I come off like a callow youth – I plead guilty as charged. I swore a lot more in those days than I do now, but in places the writing is surprisingly good, at least in my humble opinion. And the story has a compelling narrative arc.

There were a lot of interesting and dramatic events that occurred – a number of industrial accidents being the most serious. There were also some colorful characters on the crew, which resulted in some dramatic and at times amusing conflicts and altercations. I perhaps flatter myself by including myself in that number. Or perhaps I condemn myself – I’m not sure.

So, if you want to be reminded of one of those summer jobs that was kind of life-changing, read on. My story may just kick-start some memories of your own.

The memoir/journal is about 9,000 words, a length that can usually be read in an hour or so. It is priced at 99 cents U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and is free on Kindle Unlimited. Periodically, it will be offered as a free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CN661P8Z

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0CN661P8Z

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CN661P8Z

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0CN661P8Z

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0CN661P8Z