Monkeypox vs Covid – The First 100 Days
The Covid-19 pandemic is apparently over (but
maybe not, time will tell), but now comes Monkeypox. So, an obvious
question that comes to mind is, how does the beginning of the global
Monkeypox outbreak compare to the start of the global Covid outbreak?
To that end, this essay has mined some data from Our World in Data
to make these comparisons, along with making some reasonable
assumptions to put them into perspective.
Straight-up Comparison
The graph below is a straight-up comparison of the
raw data, for the first 100 days, of the course of the two outbreaks.
Looking at it this way, there is little similarity between the two;
Covid-19 was a much more extreme outbreak than Monkeypox has been, at
least so far.
Adjustment for
Uncertainty in Start Dates
One problem with this comparison, is that it is
difficult to say just when the two outbreaks began. The first day of
the published data for the Covid-19 outbreak has 557 cases listed, which is obviously wrong.
On the other hand, the published data for the Monkeypox outbreak begins with only 1 case
for the first two days, then jumps to 11 by the third day. (The raw
data is shown at the end of the blog).
So, the data has been adjusted, imputing some new
adjusted data, by back-extrapolating the first few days, via the use
of a smooth power law function that fits the data rather well, after this
early “scanty-data” period. The graphs below show how this was
done (i.e. used the equations to calculate the earlier predicted points).
With these adjusted start dates, the new Covid vs
Monkeypox graph is shown below. This closes up the comparison
between the Covid and Monkeypox outbreaks somewhat, though the Covid
numbers are still much higher than the Monkeypox numbers.
Adjustment for At-Risk Populations
The most recent evidence shows that the two
pandemics have effected very different populations. Covid-19 was
quite widespread, hitting all age groups and genders, though Covid had a tendency for severe outcomes (hospitalizations and deaths) to increase with age and it was somewhat more severe for males than females.
But, in terms of cases, the entire population of a given country
tended to be hit fairly equally.
On the other hand, Monkeypox was almost entirely
confined to a small section of the population, which has described as
“men who have sex with men” (MSM). So, a more appropriate
comparison of the two outbreaks might be made by simulating Covid-19
data, as it would apply to that smaller part of the population.
To do this, a few
assumptions have to be made:
-
MSM are males.
-
MSM make up
about 3 percent of the male population, or about 1.5% of the
population in general.
-
MSM that are at
risk of Monkeypox are mostly in the 20 to 59 age groups (presumably, the most sexually
active group).
To adjust Covid-19 cases to simulate this
sub-group, the numbers for the overall population were multiplied by
0.015, which produces the graph shown below.
This graph shows that once the differences in the
at-risk populations are accounted for, the early stages of these
outbreaks are rather similar. Making reasonable changes in the
above assumptions will alter the graph to some extent, but this
essential feature will remain true.
Another way to look at the situation is to
simulate Monkeypox figures, as might be the case if the virus mutated
into a form that spread through the air, in the manner of the corona
virus that causes Covid-19. This can be done by dividing the
Monkeypox data by 0.015, yielding the graph shown below.
Although this graph has the same overall form of
the previous one, it does emphasize that Monkeypox could have quite a
Covid-like effect, if it was to evolve in this direction. Granted,
that seems unlikely, as it is not an RNA-based virus, and thus should
mutate at a much smaller rate than the SARS-2 Corona virus did.
Comparison of
Deaths from Covid vs Monkeypox
So far, Monkeypox has had a very low fatality
rate. As of the first 100 days, only about a dozen people were recorded as
dying from Monkeypox, from a case count of over 35,000. So, that’s
only about one per three thousand cases. Covid, on the other, had
recorded about 240,000 fatalities by day 100. That’s a huge
difference.
Or is it? Again, we have to account for the
difference in at-risk populations:
-
There were about 3.25 million Covid cases
by Day 100.
-
However, the MSM sub-group would only
account for about 1.5% of these, or a bit under 41,000 cases.
-
But in this age range (20-59) the case
fatality rate was very low, at about 1.2 per thousand in many
industrialized counties, the set that has been hit hardest by
Monkeypox.
-
So, that would imply about 49 fatalities in
this particular sub-group of the population.
That’s about 4 times more fatalities than were
seen in the Monkeypox group, implying that Covid-19 is probably more
severe in its effects than Monkeypox, or at least it was in the early stages of the
pandemic.
Nonetheless, it also implies that if Monkeypox
were to become widespread in the overall population, the effects
would be quite severe. Added to that, is the fact that Monkeypox has
historically been much more severe in children than in other age
groups. So, a Monkeypox pandemic that included large numbers of children could be very tragic, indeed.
So, in summary, a widespread Monkeypox pandemic
would be a bad thing, something that we definitely would want to
avoid.
Source Data – From Our World in Data
|
Original
Data
|
Start-Date Adjusted
|
|
Day
|
Covid-19
|
Monkeypox
|
Day
|
Covid-19
|
Monkeypox
|
|
1
|
557
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
2
|
657
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
|
3
|
944
|
11
|
3
|
14
|
3
|
|
4
|
1,437
|
11
|
4
|
37
|
5
|
|
5
|
2,120
|
11
|
5
|
82
|
8
|
|
6
|
2,929
|
11
|
6
|
160
|
13
|
|
7
|
5,580
|
12
|
7
|
284
|
18
|
|
8
|
6,169
|
13
|
8
|
557
|
26
|
|
9
|
8,237
|
13
|
9
|
657
|
36
|
|
10
|
9,927
|
17
|
10
|
944
|
41
|
|
11
|
12,038
|
17
|
11
|
1,437
|
60
|
|
12
|
16,787
|
20
|
12
|
2,120
|
105
|
|
13
|
19,887
|
41
|
13
|
2,929
|
121
|
|
14
|
23,899
|
60
|
14
|
5,580
|
121
|
|
15
|
27,644
|
105
|
15
|
6,169
|
194
|
|
16
|
30,806
|
121
|
16
|
8,237
|
230
|
|
17
|
34,400
|
121
|
17
|
9,927
|
274
|
|
18
|
37,131
|
194
|
18
|
12,038
|
362
|
|
19
|
40,162
|
230
|
19
|
16,787
|
414
|
|
20
|
42,771
|
274
|
20
|
19,887
|
431
|
|
21
|
44,814
|
362
|
21
|
23,899
|
451
|
|
22
|
45,232
|
414
|
22
|
27,644
|
574
|
|
23
|
60,384
|
431
|
23
|
30,806
|
639
|
|
24
|
66,912
|
451
|
24
|
34,400
|
723
|
|
25
|
69,055
|
574
|
25
|
37,131
|
848
|
|
26
|
71,238
|
639
|
26
|
40,162
|
942
|
|
27
|
73,273
|
723
|
27
|
42,771
|
950
|
|
28
|
75,155
|
848
|
28
|
44,814
|
1,057
|
|
29
|
75,655
|
942
|
29
|
45,232
|
1,172
|
|
30
|
76,216
|
950
|
30
|
60,384
|
1,322
|
|
31
|
76,846
|
1,057
|
31
|
66,912
|
1,419
|
|
32
|
78,608
|
1,172
|
32
|
69,055
|
1,565
|
|
33
|
78,990
|
1,322
|
33
|
71,238
|
1,608
|
|
34
|
79,558
|
1,419
|
34
|
73,273
|
1,617
|
|
35
|
80,412
|
1,565
|
35
|
75,155
|
1,731
|
|
36
|
81,384
|
1,608
|
36
|
75,655
|
1,791
|
|
37
|
82,728
|
1,617
|
37
|
76,216
|
2,035
|
|
38
|
84,152
|
1,731
|
38
|
76,846
|
2,182
|
|
39
|
86,023
|
1,791
|
39
|
78,608
|
2,558
|
|
40
|
88,402
|
2,035
|
40
|
78,990
|
2,752
|
|
41
|
90,382
|
2,182
|
41
|
79,558
|
2,757
|
|
42
|
92,994
|
2,558
|
42
|
80,412
|
2,764
|
|
43
|
95,316
|
2,752
|
43
|
81,384
|
3,058
|
|
44
|
98,027
|
2,757
|
44
|
82,728
|
3,340
|
|
45
|
101,957
|
2,764
|
45
|
84,152
|
3,514
|
|
46
|
106,088
|
3,058
|
46
|
86,023
|
4,072
|
|
47
|
109,942
|
3,340
|
47
|
88,402
|
4,276
|
|
48
|
114,265
|
3,514
|
48
|
90,382
|
4,288
|
|
49
|
119,051
|
4,072
|
49
|
92,994
|
4,484
|
|
50
|
126,527
|
4,276
|
50
|
95,316
|
4,871
|
|
51
|
133,283
|
4,288
|
51
|
98,027
|
5,219
|
|
52
|
146,477
|
4,484
|
52
|
101,957
|
5,372
|
|
53
|
157,365
|
4,871
|
53
|
106,088
|
6,179
|
|
54
|
168,598
|
5,219
|
54
|
109,942
|
6,448
|
|
55
|
183,165
|
5,372
|
55
|
114,265
|
6,492
|
|
56
|
198,339
|
6,179
|
56
|
119,051
|
6,532
|
|
57
|
215,899
|
6,448
|
57
|
126,527
|
7,026
|
|
58
|
242,986
|
6,492
|
58
|
133,283
|
7,473
|
|
59
|
272,516
|
6,532
|
59
|
146,477
|
7,705
|
|
60
|
304,943
|
7,026
|
60
|
157,365
|
8,395
|
|
61
|
339,156
|
7,473
|
61
|
168,598
|
9,455
|
|
62
|
381,711
|
7,705
|
62
|
183,165
|
9,577
|
|
63
|
423,596
|
8,395
|
63
|
198,339
|
9,604
|
|
64
|
475,075
|
9,455
|
64
|
215,899
|
10,195
|
|
65
|
535,890
|
9,577
|
65
|
242,986
|
11,067
|
|
66
|
599,820
|
9,604
|
66
|
272,516
|
11,485
|
|
67
|
669,402
|
10,195
|
67
|
304,943
|
12,096
|
|
68
|
725,918
|
11,067
|
68
|
339,156
|
12,984
|
|
69
|
790,929
|
11,485
|
69
|
381,711
|
13,000
|
|
70
|
869,371
|
12,096
|
70
|
423,596
|
13,038
|
|
71
|
951,084
|
12,984
|
71
|
475,075
|
13,855
|
|
72
|
1,033,528
|
13,000
|
72
|
535,890
|
15,049
|
|
73
|
1,117,697
|
13,038
|
73
|
599,820
|
15,623
|
|
74
|
1,177,956
|
13,855
|
74
|
669,402
|
16,263
|
|
75
|
1,250,135
|
15,049
|
75
|
725,918
|
16,983
|
|
76
|
1,324,652
|
15,623
|
76
|
790,929
|
16,987
|
|
77
|
1,393,480
|
16,263
|
77
|
869,371
|
17,021
|
|
78
|
1,475,476
|
16,983
|
78
|
951,084
|
18,307
|
|
79
|
1,562,248
|
16,987
|
79
|
1,033,528
|
19,842
|
|
80
|
1,648,773
|
17,021
|
80
|
1,117,697
|
20,995
|
|
81
|
1,724,228
|
18,307
|
81
|
1,177,956
|
21,836
|
|
82
|
1,843,259
|
19,842
|
82
|
1,250,135
|
23,056
|
|
83
|
1,914,995
|
20,995
|
83
|
1,324,652
|
23,141
|
|
84
|
1,999,444
|
21,836
|
84
|
1,393,480
|
23,273
|
|
85
|
2,077,235
|
23,056
|
85
|
1,475,476
|
24,490
|
|
86
|
2,171,659
|
23,141
|
86
|
1,562,248
|
25,932
|
|
87
|
2,259,490
|
23,273
|
87
|
1,648,773
|
26,585
|
|
88
|
2,337,722
|
24,490
|
88
|
1,724,228
|
27,708
|
|
89
|
2,414,435
|
25,932
|
89
|
1,843,259
|
28,875
|
|
90
|
2,490,358
|
26,585
|
90
|
1,914,995
|
28,989
|
|
91
|
2,566,573
|
27,708
|
91
|
1,999,444
|
29,129
|
|
92
|
2,648,525
|
28,875
|
92
|
2,077,235
|
31,116
|
|
93
|
2,731,129
|
28,989
|
93
|
2,171,659
|
32,549
|
|
94
|
2,815,167
|
29,129
|
94
|
2,259,490
|
33,700
|
|
95
|
2,898,660
|
31,116
|
95
|
2,337,722
|
34,388
|
|
96
|
2,969,529
|
32,549
|
96
|
2,414,435
|
35,797
|
|
97
|
3,040,471
|
33,700
|
97
|
2,490,358
|
35,940
|
|
98
|
3,116,272
|
34,388
|
98
|
2,566,573
|
36,060
|
|
99
|
3,193,642
|
35,797
|
99
|
2,648,525
|
37,534
|
|
100
|
3,277,493
|
35,940
|
100
|
2,731,129
|
38,853
|
Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Some earlier Covid-19 blogs:
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-positive-results-from.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/03/covid-19-vaccines-how-successfully-are.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/12/covid-19-vaccines-comparison-of.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/09/covid-19-continues-to-travel-around.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/has-covid-19-become-less-deadly.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/07/july-2020-update-covid-19-death-rates.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/05/covid-19-death-rates-correlate-highly.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-impact-on-employment-no-impact.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-there-model-that-can-predict-when-to.html
https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2020/03/estimating-fatality-rate-of-coronavirus.html
There are more Covid-related posts on the blog, that can be found from the labels coronavirus and Covid-19.
=====================================================
And, here’s a more pleasant travel story than anticipating the
worldwide journey of a virus.
A Drive Across Newfoundland
U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07NMR9WM8
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Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B07NMR9WM8
Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B07NMR9WM8
Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B07NMR9WM8
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India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B07NMR9WM8
Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is
both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of
stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known
for steep cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist
too). The inland areas are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by
forests, rivers, rock formations, and abundant wildlife. The province
also features some of the Earth’s most remarkable geology, notably
The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the Earth’s interior have
been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an almost
alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered
regions of the planet.
The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban
areas, with a population that maintains many old traditions and
cultural aspects of the British Isles. That’s true of the rest of
the province, as well, where the people are friendly and inclined to
chat amiably with visitors. Plus, they talk with amusing accents and
party hard, so what’s not to like?
This account focusses
on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the
southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only
known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike
visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological
feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very
interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these
other-worldly landscapes.
A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail: A Biking
Journal Kindle Edition
by
Dale
Olausen (Author),
Helena
Puumala (Editor)
The Kettle Valley Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic
biking and hiking trails in Canada. It covers a good stretch of the
south-central interior of British Columbia, about 600 kilometers of
scenic countryside. British Columbia is one of the most beautiful
areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country, ideal for those
who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in the
great outdoors.
The trail passes through a great variety
of geographical and geological regions, from mountains to valleys,
along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry near-desert condition
grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned by a
combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes
through wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite
low, in populated valleys, alongside spectacular water features such
as beautiful Lake Okanagan, an area that is home to hundreds of
vineyards, as well as other civilized comforts.
The trail
is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits
and adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness.
The views are spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people
are friendly. What more could one ask for?
What follows is
a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail in
the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours
reading), and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are
also sections containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora
and fauna, and associated information.
After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether
the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it
will be an experience you will never forget.
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https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Amazon U.K.:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01GBG8JE0
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Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01GBG8JE0
Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01GBG8JE0
On the Road with Bronco Billy
Spring is on us now, and that brings on thoughts of
ROAD TRIP.
Sure, it is still a bit early, but you can still start making plans
for your next road trip with help of “On the Road with Bronco
Billy”. Sit back and go on a ten day trucking trip in a big rig,
through western North America, from Alberta to Texas, and back again.
Explore the countryside, learn some trucking lingo, and observe the
shifting cultural norms across this great continent. Then, come
spring, try it out for yourself.
Amazon U.S.:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon U.K.:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
Amazon Canada: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B00X2IRHSK
