Covid-19 Cases by Continent (Jan 2020 to July 2021)

 Covid-19 Cases by Continent (Jan 2020 to July 2021)

With the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines now being underway in many countries, it seems like a good time to have a large-scale retrospective look at how the pandemic developed in various parts of the world.  There are many ways to categorize the world, each with their own advantages and disadvantages, but the continental scale is a fairly natural choice to make.  So, I propose to use that perspective in the graphs and text below.

This blog will look at case counts.  A later blog will look at deaths and case fatality rates.

This will be primarily a descriptive analysis for now, at the continent level.  Later I will try some correlations and cluster analysis (i.e. what variables correlate with high case counts or generate clusters (groups with similarity) at the continental and/or national level.

Aggregate Cases

Raw Numbers of Aggregate Cases

Here is a graph of the aggregate number of cases, at different points in time, for the different continents.  Note that this graph has not been normalized for population or any other relevant factors, it just shows the total number of cases.  Further on, that will be normalized by population.

 

The graph indicates that Asia has had the most cases, followed by fairly closely by Europe and North America.  South America is mid-way down the graph, while Africa and Austalasa have had relatively low case counts.  In fact, Africa and Australasia have gotten off pretty lightly so far; whether that will continue is still to be seen.

The classic sigmoid, or S-shapted curve, of Europe and North America indicate that the pandemic is near its end in those areas, short of a new variant that is not affected by the current vaccines.  The continuing upslope of the other regions indicate that the virus still has a substantial uninfected and unvaccinated pool of potential hosts there.

Of course it should be noted that there is a good deal of uncertainty in these numbers, due to differences in reporting standards and levels of economic development.  Nonetheless the big picture view seems to be valid.

Aggregate Cases per Million Population

 

Of course, case counts alone don’t tell the whole story.  Naturally regions with larger populations will have higher case counts, all things being equal.  But the evidence is that not all things are equal.  When an adjustment for population is made (expressing the data as Cases per Million Population), things are quite different:

• The data clearly breaks into two or three groups: South America/North America/Europe and Asia/Africa/Australasia. In the latter case, Asia might be considered its own group.
• The members of the first group had quite similar trajectories, until spring of 2021, when the European and North American count increase decelerated, while the South American case count continued on a linear path.
•  As noted, Asia has broken away from the latter group, and can probably be considered its own group.
•  Africa and Australasia both maintained a very low trajectory, with Africa being the slightly higher of the two.

 

Case Count per Day within Specified Time Periods

Raw Numbers of per Interval

Here’s a graph, looking at case counts during particular intervals. 

 

 Some observations:

·       Asia was hit early, peaking in late 2020, then beginning a decline which was interrupted by a new wave in spring 2021

·       Europe was also hit early, plateaued for a while, then rose quickly and peaked in early 2021.  It then came down steadily.

·       North America had numbers similar to Asia at the start, but then shot up in a similar matter to Europe, peaked in early 2021 and fell off thereafter.

·       South America’s path was similar to North America up until Autumn of 2020, then plateaued at that middle-high level and stayed there.

·       Africa remained at relatively low level for the duration, compared to the other large continents.

·       Australasia’s case count barely shows up at this scale, a result of both low counts and a low population.

Cases per Day During Specified Intervals

Here’s a graph, looking at case counts during particular intervals.  Note that the data is transformed into cases per day, during the given intervals, as the length of the intervals in the underlying data were different (I did more frequent data extracts at some times than others).  Also note that the numbers refer to the interval between the date under the data point and the previous date – for example the points above the label “July-01-21” refers to the interval between the beginning of June and the beginning of July 2021.

 This gives a much clearer and more detailed picture of the course of the pandemic in the various regions:

• Asia was hit early, eventually peaking in Dec2020/Jan2021, then beginning a decline.  However, it was then hit by a second major wave during the spring and early summer of 2021.  That wave was the highest that any region recorded.  The worst of it now seems to be over, but time will tell.
•  Europe was also hit early, plateauing for a while, then increasing quickly and eventually peaking in January 2021.  It then came down steadily and has now arrived at relatively low numbers, about the same as at the beginning of the pandemic.
•  North America had an experience that was similar to Asia at the beginning (rising steadily until November), but was more like Europe thereafter (shooting up in the fall and peaking in January 2021).  Case counts then began to fall, especially in early spring and have now reached low levels, similar to Europe.  It was a little quicker on the downside, probably because of an earlier, more effective vaccine rollout.
•  South America’s path was similar to North America up until Autumn of 2020, when the latter had its big rise.  South America then plateaued at that middle-high level and has stayed there since.
•  Africa has remained at relatively low levels for the duration, compared to the other large continents.  However, there was an uptick during June 2021, which bears watching.
•  Australasia’s case count barely shows up at this scale, a result of both low counts and a low population.

 

Case Count per Million Population per Day within Specific Time Periods

 

As with the aggregate counts, expressing the numbers as Cases per Million Population brings out some very different aspects of the world-wide pandemic:

•  Asia actually had rather low case counts per million population for most of the pandemic period.  It had a fairly large uptick in spring 2021, but that still was fairly minor compared to most other regions.
•  Europe really got hit quite badly overall, but the really big pandemic didn’t start until autumn 2020.  It then exploded, peaked in early 2021 and fell off steadily throughout 2010, to what now seem to be relatively low levels.
•  North America had an experience broadly similar to Europe, though it did get hit earlier, peaked at a higher rate, then fell off more quickly.
•  South America had a steady increase throughout the pandemic period, and still hasn’t peaked.  Its numbers are now at about the same level as those of North America and Europe, when they peaked.
•  Africa has not been hit very hard at all.
• The same is true of Austalasia.
  

Summary Comments

It seems to me that the most interesting finding is in the second graph, which I am repeating below. 

 

 That graph clearly showed a geographical clustering into highly affected and relatively unaffected regions, with Asia being somewhat intermediate (though still much lower than the highly affected regions).

·       In some ways this looks like an “Old World” vs “New World” effect.  Perhaps it reflects the fact that populations in the New World had less exposure to the virus or to some precursor virus that gave relative immunity to the Old World populations.  However, the inclusion of Europe in the new world group and Australasia in the old world group cloud that picture.

·       The other possibility is an East vs West effect. In that case, any precursor virus might have given immunity to those in the eastern part of Eurasia but not in the western part or in the New World.  The Caucasus mountain ranges do present a fairly formidable natural barrier.

·       It could also represent a split between highly globalized parts of the world (in the sense of large scale tourism, business travel and migration) and less globalized parts.  That has some merit, though one doesn’t necessarily think of South America as being more highly globalized than Asia.

·       The timing of events do tend to support the globalization hypothesis, with Asia (apparently the originating region) being hit first, though not all that hard, then the virus spreading to the highly globalized regions of Europe and North America (where it had a much greater effect) and finally slowly spreading to South America.  The recent upticks in Africa and Australasia (relatively isolated regions) are consistent with that hypothesis (i.e. less globalized areas get hit later), though they are still far too small to be definitive.

·       There may be some sort of genetic effect at work, as it seems to have hit areas with significant Indo-European populations hardest of all.  However, within these regions, there were no strong genetic differences between ancestry groups, as far as I know, so that weakens the case that there is a significant genetic dynamic at work.

In a subsequent blog, I will have a look at the differences in Covid deaths and Case Fatality Rates among the continents of the world.  

Sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data/vaccinations

Some earlier Covid-19 blogs:

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/06/covid19-vaccines-effect-on-case.html Alberta Covid19 Vaccines Effect on Cases and Deaths by Age – The Oldsters are Alright, the Kids not so Much

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid19-vaccines-effect-on-case.html  Covid19 Vaccines Effect on Case Fatality Rates – Suddenly, then Gradually

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/04/excess-deaths-vs-covid-19-deaths.html  Excess Deaths vs Covid-19 Deaths

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-positive-results-from.html  Covid-19 Vaccines, Positive Results from Alberta Canada

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-how-successfully-are.html   Covid-19 Vaccines (March 2021 Data) – How Successful are they in Bringing Cases and Deaths Down

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/12/covid-19-vaccines-comparison-of.html  Covid-19 Vaccines – Comparison of Effectiveness, with Confidence Intervals

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/09/covid-19-continues-to-travel-around.html  Covid-19 Continues to Travel Around the World but Becomes Less Deadly While Doing So

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/has-covid-19-become-less-deadly.html    Covid-19 – Is it Now a Casedemic?

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/july-2020-update-covid-19-death-rates.html  July 2020 Update: Covid-19 Death Rates Correlate Highly with a Country’s Level of Globalization

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/05/covid-19-death-rates-correlate-highly.html    Covid-19 Death Rates Correlate Highly with a Country’s Level of Globalization

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-impact-on-employment-no-impact.html  Covid-19 Impact on Employment: No Impact, Work at Home, or Laid Off (A Statistical Analysis)

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-there-model-that-can-predict-when-to.html  Is there a model that can predict when to ease Covid-19 restrictions?

·       https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/03/estimating-fatality-rate-of-coronavirus.html    Estimating the Fatality Rate of the Coronavirus, from Time Series Correlation Analysis (Update March 5, 2020)

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And, here’s a more pleasant travel story than anticipating the worldwide journey of a virus.

A Drive Across Newfoundland

 

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Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known for steep cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist too). The inland areas are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by forests, rivers, rock formations, and abundant wildlife. The province also features some of the Earth’s most remarkable geology, notably The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the Earth’s interior have been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an almost alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered regions of the planet.

The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban areas, with a population that maintains many old traditions and cultural aspects of the British Isles. That’s true of the rest of the province, as well, where the people are friendly and inclined to chat amiably with visitors. Plus, they talk with amusing accents and party hard, so what’s not to like?

This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.

A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail: A Biking Journal Kindle Edition

by Dale Olausen (Author), Helena Puumala (Editor)

The Kettle Valley Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic biking and hiking trails in Canada. It covers a good stretch of the south-central interior of British Columbia, about 600 kilometers of scenic countryside. British Columbia is one of the most beautiful areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country, ideal for those who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in the great outdoors.

The trail passes through a great variety of geographical and geological regions, from mountains to valleys, along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry near-desert condition grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned by a combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes through wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite low, in populated valleys, alongside spectacular water features such as beautiful Lake Okanagan, an area that is home to hundreds of vineyards, as well as other civilized comforts.

The trail is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits and adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness. The views are spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people are friendly. What more could one ask for?

What follows is a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail in the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours reading), and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are also sections containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora and fauna, and associated information.

After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it will be an experience you will never forget.

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On the Road with Bronco Billy

Spring is on us now, and that brings on thoughts of ROAD TRIP.  Sure, it is still a bit early, but you can still start making plans for your next road trip with help of “On the Road with Bronco Billy”.  Sit back and go on a ten day trucking trip in a big rig, through western North America, from Alberta to Texas, and back again.  Explore the countryside, learn some trucking lingo, and observe the shifting cultural norms across this great continent.  Then, come spring, try it out for yourself.

 

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Amazon Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK

Amazon Canada: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK