My Conner McDavid Prediction of April 2024 – How did it Turn Out?
Review of an Earlier Predictive Blog about Conner McDavid’s Extension Decision
Back in April 2024, I wrote a facetious blog suggesting that the Edmonton Oilers management actually wanted to trade Conner McDavid to an American team, and would frustrate him into going along with that idea, by ensuring that the team would never have a consistent goalie during McDavid’s tenure. The idea was that the NHL wanted their marquee player to go to a big market in the U.S. in order to "grow the game", rather than ‘waste’ their greatest talent in a small Canadian market. I drew some obvious parallels with the saga of Wayne Gretzky, another great Oiler who was traded in his prime, in the hopes of sparking more widespread interest in hockey in the U.S.. I have appended that blog to the end of this one, for a more detailed working-out of the theory.
Here are some of the detailed predictions from that earlier blog:
Prediction: "Oilers insist that Skinner is the man, this summer. McDavid decides “that’s it, I’m out of here”. Bonus: the wife goes to a bigger, more important city, as did Gretzky’s wife."
Outcome: The Oilers did insist that Skinner (or Skinner-Pickard) is their intended goalie solution for the next season, during the off-season between 2024-25 and 2025-26. However, instead of deciding "that’s it, I’m out of here", he decided "here’s enough money to get a top-level goalie so that my teammates and I can win a Stanley Cup. If we don’t get that goalie and win the Cup, I’m gone." I predict that Conner will be watching very intensely, to see if management gets the message.
Prediction: "McDavid does not go to the Leafs or any other Canadian team (sorry Leafs fans). The NHL (i.e. Bettman) sees no point in that, they want him in an American market."
Outcome: It’s true that McDavid didn’t go to the Leafs or any other Canadian team, since he did extend with Edmonton. However, the Leafs did lose Mitch Marner to a U.S. team (Las Vegas) over the off-season, so I think I deserve some part-marks for that.
Prediction: "Once this is accomplished, the Oilers will shop around for a new, better goalie, and obtain one. That will console the local fans, at least somewhat."
Outcome: Again, McDavid didn’t leave the Oilers, so that part is N/A. However the Oilers have done some limited shopping for a new, better goalie, resulting in the signing of Conner Ingram of Utah. It remains to be seen if that constitutes an improvement or whether the local fans are consoled by the signing of this goalie. It seems unlikely to me that this deal goes as far as McDavid wants. We will see what the Oilers management does over the next year or so. I predict that they will continue to drag their feet.
Prediction: "Which market? Probably one that is promising for expansion of the league’s presence in the U.S.. But probably not one where hockey is already firmly established (not New York, for example). Possible locations: Utah, Seattle, San Jose or Columbus."
Outcome: Again, McDavid didn’t leave the Oilers, so that part is N/A. It is interesting that Utah has had some involvement in the general scenario (via Conner Ingram), however.
Some Comments and Observations about Conner McDavid’s Actual Extension Decision
What actually happened, is that McDavid signed a 2 year extension to his contract, maintaining his pay at $12.5 million per year. It is widely agreed that, as hockey’s best player, he could have held out for much more than that. Some other marquee players signed for much more money, with the current maximum being $17 million. McDavid could have easily gotten that much, from the Oilers or just about any other team in the league.
So why did he do it? This is usually referred to as a home-town deal or a friendly deal. The idea is that the player wants to stay with his current team for one reason or another, so he gives them a sweetheart deal. That may be that he or his family really like the city that they are in, that he really likes the team and his teammates or perhaps really dislikes the alternative teams that can afford to pay him the maximum attainable salary.
Most people think that McDavid really wants to win a Stanley Cup and realized that by getting top dollar he would handicap any team that he signed with, as then they wouldn’t have the money to surround him with at truly top-notch team. So, he decided to sacrifice some money in order to win the championship trophy. (Note that teams have a maximum salary that they can pay (the cap), so low-balling his contract opened up cap-space (left money in the kitty for other top players to be signed)). Presumably he looked around and thought the Oilers were his best chance of realizing his goal, if they had enough cap-space to sign a top-flight goalie.
He is also known to be good friends with Leon Draisaitl, another Oiler who has signed a long-term contract with the Oilers. So he may be prioritizing friendship over money, at least for a while. Then there is family to consider. His wife has started up several businesses in Edmonton, so she might want to stick around to grow those businesses, both for the money and as a personal goal.
It is also worth keeping in mind that he could well earn a lot more money in the future, should he captain a Stanley Cup winning team. Yes, he is a great player either way, but there is something about winning the Cup that cements that reputation and supports any demands for even more money. So, it is possible that this plan might earn him more money in the long run than going for the gusto would have done in the present.
There is also the notion of legacy to consider. Winning a Stanley Cup in Edmonton would give him ‘Cup cred’ and would be extra-significant as it would be the first Stanley Cup to come to Canada since the early 1990’s. That would be an extra feather in his cap, or hockey helmet. He has expressed the desire to be on a winning Canadian Olympic Gold Medal hockey team, so some patriotism is probably mixed into the motivations.
A final consideration deals with the nature of money itself. He has already earned over $100 million up to this point in his career, not including endorsements or other non-hockey money. And $12.5 isn’t exactly small potatoes, so he is still increasing his overall wealth, rather handily. While many people think "the best must be payed the most", this rule of thumb is just that, not an actual rule that people must follow. He is demonstrating that with his extension signing.
How is it Turning Out so Far?
It has only been a couple of weeks since the season started (I am writing this on Oct 19, 2025). The Oilers are in one of their usual early-season skids, losing their last three games on the road. Does this mean that the deal isn’t working out?
Well, obviously it is far to early to say anything like that. However, it may indicate some issues about leadership. Perhaps coach Kris Knoblauch is having some difficulty with the situation. While it is true that top players are more important than coaches (e.g. they make more money), it is important to maintain the fiction that the coach is top dog. So, perhaps that’s an issue.
The whole business might have also placed a lot of unexpected self-imposed stress on Conner McDavid. He has called his shot, so to speak, so now he has to hit a home run (yes, I am mixing hockey and baseball metaphors, as well as dogsled teams). That could weigh heavily on Conner’s mind, at least for a while.
Having said all that, it is almost certain that the Oilers will pull out of the doldrums and begin winning again. At least this way, they need not fear the President’s Cup curse of the ‘peaking too early’ curse.
Appendix 1: Earlier blog post
A Modest Hockey Proposal – McDavid Leaves the Oilers, with the Hows and Whys (Apr 24, 2024)
Note: This is just meant in the spirit of fun and irony, not to be taken seriously by lawyers and such.
1987 – Gretzky traded/sold after about 10 years with Oilers (including WHA).
He went to L.A. - the idea was to lock down hockey as a major league sport in the U.S., especially Southern California (and southern regions in general).
The deal was between Pocklington and McNall – but obviously the NHL brain-trust must have also been involved, at least to some extent.
Gretzky was “wasted” in Edmonton – he was a big draw all over North America, but it would create more publicity if he was playing in a larger market. More money and prestige for everyone.
Flash forward to 2020s.
McDavid has had about 10 years with the Oilers, came very close to a Stanley Cup.
McDavid is “wasted” in Edmonton – he is a big draw all over, but would create more publicity if he was playing in a larger American market. More money and prestige for everyone.
But how to move him to a different city?
Solution: Oilers owner and management (Katz and company) insist on keeping under-performing goalie(s), though it is obvious that this is not working.
This frustrates McDavid, so he wants to go to a contender with standard or better goal-tending.
Predictions:
Oilers insist that Skinner is the man, this summer. McDavid decides “that’s it, I’m out of here”. Bonus: the wife goes to a bigger, more important city, as did Gretzky’s wife.
McDavid does not go to the Leafs or any other Canadian team (sorry Leafs fans). The NHL (i.e. Bettman) sees no point in that, they want him in an American market.
Once this is accomplished, the Oilers will shop around for a new, better goalie, and obtain one. That will console the local fans, at least somewhat.
Which market? Probably one that is promising for expansion of the league’s presence in the U.S.. But probably not one where hockey is already firmly established (not New York, for example). Possible locations: Utah, Seattle San Jose or Columbus.
Questions:
Is this crazy conspiracy thinking? No, this makes perfect sense from the NHL’s point of view. Furthermore, pro sports are “entertainment” so questions about fairness are irrelevant.
Why would Katz do it? He has his new hockey arena. He doesn’t need McDavid to draw fans in Edmonton. Leon Draisaitl will still remain with the Oilers, so that will assuage the local fans (especially if the Oilers sign a new goalie, shortly after McDavid leaves).
What’s in it for Katz and Oilers management?
Many possible hockey or non-hockey business opportunities or positions might suddenly open up (though it would just be a coincidence).
Plus, there would be a status gain for this development “it was best for the good of the league and the game”. Edmonton fans would grumble, but they will always show up at the rink and on the TV.
Would this be considered anti-trust behaviour on behalf of Katz and Bettman (possibly others as well)? Hard to say, but it would be difficult to prove anyway.
