Updated: Goaltending Since the Oilers-Penguins Trade

Now that the Olympics are done, it is a good time to review how the Oilers-Penguins trade worked out, using a longer time-line than the previous blog.

Tristan Jarry Update

For reference, the last blog was when Jarry was at Game 20. At that time, things were looking pretty good for him. Since then, the graph has turned way down, including a couple of .750 games, though it has not all been bad (one .900 game). This up-and-down performance was also seen during his time with Pittsburgh, though his record was somewhat better there, to this point in time. That may be due to the Penguins playing a better defensive game than the Oilers, or it may just be the random variation that is not unusual in such data. Consistency, in any high level activity, is a lot harder than the average person thinks.

Overall, since the trade, Tristan has had 1 excellent game (a shutout), 4 very good games (around .900), 4 so-so games (around .850) and 2 stinkers (around .750).

Jarry is still above water since the trade, in terms of (actual points/possible points) = 64%. However, that’s a drop from 75%, which was his record since the trade in the original post. Interestingly, the 64% is exactly the same as his record with the Penguins, earlier in the season.

Stuart Skinner Update

Next, we will look at Stuart Skinner’s updated performance since the trade, since the trade was Jarry for Skinner. For reference, Stu’s last game before this graph was updated was game 32).

The 4 games since the original graph are similar to Jarry’s, in terms of the up-and-down nature of the data. He had two excellent games (around .950) and two howlers (both under .800). So, it could be argued that the teams traded one inconsistent goalie for a different inconsistent goalie.

Overall, since the trade, Stu has had 5 really good games (around .950), 2 pretty good games (around .900), 3 so-so games (around .850) and 3 howlers (below .800).

Skinner’s (actual points/possible points) = 66% since the trade, whereas it had been 57% in the original post. So, a decent improvement. For comparison, his record with the Oilers was 52%.

Conner Ingram Update

Next, we will look at Conner Ingram. Though he wasn’t part of the trade, the trade certainly affected his career path. For reference, his last game before the update of the graph was game 9, the shutout.

Since that time, Ingram has not done very well, either. Two games were semi-respectable and 2 were bad, below .800.

Calvin Pickard Update

Pickard has not played any Oilers games since the trade, though he was with the team for some of that time. However he was ultimately put on waivers, passed waivers, then sent down to the Oilers AHL team in Bakersfield, California. He hasn’t played since being sent down, as far as I know. It turns out the the farm team has a couple of very good goalie prospects, so it may be difficult to slot him in.

It is too bad, because he did make some really stand-out performances in the playoffs, during the previous couple of years, bailing out the team when Skinnter faltered. He is also known for being a good team player (‘good in the room’) and an overall nice guy. However, he is well into his 30s and has had a long and interesting career (it would make a good hockey book). Plus, even with relatively low pay for a hockey player, he had make a lot more money than 99% of the population did over that time. So there’s that.

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Original Post

The Edmonton Oilers hockey club has long been seen as having inconsistent goaltending – sometimes their goalies have been stellar, other times seemingly hopeless. The latest tandem to exhibit that tendency was Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. Many observers felt that more reliable goaltending would have led to at least one Stanley Cup victory, rather than a 7 and 6 game losses, as was the case in 2023-24 and 2024-25.

Thus, in mid-December 2025 they made a key goalie trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins, swapping Stuart Skinner for Tristan Jarry. As a side-effect of that trade, they also called up Conner Ingram from their AHL affiliate, since Jarry had experienced an injury shortly after the trade. The net effect (pun intended) was that they transitioned from Skinner-Pickard to Jarry-Ingram, with Calvin Pickard in a third goalie role, at least for a while, as insurance should one of the other two become injured again.

At the time of this blog, it has been a little over a month since the trade. So, how has it gone? Read below for some statistical evidence.

NOTE, next day: Hilariously enough, Oilers and Penguins played a game the very night that I published this blog and Jarry absolutely bombed (0.727 in that game), sending his save pct to 0.881 (from 0.904) in saves/shots and 0.878 (from 0.903) in average of game save percentages. His win pct dropped to 57% (from 67%), and his point pct went down to 64% (from 75%).

As I pointed out in the blog: his trend with the Oilers has only a limited number of games, so it should be taken with a large measure of caution.

Statisticians say this all the time, because it’s true.

Tristan Jarry

Jarry has played 6 games, as of Dec 21, 2026 for the Oilers. Previous to that, he had played 14 games with the Penguins. His Oilers save percentage since the trade has been over 0.900 , customarily thought of as an important benchmark. In terms of overall saves/shots, it is 0.904, while in terms of averaging the save percentage in each game, it is at 0.903. Note that the two methods can yield slightly different results, depending on how many outlier games the goalie has had (i.e. very much better or worse than usual).

His record with the Penguins this year, was not all that different from that with the Oilers, in terms of save percentage, at 0.909 for saves/shots and 0.895 when averaging the save percentages in each game. This result shows how the two methods can give different answers. That is further demonstrated by the high ups and downs of his Penguins games, as shown in the graph.

The graph shows that Jarry’s linear trend with the Penguins was slightly downward, while the trend with the Oilers it has been upward. That said, his trend with the Oilers has only a limited number of games, so it should be taken with a large measure of caution.

Jarry won 4 out of these 6 Oiler games, for a win percentage of 67%. In terms of points, he has played net for 9 of 12 potential points, for a points average of 75%.

For the Penguins earlier in the year, his win percentage in 14 games was 64%, with his points percentage coming in at 68%.

So, as far as Jarry’s play goes, the trade has worked out well so far for him and for the Oilers.

Stuart Skinner

Stuart Skinner has played 9 games with the Penguins, after having played 23 games with the Oilers previous to that. His Penguins save percentage since the trade has been a bit under 0.900. In terms of overall saves/shots, it is 0.891, while in terms of averaging the save percentage in each game, it is at 0.895. Note again that the two methods can yield different results, depending on how many outlier games the goalie has had (i.e. very much better or worse than usual).

The graph shows that Skinner’s linear trend with the Oilers was downward, while with the Penguins it has been upward. That said, his trend with the Penguins has only a limited number of games, so it should also be taken with a large measure of caution.

His record with the Oilers this year, was not as good as it has been with the Penguins. His Oilers save percentage was 0.891 for saves/shots and 0.872 when averaging the save percentages in each game. Again, this result shows how the two methods can give quite different answers. That is further demonstrated by the high ups and downs of his Oilers games, as shown in the graph. It is also the case that his games with the Penguins have had a fair bit of variance.

Skinner won 5 out of the 9 Penguin games, for a win percentage of 56%. In terms of points, he has played net for 10 of 18, also for a points average of 56%.

For the Oilers earlier in the year, his win percentage in 23 games was 48%, with his points percentage coming in at 57%.

So, as far as Skinner’s play goes, the trade has worked out well so far for him (higher save percentage), and it has probably been a slight loss for the Penguins. However, it is a small sample size, so that may change as the season progresses.

Conner Ingram

Conner Ingram was not directly involved in the trade, though it is probable that the trade did make his call-up from the AHL affiliate necessary. Since then, he has answered the bell quite decisively, with a 0.917 save percentage for the total saves/shots measure, and 0.920 for the average of averages measure.

The graph shows that Ingram’s linear trend with the Oilers has been upward. That said, it is a limited number of games (9 in all), so it should also be taken with a measure of caution.

Ingram has won 5 out of 9 starts, for a win percentage of 56%. In terms of points, he has played for 11 points out of a possible 18, for a points percentage of 61%.

So, as far as Ingram’s play goes, the trade has worked out well so far for him. It has resulted in him being called up to the NHL team, where he has posted an impressive save percentage as well as a very good win and points percentage. However, it is a small sample size, so that may change as the season progresses.

Calvin Pickard

Calvin Pickard was not part of the trade, but it has also had an impact on him. He had several starts while Jarry was injured, more than he otherwise would have had. Previous to the trade his save percentage was mediocre at best, with 0.851 in total saves/shots and 0.848 in average of game save percentages. Since the trade those figures have improved considerably, to 0.901 for the former measure and 0.896 for the latter.

The graph shows that Pickard’s linear trend with the Oilers has been upward, largely due to the good play since the trade. That said, his post-trade sample of games (6 in all) is relatively small, so it should be taken with a measure of caution.

Pickard won 3 out of the 6 post-trade games, for a win percentage of 50%. In terms of points, he has played net for 6 of 12, also for a points average of 50%.

For the Oilers earlier in the year, his win percentage in 10 games was 30%, with his points percentage coming in at 40%.

So, as far as Pickard’s play goes, the trade has worked out fairly well so far for him. His save percentages, win percentages and points percentages have improved. However, it is a small sample size, so that may change as the season progresses.

It is not clear how long the Oilers can afford to carry three goalies. Pickard’s improved performances have made that a tougher call. He could be picked up by some other team, should they choose to send him to the AHL affilate. Arguably, his post-trade play has made that a greater possibility than it had been earlier in the year.

Overall Result

The data support the idea that the Oilers have indeed improved their goaltending situation by the trade.

As for the Penguins, they may have taken a slight hit from the trade.

However, it is still early days, so those results could change.

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A Dark Horse

In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?

The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5

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Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads

(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)

A Dark Horse

Every gambler is bound to run out of luck eventually, right?

By far my favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.

It would have been helpful to have more character development in this short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well done.

I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of empathy for folks in his position.

A Dark Horse – A Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season and beyond.

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The Magnetic Anomaly – A Science Fiction Novel

The novel version of The Magnetic Anomaly is now available on Amazon (ebook, print version, also audible version soon to come).

Summary

Two young Earth scientists, Alex and Mary, get caught up in a vast conflict, based on an accidental finding that they make at a diamond exploration camp in the far north. Eventually, this discovery leads them on a perilous quest and involvement in an interstellar war, a conflict of literally cosmic proportions with a rogue AI, which considers itself duty-bound to destroy sentient life (or, from its point of view, liberate sentient life).

During this time, they encounter a variety of enigmatic persons, as well as other entities, all of whom are also engaged in this struggle. With some of them they end up allying; with others, they contend in deadlyconflict. The struggle takes them around the world, and eventually into the far reaches of the solar system.

During this time their relationship continues to evolve and deepen. Circumstances demand that they grow in courage and confidence, though within the scope of (mostly) normal people, as has been the case for countless people throughout history.

The story also showcases some historical events, relating to different versions of what went on in Antarctica, shortly after World War 2. Several versions of these events, official and unofficial UFO lore are given. This becomes a springboard to much of the action. Some philosophical and scientific concepts are also explored, though not in such a way as to get in the way of the plot.

Amazon:

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

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Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0F9J3HHFW

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0F9J3HHFW