University
of Alberta Talk: Renewable Energy – the German Experience (the“Energiewende”)
This talk
was actually delivered early in 2016 (March 16, 2016), though I have only
gotten around to writing it up recently.
I suppose that says something about my own renewable energy, or lack
thereof, at times.
At any
rate, this interesting talk focussed on the experience of Germany, in its
efforts to transform to a renewable, sustainable energy regime, known in German
as the “Energiewende”. The talk was
given by Prof. Ralf Ludwig of Ludwig Maximillian University, in Germany. He is a hydro-geologist, rather than an
engineer, but as he said, the energy transition has percolated throughout the
German economy and academy. Mind you,
hydrogeology has some fairly obvious applications in the world of energy and
particularly renewable energy.
Reasons for the Policy
He stated
these as the primary reasons for the German Energiewende:
- The
nuclear phase-out, related to the nuclear accidents in Japan and the earlier
accident in the Ukraine.
- The
need to reduce import dependency. I have
heard Europeans repeat this one a number of times. They seem much more concerned about depending
on geopolitically risky fossil fuel sources, such as Russia and the Middle East
than we do, here in North America. Mind
you, we have enough of our own fossil fuel supplies (though they are somewhat
more expensive), that we can do without these sources, in a pinch.
- Climate
change. Europeans seem to have fewer
sceptics on the subject, than we do here in North America. That is probably related to the fact that
they don’t have as much vested interests in the domestic fossil fuel industry,
as we do.
- The
need to develop new technology, and stay at the front of the innovation wave.
- Generally,
they want to demonstrate that a sustainable economy is possible.
Pillars of the Policy
There are
two pillars to the German energy transition, renewable energy and
efficiency. The focus of his talk was on
the renewable energy pillar.
The German
goal is to have 60% of energy produced by renewable resources, by 2050. This
should also correspond to a 80-90% reduction in greenhouse gas generation,
notably CO2. For context, it should be
noted that 27% of electricity is currently generated by renewables (this
actually relates to 2014, so it might be higher now), but the 60% renewable
target includes all energy, not just the replacement of current electrical
generation (i.e. transportation and heating energy are also to be replaced by
renewables).
An
important part of the strategy has been the use of feed-in tariffs, for
renewable electrical energy.
Essentially, this means encouraging solar and wind power via paying
higher electrical rates to producers who use these methods. This strategy has been highly successful
(almost too much so, he says). Some
features of the strategy:
- Fixed
prices (so that producers can budget and plan).
- Guaranteed
grid access (so that producers can be assured of a market).
- The
strategy is modifiable, as technology changes (e.g. more efficient solar panels).
- The
effect on non-renewable sources can be offset by other charges, when it is
deemed desirable.
- Energy
intensive industries can get a break on the higher prices during the
transition, so as not to harm them unduly.
As noted
above, about 27% of electricity was generated by renewables in 2014. That represents an increase of about 10
times, over the 1990s, so the growth has been substantial.
Solar and
wind have been the main renewable suppliers. The type of resource being
developed has been optimized for local conditions, with wind prevailing at the
coast, and solar in the south (Bavaria).
It is estimated that this transition has prevented 102 mega-tonnes of
C02 from being produced.
There has
been a movement towards small-scale energy production and distribution during
the Energiewende. Cooperative ownership
models have helped in convincing citizens to buy in to the program. Whole villages are sometimes involved in the cooperatives,
for example. Often, the sources are
owned 50% or more, by local people.
Generally speaking, there is wide acceptance of the policy in Germany,
though naturally, there are some NIMBY (not in my back yard) elements.
Myths
He noted
some popular myths about the transition, and gave some clarity on those myths:
·
Myth
1 - It is an irrational response to the Japanese Fukushima nuclear disaster.
o
No,
the roots of the program go long before that, with various strong concerns
about the environment and energy security being motivators.
·
Myth
2 - it is immensely expensive.
o
Yes,
it has been costly, but it has also generated substantial economic
benefits. For example, solar is now a
significant industry, which didn’t exist previously. About 400,000 jobs have been created around
Germany in renewables, and they have been widely distributed around the
country, rather than benefitting only a few regions. Import substitution has also been a major
benefit, in terms of trade and geopolitical security (Russian gas has been
displaced, for example).
·
Myth
3 - the nuclear shutdown has created the need for imports.
o
To
some extent true, though it is a temporary situation. In fact, Germany is now exporting
electricity.
·
Myth
4 - there would be power outages.
o
This
never happened (in fact, Canada has had more problems than Germany, in this regard).
·
Myth
5 - Germany would have to increase its coal usage.
o
This
was temporary, during the turn away from nuclear. Coal usage is now back to historical
lows. In fact, though some coal power is
still being produced, that is now going down, even below historical lows.
Problems that have been
Encountered
Obviously,
no policy of this significance can be problem-free, so here are some of the
problems that Professor Ludwig noted:
- These
technologies are intermittent by their nature (wind doesn’t always blow, and
sun doesn’t always shine), so the problem of grid stability is ever present.
- There
are environmental impacts, such as:
o
Toxic
waste in producing solar panels, etc.
o
Land
use conflicts, since solar and wind do need land bases, and hydro often means flooding
(Germany has developed more hydro in some areas).
o
Resources
are consumed, for example in the building of panels.
o
There
are potential health issues, such as noise from wind generators that are placed
too close to human habitations.
- There
can be a “status quo” threat, that inhibits public acceptance. That can be by other producers, consumers or
bystander parties.
- Costs
can be higher, compared to alternatives.
For example, 44 cents per KwHr is common in Germany, whereas about 12
cents per KwHr is more the norm in Edmonton (in Alberta, Canada, which is a
fossil fuel rich province). Note that
this is “all-in” costs; production, distribution, etc.
- With
less “base load” production, power generation can fluctuate more, due to the
variation in wind-speed and sunshine (though these tend to even out over longer
time spans and distances).
- This
can also create some unbalanced loads, in terms of regional usage and regional
demand.
- New,
smart infrastructure is needed (e.g. to distributed power more efficiently) but
there is often resistance to big power lines and the like.
- Climate
change can adversely effect renewables, such as low water levels reducing hydro
power.
Overall Conclusions
·
The
program is well established.
·
It
will probably hit its targets.
·
There
will be many benefits.
·
The
German economy will benefit, by being a first mover in renewable energy
innovation.
·
Germany
will be a lesson and guide for other countries.
·
With
Germany’s issues around energy security and environmental problems, there is
really no alternative.
·
From
Alberta’s standpoint, there is a rich history of Alberta-German collaboration
in industry and the academy, and that collaboration can grow and prosper via
the energy transformation in both areas.
Here's a link to the German Energy Transition site, with lots more information:
http://energytransition.de/
=====================================================================
And now, here's a link to some science fiction (because we can't be reading about renewable energy all the time), the universe of Kati of Terra:
Kati 1 - Escape from the Drowned Planet
Kati and Mikal's escape from the alien slaver Gorsh.
Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00811WVXO
Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00811WVXO
Kati 2 - On Assignment on the Planet of the Exalted
Kati and Mikal follow the trail of justice to the planet Vultaire.
Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00D0H15CC
Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00D0H15CC
Kati 3 - Showdown on the Planet of the Slavers
Kati and Mikal must battle Gorsh on his home turf.
Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00KHBN8FG
Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00KHBN8FG
