Stanley Cup, Sweeps, Reverse Sweeps and Home vs Visitors in Games 7 (History vs Simulations)
The R-based simulation program played 15000 series (maximum 105000 games, though in practice it only needed to play about 85% of those games, as most series concluded before game 7).
Series Going to 3-0 for the Higher Ranked Team
In 15000 simulated series, there were 2402 games that went to a 3-0 lead for the higher ranked team (in 2024 that would be Florida). That calculates out to 16.0% (2402/15000). That goes for all series, but given the simulation assumptions, 16% would also apply to the final series.
Looking at the 31 years from 1993-94 to 2023-24, there were 5 final series that went to 3-0 out of 31 final series. That calculates out to 16.1% (5/31), very close to what the simulation predicts.
Series Going to 3-0 for the Higher Ranked Team, then a 4-0 Sweep
In the 15000 simulated series, there were 1199 series where the 3-0 team won game 4 and thus had a sweep. That’s 8.0% of all series and 49.9% of series that had gone to 3-0.
In the 31 years from 1994-95 to 2023-24, there were 2 4-0 sweeps. That is 6.5% (2/31) of all series and 40% (2/5) of all series that had gone to 3-0.
So, the historical averages were somewhat lower than the simulation results. Of course with small numbers of actual games, the inherent variability of a small sample can produce results that are too high or too low. Had one more series had become a sweep, the percentages would be higher than the simulation predicts, rather than lower.
Series Going to 3-0 for the Higher Ranked Team, then to 3-4 Reverse Sweep
In the 15000 simulated series, there were 104 series where the 3-0 team lost the next 4 games, resulting in a reverse sweep. That’s 0.7% of all series and 4.3% of series that had initially gone to 3-0.
In the 31 years from 1994-95 to 2023-24, there were 0 reverse sweeps. That is 0.0% (0/31) of all series and 0% (0/5) of all series that had gone to 3-0.
Of course, with such small predicted frequencies (0.7% and 4.3%), one would need a lot of actual games to expect to get even get one reverse sweep, so the simulation and historical results are reasonably close. To get even one reverse sweep in the finals, we would require a lot more than 31 games. In fact, the one reverse sweep usually noted by the media (1942 Maple Leafs over Red Wings) fits that bill rather nicely, at once in 82 years (a bit over one percent).
Home vs Visitor in Game 7
As noted in the assumptions, the simulation predicts that the home team will win 57% of game 7 contests. The historical data from 1993-94 to 2022-23 shows that there were 8 series that went to Game 7, and the home team won 5 of those, with 3 going to the visitor. That gives the home team a 62.5% win rate.
Again, due to the small number of games in the historical sample, it is mathematically impossible to hit 57%, so 62.5% is quite reasonable concordance between prediction and actual history.
My Prediction for Game 7
As for what will happen in Game 7 in 2023-24 (Oilers-Panthers), I would say that the current momentum of the series indicates that it is about 50/50, instead of the usual 57/43 for the home team. So, a reverse sweep, which is uncommon, but one might say that it is due, as is a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup (that is incredibly overdue). So, if you put stock in such ideas as an event being “due”, that’s your answer. Of course, in statistical theory this is generally referred to as the Gambler’s Fallacy. So there’s that.
Assumptions of the simulation model:
Number of Series per year: 15
Number of Seasons per Simulation 100
Number of Runs of Simulation 10
Total Number of Playoff Series 15000
Games Possible, all Series got to 7: 105000
Actual number of Games in sim: 87130
Pct of Possible actually played 83.0%
Probability, Team A winning at home: 57.2%
Probability, Team B winning at home: 50.2%
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And here’s a different sort of Canada-U.S. experience:
On the Road with Bronco Billy
Sit back and go on a ten day trucking trip in a big rig, through western North America, from Alberta to Texas, and back again. Explore the countryside, learn some trucking lingo, and observe the shifting cultural norms across this great continent.
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What follows is an account of a ten day journey through western North America during a working trip, delivering lumber from Edmonton Alberta to Dallas Texas, and returning with oilfield equipment. The writer had the opportunity to accompany a friend who is a professional truck driver, which he eagerly accepted. He works as a statistician for the University of Alberta, and is therefore is generally confined to desk, chair, and computer. The chance to see the world from the cab of a truck, and be immersed in the truck driving culture was intriguing. In early May 1997 they hit the road.
Some time has passed
since this journal was written and many things have changed since the
late 1990’s. That renders the journey as not just a geographical
one, but also a historical account, which I think only increases its
interest.
We were fortunate to have an eventful trip - a
mechanical breakdown, a near miss from a tornado, and a large-scale
flood were among these events. But even without these turns of fate,
the drama of the landscape, the close-up view of the trucking
lifestyle, and the opportunity to observe the cultural habits of a
wide swath of western North America would have been sufficient to
fill up an interesting journal.
The travelogue is about
20,000 words, about 60 to 90 minutes of reading, at typical reading
speeds.
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