Excess Deaths vs Covid-19 Deaths
The question sometimes comes up, “Are Covid deaths actually being counted correctly?”. That can be motivated by various concerns, from the technical aspects concerning the uncertainty in accurately determining and recording the cause of death, to the more “out-there” notion that the Covid pandemic is some kind of elaborate hoax.
One way to examine this question is to look at the “excess deaths” that have occurred since the Covid pandemic was declared and compare those numbers to the number of Covid deaths being claimed. The idea is that the excess deaths and the Covid deaths should be about the same in most countries, especially if any other unusual reasons for excess deaths have been accounted for.
It turns out that there is a highly reputable source for the excess deaths figures on the web (The Human Mortality Database), run by some researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and UC-Berkeley, among others (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/).
They have compiled mortality for a number of years in a number of countries (41 in all), mostly in the more economically advanced countries of the OECD. There is often some question about the accuracy in record keeping and reporting globally, but this set of countries should be expected by most people to keep good records and make unbiased reports, especially about such a fundamental demographic indicator as deaths.
They have also calculated age-adjusted expected mortality for 2020, based on the previous 4 to 5 years worth of mortality data for these countries. They are then able to compare the expected number of deaths to the actual number of deaths, to calculate the excess deaths for 2020 for each of these countries.
I used this data, as well as Covid deaths data from the Worldometers source, to see how the excess deaths numbers compare to the Covid deaths numbers on a country level basis. There is always some difficulty about using secondary data from different sources, but these sources seem reliable, so I think one can get a pretty good indication of the underlying reality of the situation, though there could be some debate about details.
Graph 1 shows a scatterplot of the Age-adjusted Excess Deaths (x-axis) from the human mortality database versus the number of Covid-related deaths from the Worldometer database (y-axis), at the country level. In all cases, the figures are calculated on a per 100,000 basis.
If all age-adjusted excess deaths were due to Covid, we would expect the data points to fall along the orange dotted line (granted, that’s a very naive assumption, one should always expect some deviation). They don’t, though the general trend of the data isn’t all that far from the orange line, as you can see from the graph.
Graph 1
Some countries have reported more Covid deaths than would be expected from the excess death calculations (e.g. Belgium and Italy). Others have reported substantially less Covid deaths than would be expected from their excess death calculation (e.g. Poland and U.K.). Others have even reported negative excess deaths but positive Covid deaths (interestingly, those are mostly Nordic European countries). Overall, though, the blue regression line for the actual data isn't rotated by very much from the theoretical orange dotted line.
Another way to summarize that data is to calculate the
average (Expected Age-standardized Mortality + Covid Deaths) to the average
(Actual Age-standardized Mortality) for the entire set of countries, and compare
these averages. Note that this is an unweighted country-level average, rather than an average that is weighted by population. In that sense, its emphasis is on exploring variations in reporting between countries. A population-weighted average would likely yield somewhat different results.
For this set of countries, The Human Mortality Database gives an Expected Age-standardized Mortality of about 1046 per 100,000 and an Actual Age-standardized Mortality of about 1104, for an excess of about 58 deaths per 100,000 in 2020. The Worldometer data, on the other hand, gives about 70 Covid deaths per 100,000 people for this set of countries. Rearranging these numbers a bit, and plotting them, gives Graph 2.
Graph 2
Putting this in words:
· Using an age-standardized population, based on past trends, a death rate of 1.05% is expected.
· If Covid was responsible for all excess deaths (adding these deaths to the age-standardized rates above) a death rate of 1.12% would be expected.
· The actual death rate was 1.10%.
· Thus, there were fewer excess deaths than would be expected (0.02%) from assuming that excess deaths were almost all Covid related.
Those numbers aren’t that far apart, so it does look like Covid has had a substantial impact on death rates. However, there does appear to be more Covid deaths being reported than can be explained by the excess deaths.
Some possible reasons for this come to mind for this somewhat counter-intuitive result:
· Covid deaths almost always have some type of co-morbidity involved (i.e. another underlying disease or health problem). So, there could be some percentage of these reported Covid deaths that would have happened anyway, due to the co-morbidities, and thus some double-counting.
· The Covid pandemic caused direct deaths but it may have also prevented deaths from other causes, such that the Covid deaths are higher than the excess deaths. That could be from any number of causes, attributable to the lockdowns, such as:
o fewer traffic accidents due to less driving,
o fewer homicides due to less alcohol consumption in bars,
o fewer drug overdoses, due to less socialization,
o less risky behaviour in general,
o fewer workplace deaths, due to reduced economic activity,
o fewer deaths related to adverse results of medical interventions, due to surgeries and other procedures being cancelled.
· Then, of course, there is always the possibility that there is something wrong with the data or with the calculations.
Sources:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data/vaccinations
Some earlier Covid-19 blogs:
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-positive-results-from.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-how-successfully-are.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/12/covid-19-vaccines-comparison-of.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/09/covid-19-continues-to-travel-around.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/has-covid-19-become-less-deadly.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/july-2020-update-covid-19-death-rates.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/05/covid-19-death-rates-correlate-highly.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-impact-on-employment-no-impact.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-there-model-that-can-predict-when-to.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/03/estimating-fatality-rate-of-coronavirus.html
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And, here’s a more pleasant travel story than anticipating the worldwide journey of a virus.
A Drive Across Newfoundland
U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07NMR9WM8
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Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B07NMR9WM8
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Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B07NMR9WM8
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India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B07NMR9WM8
Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known for steep cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist too). The inland areas are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by forests, rivers, rock formations, and abundant wildlife. The province also features some of the Earth’s most remarkable geology, notably The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the Earth’s interior have been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an almost alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered regions of the planet.
The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban
areas, with a population that maintains many old traditions and cultural
aspects of the British Isles. That’s true of the rest of the province, as well,
where the people are friendly and inclined to chat amiably with visitors. Plus,
they talk with amusing accents and party hard, so what’s not to like?
This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s
in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known
Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The
Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t
normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves
awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.
A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail: A Biking Journal Kindle Edition
by Dale Olausen(Author), Helena Puumala(Editor)
The Kettle Valley
Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic biking and hiking trails in
Canada. It covers a good stretch of the south-central interior of British
Columbia, about 600 kilometers of scenic countryside. British Columbia is one
of the most beautiful areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country,
ideal for those who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in
the great outdoors.
The trail passes through a great variety of geographical and geological
regions, from mountains to valleys, along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry
near-desert condition grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned
by a combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes through
wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite low, in populated
valleys, alongside spectacular water features such as beautiful Lake Okanagan,
an area that is home to hundreds of vineyards, as well as other civilized
comforts.
The trail is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits and
adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness. The views are
spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people are friendly. What more
could one ask for?
What follows is a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail
in the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours reading),
and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are also sections
containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora and fauna, and
associated information.
After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it will be an experience you will never forget.
Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01GBG8JE0
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On the Road with Bronco Billy
Amazon U.S.: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon U.K.: http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon Canada: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
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