Friday 16 January 2015

Amazon Top 100 Kindle Books 2014 Part 2a (Sales) - Indies versus Trads, Revisited



Blogger seemed to have trouble with this post, so I will have to do it in two parts 

Summary

Here’s a thumbnail summary of what transpired in 2014, as compared to 2013:


  • Based on the number of reviews posted, and assuming that a relatively constant percentage of readers review books, there was a substantial increase in readership from 2013 to 2014 (47%).  This does not support the belief that e-book readership has plateaued - indeed it implies that e-book adoption continues apace.



  • Indies continued to make incremental gains in both titles in the top 100, and in readership (about a 40% increase in each).



  • The Big Five Trads seem to have lost some considerable ground (17 fewer titles in the Top 100) to smaller Trads (up 10 titles) and Indies (up 7 titles).  Readership for the Big Five was up 18%, while it was up over 300% for smaller Trads and 40% for Indies.  Hachette and Random House lost the most ground, relatively speaking.



  • The Big Five still predominate at the top of the list, but the smaller Trads made big inroads in all four quartiles, in both titles and readership .  Indies have come to dominate the bottom quartile now, though they have some representation in the higher ranks as well.



  • There is some evidence that the Power Law function flattened between 2013 and 2014, that is it was less hit-driven.  It is worth noting that the top book of 2014 did not stand out from the pack in nearly the same way that it did in 2013.



  • The proportion of women writers slipped a bit from 2013 to 2014, with most of that slippage being in the Big Five Trads.  However, females had more readers per title than males.



  •  Indie writers in the Top 100 were mostly female in 2013, but in 2014 they were exclusively female.



  • The Big Five Trads appear to be following a two track pricing strategy, aiming to dominate the high end and competing ferociously in the low end.  Their readership was up substantially in those price ranges, but collapsed in the middle price range.  Indies continue to sell at lower price points. 



  • Though smaller Trads were more evenly spread out, a case could be made that publishers are deserting the middle ground.  Perhaps this is further evidence in favor of Thomas Piketty's thesis of the disappearing middle class, being played out on a smaller scale.



  • The most popular Kindle books are still almost exclusively fiction, Indie or Trad.  This held true in 2014 and 2015.  Readership growth was about the same in both groups, when expressed as a year over year percentage.



  • The highest selling Indies were almost all in the Romance category, in 2014.  The Big Five Trads, on the other hand, lost ground in the Romance category.  Trads still dominate Thrillers and Literary Fiction.  Readership for Literary Fiction was up dramatically.  Thrilller/Suspense also saw good gains, while Romance lagged overall.




 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Details, Part 1

Recently, Amazon released lists of its 100 top selling new titles for 2014.  Last year, I analyzed the 2013 list, so this year I will do the same.  I will also compare and contrast the two lists, to see what has changed from then until now. 
 
In this blog, I will be looking at Amazon Kindle sales, as best as we can estimate that number.  We have to estimate sales numbers via some other measure, since Amazon doesn’t actually list sales, just sales rank.  The measure to which we do have access is the number of reviews that a book received.  We will use that number to estimate sales, assuming that a fairly constant proportion of purchasers eventually review books.  Therefore, the estimated sales will be the number of reviews divided by the proportion that we use to estimate reviews per hundred sales.  For example, if a book had 500 reviews and we estimated that 0.5% of purchasers became reviewers (one out of every 200 readers), then the sales estimate would be 500/.005 = 100,000.  

That’s the constant I will use in this blog (one review per 200 readers), though it could well be higher or lower.  Since the main purpose of the blog is to compare year over year trends and to examine results by category (e.g. Trads vs Indies), the absolute numbers (while they would be nice to know) are less important than the comparatives. 

So, what is my basis for this 1 in 200 reviews to readers ratio?


  • Personal experience from Dodecahedron Books, where the proportion of reviews to sales seems to hang about the low percentage range.
  • An analysis of Joe Konrath’s sales figures (that he thoughtfully provided on his blog last year) comparing his sales to the number of reviews posted on Amazon for those books this week.  It turns out that the reviews to sales percentage was about 0.3% on average for all titles, which evidently included a fairly large proportion of free downloads.  For the titles that sold at higher price points (calculated by taking dollars and dividing by sales), the reviews to sales proportion was more like about 1%.
  • On the various blogs that I have read, the figures of 0.5% (one in 200) to 1% (one in 100) seem to be pretty typical reports by self-publishers (for example, Kindleboards has had several threads on the subject, which tend towards the 1% figure for paid downloads).
  • Using the top selling book in the Top 100 Kindle books (Grisham’s Gray Mountain), these proportions seem reasonable,  about 1.3 million copies sold and about $12.8 million revenue (at the posted price of $9.99).
 
For detailed information on the categorizations of “Trad” vs “Indie” publishers, see Part 1 of this series of blogs.  Basically, Traditional publishers (Trads) are large or mid-sized corporations while Indies are very small publishers or self-publishers.



Results

Overall, by Publisher Type

Let’s look at some results.   Perhaps the most interesting result is that the number of reviews that readers submitted for books in the Amazon Top 100 increased substantially from 2013 to 2014 (up 47%).  There has been a lot of talk about e-book readership plateauing, but from this data that doesn’t seem to be the case.  People appear to be increasing their consumption of e-books.  Though this only compares the top 100 books from year to year, given the power law nature of book sales, this would likely be true for books farther down the  list, as well. 

As we can see, the big publishing houses (BPH) had a significant fall-off in numbers of titles in the Top 100, from 2013 to 2014 (-23%).  However, they increased their numbers of reviews, and of course their imputed readership (18%).   The smaller Trads (BPH-S) more than doubled their share of the titles in the top 100 and more than tripled their readership, as estimated by review.  Indies increased their number of titles in the list and their readership proportionately, at about 40%.
 


 
Titles, Reviews and Imputed Readership

Count of Title
Num Amazon Reviews
Est Num Readers
Publisher1
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
BPH
73
56
119,529
141,595
23,905,800
28,319,000
BPH-S
9
19
13,876
56,149
2,775,200
11,229,800
Indie
18
25
19,753
27,463
3,950,600
5,492,600
Grand Total
100
100
153,158
225,207
30,631,600
45,041,400


Year to Year Change

Count of Title
Num Amazon Reviews
Est Num Readers
Publisher1
Diff
Pct Diff
Diff
Pct Diff
Diff
Pct Diff
BPH
-17
-23%
22,066
18%
4,413,200
18%
BPH-S
10
111%
42,273
305%
8,454,600
305%
Indie
7
39%
7,710
39%
1,542,000
39%
Grand Total


72,049
47%
14,409,800
47%

 
By Publisher
In terms of individual publishing companies, it would appear that Hachette and Random House lost readership, while Simon and Shuster was about even and Penguin and Harper Collins gained.  In the smaller traditional publisher category, the big winner was Amazon, via its several imprints.  This data might shed a bit more light on some of the underlying dynamics of the Hachette-Amazon negotiations of the past year.


Titles, Reviews and Imputed Readership


Count of Title
Num Amazon Reviews
Est Num Readers
Publisher1
Publisher2
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
BPH
Hachette
19
13
28,441
23,265
5,688,200
4,653,000

Harper Collins
4
5
6,674
10,535
1,334,800
2,107,000

Penguin
20
19
33,219
56,630
6,643,800
11,326,000

Random House
15
9
26,947
26,100
5,389,400
5,220,000

Simon & Schuster
15
10
24,248
25,065
4,849,600
5,013,000
BPH Total
73
56
119,529
141,595
23,905,800
28,319,000
BPH-S
Amazon
3
9
3,417
22,966
683,400
4,593,200

Ballentine

1

1,779

355,800

Delacorte

1

6,547

1,309,400

Disney

1

2,166

433,200

Doubleday
1
1
2,852
6,431
570,400
1,286,200

Harlequin
2
1
1,547
560
309,400
112,000

Harvard University Press

1

1,367

273,400

MacMillan
1
2
2,896
8,348
579,200
1,669,600

Mariner Books
1

1,436

287,200


Putnam-Adult

1

3,636

727,200

William Morrow
1

1,728

345,600


WW Norton

1

2,349

469,800
BPH-S Total
9
19
13,876
56,149
2,775,200
11,229,800
Indie
Indie
18
25
19,753
27,463
3,950,600
5,492,600
Indie Total
18
25
19,753
27,463
3,950,600
5,492,600
Grand Total
100
100
153,158
225,207
30,631,600
45,041,400

 
Ranking Quartile, by Publisher Type
The tables below shows how well each publisher type did, by ranking quartile.  Generally speaking, readership was up about the same amount in Quartiles 1, 2 and 4 (about 30%-40%).  Quartile 3 showed a larger gain, nearly doubling.   That would imply that there was some gain in readership further down the distribution, for a somewhat flatter power law.   This supports the theory that the increasing access to books is leading to an increasingly flat power law in the market – i.e. not so “hit driven”.

There was a lot of variability among the publisher types when looking at year to year readership by quartile; no strong trend seems to be visible.


Titles, Reviews and Imputed Readership


Count of Title
Num Amazon Reviews
Est Num Readers
Publisher1
Quartile
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
BPH
1
20
20
61,224
70,511
12,244,800
14,102,200

2
21
15
28,144
28,177
5,628,800
5,635,400

3
16
15
15,290
33,286
3,058,000
6,657,200

4
16
6
14,871
9,621
2,974,200
1,924,200
BPH Total
73
56
119,529
141,595
23,905,800
28,319,000
BPH-S
1
1
3
2,852
16,614
570,400
3,322,800

2
2
5
4,417
13,803
883,400
2,760,600

3
3
5
4,106
9,582
821,200
1,916,400

4
3
6
2,501
16,150
500,200
3,230,000
BPH-S Total
9
19
13,876
56,149
2,775,200
11,229,800
Indie
1
4
2
5,930
6,586
1,186,000
1,317,200

2
2
5
1,855
6,455
371,000
1,291,000

3
6
5
6,739
8,451
1,347,800
1,690,200

4
6
13
5,229
5,971
1,045,800
1,194,200
Indie Total
18
25
19,753
27,463
3,950,600
5,492,600
Grand Total
100
100
153,158
225,207
30,631,600
45,041,400
All
1
25
25
70,006
93,711
14,001,200
18,742,200

2
25
25
34,416
48,435
6,883,200
9,687,000

3
25
25
26,135
51,319
5,227,000
10,263,800

4
25
25
22,601
31,742
4,520,200
6,348,400
Grand Total
100
100
153,158
225,207
30,631,600
45,041,400

 
Year to Year Change
Publisher1
Quartile
Diff
Pct Diff
Diff
Pct Diff
Diff
Pct Diff
BPH
1
0
0%
9,287
15%
1,857,400
15%

2
-6
-29%
33
0%
6,600
0%

3
-1
-6%
17,996
118%
3,599,200
118%

4
-10
-63%
-5,250
-35%
-1,050,000
-35%
BPH Total
-17
-23%
22,066
18%
4,413,200
18%
BPH-S
1
2
200%
13,762
483%
2,752,400
483%

2
3
150%
9,386
212%
1,877,200
212%

3
2
67%
5,476
133%
1,095,200
133%

4
3
100%
13,649
546%
2,729,800
546%
BPH-S Total
10
111%
42,273
305%
8,454,600
305%
Indie
1
-2
-50%
656
11%
131,200
11%

2
3
150%
4,600
248%
920,000
248%

3
-1
-17%
1,712
25%
342,400
25%

4
7
117%
742
14%
148,400
14%
Indie Total
7
39%
7,710
39%
1,542,000
39%
Grand Total
0
0%
72,049
47%
14,409,800
47%
All
1
0
0%
23,705
34%
4,741,000
34%

2
0
0%
14,019
41%
2,803,800
41%

3
0
0%
25,184
96%
5,036,800
96%

4
0
0%
9,141
40%
1,828,200
40%
Grand Total
0
0%
72,049
47%
14,409,800
47%




Note that the red line has a less steep slope than the blue line (the smaller exponent in the functional form in the red equation in the upper region of the graph indicates this – it isn’t easy to see by eye).




Gender, by Publisher Type

Looking at the gender of the writers, we see that female writers continued to make up the majority of writers in the Amazon Top 100, though they fell from 70% of the total in 2013 to 64% in 2014.   Though the number of titles written by females went down (-9%), their readership was up substantially (43%).   Males had a 20% increase in titles and a 52% increase in readership.

Readers per title were up for both males (up 27%) and females (56%).  So, as you can see, though females slipped a bit in the number of books in the top 100, they increased their readership per book substantially more than male writers did.



Titles, Reviews and Imputed Readership


Count of Title
Num Amaz Reviews
Est Num Readers
Publisher1
WriterSex
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
BPH
Female
49
27
68,277
67,714
13,655,400
13,542,800

Male
24
29
51,252
73,881
10,250,400
14,776,200
BPH Total
73
56
119,529
141,595
23,905,800
28,319,000
BPH-S
Female
6
12
6,692
31,608
1,338,400
6,321,600

Male
3
7
7,184
24,541
1,436,800
4,908,200
BPH-S Total
9
19
13,876
56,149
2,775,200
11,229,800
Indie
Female
15
25
13,614
27,463
2,722,800
5,492,600

Male
3

6,139

1,227,800

Indie Total
18
25
19,753
27,463
3,950,600
5,492,600
Grand Total
100
100
153,158
225,207
30,631,600
45,041,400
All
Female
70
64
88,583
126,785
17,716,600
25,357,000

Male
30
36
64,575
98,422
12,915,000
19,684,400
Grand Total
100
100
153,158
225,207
30,631,600
45,041,400

Year to Year Change


Count of Title
Num Amaz Reviews
Est Num Readers
Publisher1
WriterSex
Diff
Pct Diff
Diff
Pct Diff
Diff
Pct Diff
BPH
Female
-22
-45%
-563
-1%
-112,600
-1%

Male
5
21%
22,629
44%
4,525,800
44%
BPH Total
-17
-23%
22,066
18%
4,413,200
18%
BPH-S
Female
6
100%
24,916
372%
4,983,200
372%

Male
4
133%
17,357
242%
3,471,400
242%
BPH-S Total
10
111%
42,273
305%
8,454,600
305%
Indie
Female
10
67%
13,849
102%
2,769,800
102%

Male
-3
-100%
-6,139
-100%
-1,227,800
-100%
Indie Total
7
39%
7,710
39%
1,542,000
39%
Grand Total
0
0%
72,049
47%
14,409,800
47%
All
Female
-6
-9%
38,202
43%
7,640,400
43%

Male
6
20%
33,847
52%
6,769,400
52%
Grand Total
0
0%
72,049
47%
14,409,800
47%

 



No comments:

Post a Comment