Statistics and Probability Effect Human Life in Every Way Imaginable

Statistics and Probability Effect Human Life in Every Way Imaginable

Someone on Quora asked me this, so I thought it was worth spending a few minutes on it.  I have worked in statistical analysis, or what is now called “data science” since my mid-20’s, so for over 30 years (for a non-profit, a government and a university). Naturally, I have also read a lot on the subject, with some focus on the history of the discipline.  I don’t claim to be a historian of science or mathematics, though, just an interested practitioner of the subject.

As someone who answered questions about Probability (statistics) before, can you help with this question?

How do statistics and probability affect the lives of human beings?

Statistics and probability effect human life in every way imaginable, and always have.  From the earliest days, people have been estimating the odds of success versus failure, about small and large matters (note that the quotations are examples of what people might have said at the time, not actual historical quotes).

Prehistory (Instinct as expectation theory): “Is that motion of the grass a tiger or just the wind.  Most of the time its just the wind, but you never know.  I will come back to the waterhole a bit later, and check again, as I am not that thirsty yet.”

Biblical History (Early census and sampling theory): “How many people do we have and how much tax can we expect to raise from them?  We’d better do a census.”

Ancient history (Early informal probability theory): “Should we attack the Roman encampment?  It would be a fantastic victory, but the Romans win most of the time, so we had better not.”

 Cities founded by the Romans

Early Modern History (Early expectation theory profit/loss): “Columbus’s plan to cross the ocean to get to Cathay seems unlikely, but the prize is great, and the cost is bearable, so let’s fund him.”

Eighteenth Century (Formal development of probability theory): “I love to gamble but I am not doing so well at it.  Perhaps I will hire that Bernoulli fellow to study games more precisely, and get an edge that way.”

Nineteenth Century (Statistical physics): “Perhaps if we treated gases as a large collection of particles, we wouldn’t need to understand the motions of every one of them.  We will just compute the average behaviour of the collection, assuming a Gaussian distribution, and use that to derive the temperature and explain the concept of heat via kinetic-molecular theory.”

Twentieth Century 1 (Probability and weather forecasting): “The meteorologist says that there is an 80% chance of a gap in the stormy weather on June 6, based on past weather patterns, so there should be  fairly decent conditions for a landing.  So, lets go ahead with D-Day, and hope that his prediction comes to pass.”

Twentieth Century 2 (Evidence Based Medicine): “We really don’t know how well a lot of treatments actually work.  Many treatments have just been taught for generations, without rigorous testing.  Let’s come up with some standards for evidence and be sure that we know what really works.”

Twenty-first Century (Data science and the internet): “Perhaps I can use this clever data science algorithm to find just the right people to persuade to click through, and buy my book.”

So, now that you have read a bit about the effect of statistical theory on history, you could actually click through and buy my book. :)

How about a short story, also about interstellar interlopers.  It also features one possible scenario to explain why we haven’t met ET yet (as far as we know, anyway).  Only 99 cents on Amazon.

The Zoo Hypothesis or The News of the World: A Science Fiction Story

Summary

In the field known as Astrobiology, there is a research program called SETI, The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence.  At the heart of SETI, there is a mystery known as The Great Silence, or The Fermi Paradox, named after the famous physicist Enrico Fermi.  Essentially, he asked “If they exist, where are they?”.

Some quite cogent arguments maintain that if there was extraterrestrial intelligence, they should have visited the Earth by now. This story, a bit tongue in cheek, gives a fictional account of one explanation for The Great Silence, known as The Zoo Hypothesis.  Are we a protected species, in a Cosmic Zoo?  If so, how did this come about?  Read on, for one possible solution to The Fermi Paradox.

The short story is about 6300 words, or about half an hour at typical reading speeds.

Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B076RR1PGD

Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B076RR1PGD

Alternatively, consider another short invasion story, this one set in the Arctic.  Also 99 cents.

The Magnetic Anomaly

Summary

An attractive woman in a blue suit handed a dossier to an older man in a blue uniform.

“Give me a quick recap”, he said.

“A geophysical crew went into the Canadian north. There were some regrettable accidents among a few ex-military who had become geophysical contractors after their service in the forces. A young man and young woman went temporarily mad from the stress of seeing that. They imagined things, terrible things. But both are known to have vivid imaginations; we have childhood records to verify that. It was all very sad. That’s the official story.”

He raised an eyebrow. “And unofficially?”

“Unofficially,” she responded, “I think we just woke something up that had been asleep for a very long time.”

U.S.: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0176H22B4
U.K. http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0176H22B4
Can: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B0176H22B4
Australia: http://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B0176H22B4
Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B0176H22B4
Japan: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/B0176H22B4