My response to a Quora question:
Is there a model that can
predict when to ease Covid-19 restrictions?
Personally,
I think a good model is to examine the graph of new cases per day. Ideally, you
will see a rise, followed by a plateau, followed by a drop back to near zero.
You can then do a forward projection to get an idea of when the county is
likely to be “mostly free” of the contagion. Note that this is just simple
excel modelling, but sometimes simple models are surprisingly useful and
insightful.
Here is
China and Italy, graphed that way (China is probably over at least the first
phase of the outbreak, Italy is nearing that condition).
As you
can see, the U.S. is still far from this point, so it is probably still too early
for them to ease off (China is in blue, the U.S. in grey).
That said,
the U.S. is such a big, politically open country that the epidemic there is
likely to be a series of local epidemics, and therefore it is harder to have a
really effective nation-wide control and lock-down. It may be impractical to
maintain a lock-down for the amount of time required. China probably fared
better, as they had an earlier start on the lock-down in their country and a
relatively closed authoritarian state has much for scope for controlling travel
within its own borders.
You can
do this for any country, though obviously different norms in reporting will
complicate the analysis. Still, I find it surprisingly useful.
And, here’s a more pleasant travel story than anticipating the worldwide
journey of a virus. Perhaps after lock-downs are over, you can visit this intriguing region.
A Drive Across Newfoundland
Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B07NMR9WM8
Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B07NMR9WM8
Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is both
fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of stark beauty.
The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known for steep cliffs and
crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist too). The inland areas are
primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by forests, rivers, rock formations, and
abundant wildlife. The province also features some of the Earth’s most
remarkable geology, notably The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the
Earth’s interior have been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an
almost alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered
regions of the planet.
The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban areas, with
a population that maintains many old traditions and cultural aspects of the
British Isles. That’s true of the rest of the province, as well, where the
people are friendly and inclined to chat amiably with visitors. Plus, they talk
with amusing accents and party hard, so what’s not to like?
This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.
This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.
