Monkeypox vs Covid – The First 100 Days

The Covid-19 pandemic is apparently over (but maybe not, time will tell), but now comes Monkeypox. So, an obvious question that comes to mind is, how does the beginning of the global Monkeypox outbreak compare to the start of the global Covid outbreak? To that end, this essay has mined some data from Our World in Data to make these comparisons, along with making some reasonable assumptions to put them into perspective.

Straight-up Comparison

The graph below is a straight-up comparison of the raw data, for the first 100 days, of the course of the two outbreaks. Looking at it this way, there is little similarity between the two; Covid-19 was a much more extreme outbreak than Monkeypox has been, at least so far.

Adjustment for Uncertainty in Start Dates

One problem with this comparison, is that it is difficult to say just when the two outbreaks began. The first day of the published data for the Covid-19 outbreak has 557 cases listed, which is obviously wrong. On the other hand, the published data for the Monkeypox outbreak begins with only 1 case for the first two days, then jumps to 11 by the third day. (The raw data is shown at the end of the blog).

So, the data has been adjusted, imputing some new adjusted data, by back-extrapolating the first few days, via the use of a smooth power law function that fits the data rather well, after this early “scanty-data” period. The graphs below show how this was done (i.e. used the equations to calculate the earlier predicted points).

With these adjusted start dates, the new Covid vs Monkeypox graph is shown below. This closes up the comparison between the Covid and Monkeypox outbreaks somewhat, though the Covid numbers are still much higher than the Monkeypox numbers.

 

Adjustment for At-Risk Populations

The most recent evidence shows that the two pandemics have effected very different populations. Covid-19 was quite widespread, hitting all age groups and genders, though Covid had a tendency for severe outcomes (hospitalizations and deaths) to increase with age and it was somewhat more severe for males than females. But, in terms of cases, the entire population of a given country tended to be hit fairly equally.

On the other hand, Monkeypox was almost entirely confined to a small section of the population, which has described as “men who have sex with men” (MSM). So, a more appropriate comparison of the two outbreaks might be made by simulating Covid-19 data, as it would apply to that smaller part of the population.

To do this, a few assumptions have to be made:

• MSM are males.

• MSM make up about 3 percent of the male population, or about 1.5% of the population in general.

• MSM that are at risk of Monkeypox are mostly in the 20 to 59 age groups (presumably, the most sexually active group).

To adjust Covid-19 cases to simulate this sub-group, the numbers for the overall population were multiplied by 0.015, which produces the graph shown below.

This graph shows that once the differences in the at-risk populations are accounted for, the early stages of these outbreaks are rather similar. Making reasonable changes in the above assumptions will alter the graph to some extent, but this essential feature will remain true.

Another way to look at the situation is to simulate Monkeypox figures, as might be the case if the virus mutated into a form that spread through the air, in the manner of the corona virus that causes Covid-19. This can be done by dividing the Monkeypox data by 0.015, yielding the graph shown below.

 Although this graph has the same overall form of the previous one, it does emphasize that Monkeypox could have quite a Covid-like effect, if it was to evolve in this direction. Granted, that seems unlikely, as it is not an RNA-based virus, and thus should mutate at a much smaller rate than the SARS-2 Corona virus did.

Comparison of Deaths from Covid vs Monkeypox

So far, Monkeypox has had a very low fatality rate. As of the first 100 days, only about a dozen people were recorded as dying from Monkeypox, from a case count of over 35,000. So, that’s only about one per three thousand cases. Covid, on the other, had recorded about 240,000 fatalities by day 100. That’s a huge difference.

Or is it? Again, we have to account for the difference in at-risk populations:

• There were about 3.25 million Covid cases by Day 100.

• However, the MSM sub-group would only account for about 1.5% of these, or a bit under 41,000 cases.

• But in this age range (20-59) the case fatality rate was very low, at about 1.2 per thousand in many industrialized counties, the set that has been hit hardest by Monkeypox.

• So, that would imply about 49 fatalities in this particular sub-group of the population.

That’s about 4 times more fatalities than were seen in the Monkeypox group, implying that Covid-19 is probably more severe in its effects than Monkeypox, or at least it was in the early stages of the pandemic.

Nonetheless, it also implies that if Monkeypox were to become widespread in the overall population, the effects would be quite severe. Added to that, is the fact that Monkeypox has historically been much more severe in children than in other age groups.  So, a Monkeypox pandemic that included large numbers of children could be very tragic, indeed.

So, in summary, a widespread Monkeypox pandemic would be a bad thing, something that we definitely would want to avoid.

Source Data – From Our World in Data

Original Data			Start-Date Adjusted
Day	Covid-19	Monkeypox	Day	Covid-19	Monkeypox
1	557	1	1	1	1
2	657	1	2	4	2
3	944	11	3	14	3
4	1,437	11	4	37	5
5	2,120	11	5	82	8
6	2,929	11	6	160	13
7	5,580	12	7	284	18
8	6,169	13	8	557	26
9	8,237	13	9	657	36
10	9,927	17	10	944	41
11	12,038	17	11	1,437	60
12	16,787	20	12	2,120	105
13	19,887	41	13	2,929	121
14	23,899	60	14	5,580	121
15	27,644	105	15	6,169	194
16	30,806	121	16	8,237	230
17	34,400	121	17	9,927	274
18	37,131	194	18	12,038	362
19	40,162	230	19	16,787	414
20	42,771	274	20	19,887	431
21	44,814	362	21	23,899	451
22	45,232	414	22	27,644	574
23	60,384	431	23	30,806	639
24	66,912	451	24	34,400	723
25	69,055	574	25	37,131	848
26	71,238	639	26	40,162	942
27	73,273	723	27	42,771	950
28	75,155	848	28	44,814	1,057
29	75,655	942	29	45,232	1,172
30	76,216	950	30	60,384	1,322
31	76,846	1,057	31	66,912	1,419
32	78,608	1,172	32	69,055	1,565
33	78,990	1,322	33	71,238	1,608
34	79,558	1,419	34	73,273	1,617
35	80,412	1,565	35	75,155	1,731
36	81,384	1,608	36	75,655	1,791
37	82,728	1,617	37	76,216	2,035
38	84,152	1,731	38	76,846	2,182
39	86,023	1,791	39	78,608	2,558
40	88,402	2,035	40	78,990	2,752
41	90,382	2,182	41	79,558	2,757
42	92,994	2,558	42	80,412	2,764
43	95,316	2,752	43	81,384	3,058
44	98,027	2,757	44	82,728	3,340
45	101,957	2,764	45	84,152	3,514
46	106,088	3,058	46	86,023	4,072
47	109,942	3,340	47	88,402	4,276
48	114,265	3,514	48	90,382	4,288
49	119,051	4,072	49	92,994	4,484
50	126,527	4,276	50	95,316	4,871
51	133,283	4,288	51	98,027	5,219
52	146,477	4,484	52	101,957	5,372
53	157,365	4,871	53	106,088	6,179
54	168,598	5,219	54	109,942	6,448
55	183,165	5,372	55	114,265	6,492
56	198,339	6,179	56	119,051	6,532
57	215,899	6,448	57	126,527	7,026
58	242,986	6,492	58	133,283	7,473
59	272,516	6,532	59	146,477	7,705
60	304,943	7,026	60	157,365	8,395
61	339,156	7,473	61	168,598	9,455
62	381,711	7,705	62	183,165	9,577
63	423,596	8,395	63	198,339	9,604
64	475,075	9,455	64	215,899	10,195
65	535,890	9,577	65	242,986	11,067
66	599,820	9,604	66	272,516	11,485
67	669,402	10,195	67	304,943	12,096
68	725,918	11,067	68	339,156	12,984
69	790,929	11,485	69	381,711	13,000
70	869,371	12,096	70	423,596	13,038
71	951,084	12,984	71	475,075	13,855
72	1,033,528	13,000	72	535,890	15,049
73	1,117,697	13,038	73	599,820	15,623
74	1,177,956	13,855	74	669,402	16,263
75	1,250,135	15,049	75	725,918	16,983
76	1,324,652	15,623	76	790,929	16,987
77	1,393,480	16,263	77	869,371	17,021
78	1,475,476	16,983	78	951,084	18,307
79	1,562,248	16,987	79	1,033,528	19,842
80	1,648,773	17,021	80	1,117,697	20,995
81	1,724,228	18,307	81	1,177,956	21,836
82	1,843,259	19,842	82	1,250,135	23,056
83	1,914,995	20,995	83	1,324,652	23,141
84	1,999,444	21,836	84	1,393,480	23,273
85	2,077,235	23,056	85	1,475,476	24,490
86	2,171,659	23,141	86	1,562,248	25,932
87	2,259,490	23,273	87	1,648,773	26,585
88	2,337,722	24,490	88	1,724,228	27,708
89	2,414,435	25,932	89	1,843,259	28,875
90	2,490,358	26,585	90	1,914,995	28,989
91	2,566,573	27,708	91	1,999,444	29,129
92	2,648,525	28,875	92	2,077,235	31,116
93	2,731,129	28,989	93	2,171,659	32,549
94	2,815,167	29,129	94	2,259,490	33,700
95	2,898,660	31,116	95	2,337,722	34,388
96	2,969,529	32,549	96	2,414,435	35,797
97	3,040,471	33,700	97	2,490,358	35,940
98	3,116,272	34,388	98	2,566,573	36,060
99	3,193,642	35,797	99	2,648,525	37,534
100	3,277,493	35,940	100	2,731,129	38,853

Sources:

https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Some earlier Covid-19 blogs:

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-positive-results-from.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-how-successfully-are.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/12/covid-19-vaccines-comparison-of.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/09/covid-19-continues-to-travel-around.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/has-covid-19-become-less-deadly.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/july-2020-update-covid-19-death-rates.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/05/covid-19-death-rates-correlate-highly.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-impact-on-employment-no-impact.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-there-model-that-can-predict-when-to.html

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/03/estimating-fatality-rate-of-coronavirus.html

There are more Covid-related posts on the blog, that can be found from the labels coronavirus and Covid-19.

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And, here’s a more pleasant travel story than anticipating the worldwide journey of a virus.

A Drive Across Newfoundland

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Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known for steep cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist too). The inland areas are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by forests, rivers, rock formations, and abundant wildlife. The province also features some of the Earth’s most remarkable geology, notably The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the Earth’s interior have been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an almost alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered regions of the planet.

The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban areas, with a population that maintains many old traditions and cultural aspects of the British Isles. That’s true of the rest of the province, as well, where the people are friendly and inclined to chat amiably with visitors. Plus, they talk with amusing accents and party hard, so what’s not to like?

This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.

A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail: A Biking Journal Kindle Edition

by Dale Olausen (Author), Helena Puumala (Editor)

The Kettle Valley Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic biking and hiking trails in Canada. It covers a good stretch of the south-central interior of British Columbia, about 600 kilometers of scenic countryside. British Columbia is one of the most beautiful areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country, ideal for those who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in the great outdoors.

The trail passes through a great variety of geographical and geological regions, from mountains to valleys, along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry near-desert condition grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned by a combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes through wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite low, in populated valleys, alongside spectacular water features such as beautiful Lake Okanagan, an area that is home to hundreds of vineyards, as well as other civilized comforts.

The trail is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits and adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness. The views are spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people are friendly. What more could one ask for?

What follows is a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail in the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours reading), and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are also sections containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora and fauna, and associated information.

After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it will be an experience you will never forget.

Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01GBG8JE0

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Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01GBG8JE0

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On the Road with Bronco Billy

Spring is on us now, and that brings on thoughts of ROAD TRIP. Sure, it is still a bit early, but you can still start making plans for your next road trip with help of “On the Road with Bronco Billy”. Sit back and go on a ten day trucking trip in a big rig, through western North America, from Alberta to Texas, and back again. Explore the countryside, learn some trucking lingo, and observe the shifting cultural norms across this great continent. Then, come spring, try it out for yourself.

Amazon U.S.: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK

Amazon U.K.: http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK

Amazon Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK

Amazon Canada: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK