Race Track Diary, Entry Number Fifty
– Billy Budd’s (Oct 17, 2026)
Introduction
This blog and some following blogs are sections from an informal diary of “visits to the race-track” at a particular time and place, by a person who has followed the races with varying levels of participation over a long period. These relate primarily to some visits to the track and/or off-track betting venues in the 2025 period and onward. They contain observations about the activity, both specific and general. Although these remarks are personal, they also reflect general cultural and historical trends, as they have impacted horse-racing, wagering and culture in general.
The setting is Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (population of about one million plus). However, I imagine that the observations would apply to many places in the world, as they are a reflection of how changing trends in technology, globalization and culture in general have affected this ancient and honourable activity of horse-racing.
For now, I will use what I call “polished point-form” for the narrative.
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50 – Billy Budd’s (Oct 17, 2026)
This was the 50th journal entry and therefore the sort of round number that people seem to be drawn to, as far as evaluations are concerned. So, I suppose a little summing up is called for.
However, I note in the 25th entry I say “ Since I had been intensively studying the Harness Races, I decided I could count those winnings to my tally of results, in my horseracing project.” So, focusing strictly on the harness races, I might well consider this the 25th journal entry. But that’s a round number too (technically not, but it is divisible by 5, which people also like), so perhaps I should do some summing up, using that subset of data too.
So, here is a screenshot of the numbers, subsetted by type of race:
I imagine this looks too good to be true, to the majority of horse players. If I hadn’t kept reasonably good records, I would have probably agreed. In terms of explanation for my modest success, I would say:
While 50 betting days seems like a sufficient sample to be confident about the results, it is likely still too small for certainty. Sometimes you can get lucky for a while, then your luck turns. For all I know, that is what is in store for me.
Having detailed information about the races does make a difference. When I look around the room, I typically notice that most bettors do not seem to be doing much ‘scientific’ analysis. So, I think you can develop an edge that way, but it costs you a lot, in terms of time and work. I describe those processes below:
I handicapped the thoroughbreds on the spot (i.e. on the day of the race, at the OTB location). That included calculating average speed ratings and/or Beyer’s numbers for the last few races for each horse, then comparing those. I tended to give greater weight for races where the horse had been in the money, even if it was a fair while back. If a horse had really good speed numbers as well as decent odds, that was a good prospect. I also kept on the lookout for odds drops and generally bet those if the drop from morning line to race time was large (e.g. cut in half). But there is only so much you can do in the short interval before a race.
For the harness races, I had a lot more data, since I could download the session’s program data at Woodbine/Mohawk into a computer well before the races were run, then analyze that data for trends, and bet accordingly.
I should warn anybody, that can be a lot of work and it requires a fair degree of knowledge about computers and data analysis. Learning those skills also requires significant amounts of time, whether ‘school-trained’ or self-trained. Of course, if you have a lot of knowledge of horses and horse-races (i.e. subject area knowledge), that should also help.
Using this data, I was able to develop models that took into account factors like post position, horses’ running styles, times and positions at some critical points of a race, and consideration of morning line and final-odds. That seemed to help to turn a modest profit, thought their were stretches when things would dry up. There are plenty of more variables that one could look at, though that presents a danger of over-analyzing the data and/or over-fitting the model to the data.
A tricky issue with models, is how often to update them. Should you use your entire dataset or focus on only fairly recent data. On the one hand, you want to discover principles that have staying power, while on the other hand you want to acknowledge that some things change over time, though they can remain predictable for useful time periods (or so you hope). These changes might represent seasonal effects (e.g. weather), age effects (young horses can grow and change significantly during a season), track bias, crowd effects (betting tendencies) or a myriad of other factors.
I updated a few times over the period in question. I think it was helpful, though I think it shouldn’t be done too often.
Even though I wasn’t betting much money, it was still nerve-wracking (an ego thing, I suppose).
I tended to stick to Win/Place/Show bets, due to the smaller takeouts on these bets. Sticking to Win seemed to be the best strategy, though I did experiment with Place and Show at times. Dropping down to Show seemed to work better than Place, at least with my models. However, that may just be an oddity of my dataset.
I did pick up a few exactors, however. And I would sometimes play some cheap Win-3 races with my brother, though I didn’t include that in my ‘official’ results (it was just for the sake of having a few laughs together).
My policy was to bet only one track at a time, though sometimes the thoroughbreds and the harness races might overlap, so I might make a few simultaneous bets because of that. Still, I find it too chaotic to attempt to follow too many tracks at the same time.
If I couldn’t hang around for the full card, I sometimes advance bet. It turned out alright, during the few times that I did it. Still, it seems negligent to bet when one has no idea of the race-time odds (e.g. you can’t spot odds-drops). That said, sometimes I scored with a pretty good (moderate) longshot win that way, which I might have dismissed had I known the race-time odds.
On a related note, skipping some races if you don’t like any of the horses seemed like a good policy. That said, you can’t really be sure about it – you may miss out on some nice winners that way.
Anyway, back to the events of Oct 17.
It was a big crowd on this Saturday, with lots of cars in the parking lot and many people in the pub in general, as well as in the OTB area.
I asked a regular who was there when we came, “why the big crowd? Is there a big race today that I don’t know about?” Response: “No big races, the Breeders Cup races won’t start for several weeks. Just a lot of obsessive gamblers, I suppose.”
The English waitress said that a big party (150 people) were due later on, but they weren’t present yet. “It’s just like this, sometimes,” she said.
There was an Oilers hockey game scheduled for later that day, but that wouldn’t start for hours. There was a UFC Fight Night in town, that day, so maybe that was it. Otherwise, like the waitress said, it is just like that sometimes. People, like horses, can be hard to figure out.
At any rate, I picked up a Santa Anita program and did some calculations, until the bucket-pullers started. I didn’t see much in the way of bettable races, so I only bet two. One of them was a loser (finished fourth) and the other came in, but only on a cheap show ticket (basically a beer bet).
I then did a bunch of advance bets on the Woodbine/Mohawk Harness Races. The results were extremely ugly, to say the least.
My ROI system only picked the winner of one race correctly and that paid only a bit over even money.
Though I didn’t actually bet the WPct system, it also only picked one even-money winner.
The track’s odds-makers (aka “touts”) did even worse, not even picking a single winner.
So, it was a strange day. After doing quite well during my first 49 visits to the horses, my 50th visit was a nearly total wipe-out. At the harness races, I got one winner for 12 bets (the touts did even worse, which was something of a comfort). At Santa Anita, I was 1 for 2, though my show ticket paid less than even money.
It was like a day when all the favourite hockey teams lost their games – it can (and must) happen every once in a while, but when it does, it seems wrong and unreal. Was this cruel fate in the visage of Gamblor playing a trick on an auspicious day? Perhaps a bit of regression to the mean (but what is the mean?) Or was it the harbinger of many bad days to come. Time will tell.
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And here’s an account of some road trips in south-western Alberta:
A Selection of Back-Road Trips Around
Southwest Alberta
There are two main aspects to a road trip: the journey and the destination. Sometimes the trip is all about the journey, sometimes it’s all about the destination. Usually it is a little of both.
This collection of back-roads journeys feature a little bit of both of these aspects. Some accounts are more about the ‘journey’, such as a road trip on scenic Highway 22. Others are more about the ‘destination’, such as the show-jumping at Spruce Meadows. I hope you will enjoy reading some of these accounts and maybe give them a spin for yourself.
Southwest 1 – A Road Trip on Scenic Highway 22
Southwest 2 – The Equestrian Competitions at Spruce Meadows (Calgary)
Southwest 3 – The Bar U Ranch, south of Long View
Southwest 4 – Kananaskis Country
Southwest 5 – Blackfoot Crossing
Southwest 6 – Back-roads, from the Prairies to the Foothills: Brazeau Dam Trip
Southwest 7 – A Back-roads Trip to Hinton and the Forestry Trunk Roads
The reader may wonder “what about the Ice-fields Parkway?” or “where is a visit to Banff?” I would answer, that these famous destinations are covered very nicely by other books. This account is meant to focus on some less travelled areas, thus the “back-roads” descriptor.
I should note that the other three quadrants of Alberta also have a lot of interesting back-roads journeys, but those are material for some other books which will be published in due time.
Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon U.K: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon CA: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0DCMJP47G
Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0DCMJP47G
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The Zoo Hypothesis
We
present a story giving a possible scenario for the so-called Zoo
Hypothesis, an explanation known in Star Trek lore as the Prime
Directive. It’s an explanation sometimes given to account for a
mystery in the Search for Intelligent Life, known as The Great
Silence, or Fermi’s Paradox.
Basically, Enrico Fermi argued (quite convincingly, to many observers), that there had been ample time for an alien intelligence to colonize the galaxy since its formation, so where are they? The Zoo Hypotheses says that they are out there, but have cordoned off the Earth from contact, until we are sufficiently evolved or culturally advanced to handle the impact of alien contact.
This story takes a humorous tongue in cheek approach to that explanation. It also features dogs and sly references to Star Trek. Talk about man’s Best Friend.
It is only 99 cents U.S., equivalent price in other currencies. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is sometimes on a free promotion.
Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B076RR1PGD
Amazon India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B076RR1PGD
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A Selection of Back-Road
Trips Around Southeast
Alberta
There are two main aspects to a road trip: the journey and the destination. Sometimes the trip is all about the journey, sometimes it’s all about the destination. Usually it is a little of both.
This collection of back-roads journeys feature a little bit of both of these aspects. Some accounts are more about the ‘journey’, such as Drumheller, via the Backroads of Central Alberta. Others are more about the ‘destination’, such as the Viking Ribstones. The collection even includes a train trip, on the historic Alberta Prairie Railroad, which strictly speaking isn't a back-road trip but rather a back rail-road trip. I hope you will enjoy reading some of these accounts and maybe give them a spin for yourself.
Southeast 1 – Stettler Train Trip – Living History on the Alberta Prairie Railway
Southeast 2 – Viking Rib Stones – Indigenous Heritage and Tradition
Southeast 3 – Drumheller, via the Backroads of Central Alberta
Southeast 4 – Cypress Hills – An Island on the Prairie that Escaped the Ice Age
Southeast 5 – On the Road with Bronco Billy, A Trucking Journal – Southern Alberta Section
Southeast 6 – A Back-road Trip to Bittern Lake and Lake Miquelon Provincial Park
Southeast 7 – A Back-roads Trip to Rochon Sands, Buffalo Lake Provincial Park
The reader may wonder “what about the Tyrell Dinosaur Fossil Museum?” or “where is a visit to the Calgary Stampede?” I would answer, that these famous destinations are covered very nicely by other books. This account is meant to focus on some less travelled areas, thus the “back-roads” descriptor.
I should note that Southwest and Northern Alberta also have a lot of interesting back-roads journeys, but that is material for some other books. The southwest collection is available now on Amazon, the northern excursions will be published in due course.
Just $1.99 on Amazon, or free if you have Kindle Unlimited. It is also periodically on free promotion.
Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon U.K: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon CA: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B0DCWCCTKC
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A Dark Horse
In “A Dark Horse”, a gambler’s desire to hit a big win seems to lead him to make a Faustian bargain with a supernatural evil. Or is it all just a string of unnaturally good luck?
The story is just $0.99 U.S. (equivalent in other currencies) and about 8000 words. It is also available on Kindle Unlimited and is occasionally on free promotion.
U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01MDMY2BR
Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01M9BS3Y5
Here’s an interesting review from Goodreads
(BTW, the writer has never met the reviewer and was not even aware of the review until very recently – You can look up the review on Goodreads, if you like)
A Dark Horse
Every gambler is
bound to run out of luck eventually, right?
By far my
favourite type of horror is psychological horror. I was quite pleased
with how Mr. Olausen frightened his audience without spilling a
single drop of blood or so much as hinting at anything gory. He knew
exactly what hints to drop for us that made us deliciously dread the
next scene simply by throwing out hints about who or what the dark
horse might actually represent. This is the kind of stuff I love
getting scared by, especially as Halloween approaches.
It
would have been helpful to have more character development in this
short story. While I certainly wouldn’t expect to see as much time
spent on this as I would for a full-length novel, I did have trouble
connecting to the main characters due to how little I knew about them
and how much their personalities seemed to remain the same no matter
what happened to them. If not for this issue, I would have felt
comfortable choosing a much higher rating as the plot itself was well
done.
I must admit to not knowing much about gambling at
all, so I appreciated the brief explanations the narrator shared
about how placing bets works and why some people have so much trouble
walking away from a bet. While I will leave it up to experts on these
topics to say how accurate everything was, I did enjoy learning more
about the main character’s addiction and what he hoped to gain from
betting on just one more game or race. It gave me a stronger sense of
empathy for folks in his position.
A Dark Horse – A
Gothic Tale was a deliciously chilling story for the Halloween season
and beyond.
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