Mining Lithium from Spent Oil Wells – University of Alberta Talk by Professor Daniel Allesi

Introduction

In order to get to net zero emissions (or even to approach that goal), a great deal of energy storage will be required. That’s especially true in areas like Canada, which have long periods with little sunlight, thus making solar power infeasible for much of the year, unless ample electrical storage is available. Lithium is one of the materials that is needed for electric storage, so lithium is a strategic resource of great importance, one that is currently not that widely accessible in most of the world.

 

This talk about extracting lithium from brines associated with spent oil wells in Alberta, Canada was delivered by Dr. Daniel Allesi of the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Alberta, a specialist in geochemistry and geomicrobiology. It dealt with his team’s research into the development of processes to extract lithium at commercial scale and prices competitive with current supplies. The official name of the talk was “Electric Potential; Extracting Lithium from Waste in Alberta”.

Lithium Demand

• 
  Huge growth in demand is expected for lithium, especially for use in Lithium-ion batteries. Lithium is basically used in all parts of these batteries, the anode, cathode and solution.

   A 9X increase in demand is expected by 2030.

• But supply is having trouble keeping up, so a shortage is expected soon, by about 2025.

• Thus, many more sources of supply are needed, both conventional and unconventional.

• One of those unconventional sources could be brine from the Duveney Formation, an oil-bearing rock formation in Alberta.

• This brine is very salty, about 5X more than sea water (at about 136K ppm).

• However it also does contain a fairly decent amount of Lithium, averaging at about 55 ppm.

• Some cobalt, another strategic metal is also present, though at low concentrations.

Conventional Lithium Sources

• Currently, one of the main conventional source of supply are salt flats, which contain Li2CO3.

  • Solar evaporation is used to concentrate brine that has been collected in evaporation ponds. This results in a lithium precipitate, with a recovery rate of 50-60% of the lithium in the brine.

  • However, there are considerable environment impacts from this process. It uses a lot of water, in regions that are scarce in water. That water then becomes contaminated.

  • It also takes years to months for the necessary evaporation to occur and requires a lot of sunshine. These conditions are not that common (The dry high desert area of Chile is a current main source).
    

• Hard rock, open pit mining (granite pegmatite) is another conventional source of supply. This can produce both Li2CO3 and LiOH. There are various such mines around the world, either working or in development (e.g. Africa, Australia, U.S., Quebec, there is a possibility of an Alberta mine as well).

Alberta Lithium Potential

• Alberta has many millions of tons of Lithium Carbonate brine, in underground sources.

• Though these are relatively low grade sources compared to a lot of current conventional supplies, they are abundant.

• One estimate is 10 million tons at $25 thousand dollars per ton, so there is potentially lots of money to be made. Some brines have high grades, up to 140 ppm.

• They tend to be found in areas that have had extensive oil and gas production. Therefore, costs can be reduced as much of the infrastructure needed already exists (i.e. from the oil/gas exploration and development).

• Lithium in these brines is thought to be driven by hydro-thermal volcanic activity, deep underground.

  
  
  

Lithium Extraction Technology for Alberta Brine

• There are many options for lithium extraction, such as the use of solvents, membranes, electrolysis or selective absorption.

• The basic process can be thought of in these stages:

  • Drill and collect brine from underground source.

  • Use direct lithium extraction process (ion exchange) to remove lithium from the brine.

  • Re-inject the lithium-depleted brine back underground.

  • Do some cleanup, then precipitate solid lithium from the concentrate.

• Some technical details (very simplified)

  • Metal beads (the sorbent) are used to adsorb lithium ions from the brine. These are manganese (III) and manganese (IV).

  • The metals are dipped into the brine.

  • Essentially, lithium ions are adsorbed by being selected into small regions in the metal’s crystalline structure. That is due to its small size (lithium is only the third element in the periodic table).

  • This loads the metal beads with lithium.

  • The metal beads (sorbent) are then rinsed in a solution to extract the lithium from the sorbent, resulting in a highly concentrated brine.

  • Solid lithium is then precipitated out in ponds.

  • The sorbent is then dried out for re-use, to start the cycle over again.

• The process can be quick, on the scale of hours rather than months.

• It can recover 80%+ of the lithium, though there are also some other products produced by the process.

• Some technical/commercial issues to be worked out.

  • The big problem is the need to recycle and reuse the sorbent for the economics to be competitive (sorbent is expensive).

  • But, manganese is lost during the process, which is a problem as it is a key part of the sorbent.

  • Though the brine is from a “free site” (a site previously used for oil and thus has ready-built infrastructure) this creates a problem. The brine is often contaminated with hydrocarbons and other unwanted substances.

  • This coating of the sorbent with these oils may be part of the problem that leads to the loss of sorbent.

• This is the professor’s major area of research (i.e. the need to be able to reuse the sorbent).

  • For commercialization, the sorbent loss rate must be kept low, perhaps only 1% or so for each cycle of the process.

  • Basically, there is a need to “clean up” the brine in order to save the sorbent. This is especially true for organics in the brine.

  • One idea is to centrifuge the brine, to separate out the contaminants before mixing with the sorbent.

  • Washing with a surfactant (soap, basically) may help also help in the quest to maintain and reuse the sorbent.

  • Use of chlorine, peroxide or filtration (ultra fine, nano-level) are some possible approaches. But filters are expensive.

  • Coating the sorbent with something like zirconium might help to protect the manganese from reduction, so less loss of useful sorbent.

• H2S can also be a problem, by reducing Mn(IV) to Mn(III) or Mn(II), which are less useful sorbents. So that may need to be scrubbed.

Commercialization

• Problems have been solved in the lab, but can the process be done at a commercial, industrial scale? Research on this is ongoing.

• Using petrol-brine at a rate of 10K cubic meters per day, with a concentration of 80 ppm can yield 1500 tons of lithium per year.

• At current prices, that is feasible, but prices are high right now, so the economics might not work at lower prices.

• Economic incentives (e.g. tax breaks, subsidies) would be helpful (naturally).

• One advantage in favour of the process, is that the money earned via this method could offset oil industry water storage costs, so complete cost recovery may not be necessary (though always preferable).

• Another advantages is that a skilled workforce already exists in Alberta (oil/gas workers are already familiar with a lot of aspects of the overall process). Some incentives for re-training would also be useful.

• Ultimately, the greatest benefit would come from producing batteries from the lithium, rather than exporting it for others to do.

  
  

Sources:

The talk “Electric Potential; Extracting Lithium from Waste in Alberta”. By University of Alberta Talk by Professor Daniel Allesi

Alberta Brine Map and diagram: Eccles, D.R.; Berhane, H. Geological introduction to lithium-rich formation water withemphasis on the Fox Creek area of west-central Alberta (NTS 83F and 83K); Energy Resources Conservation Board, Edmonton, AB, 2011; pp 1-17.

Lithium Recovery from Hydraulic Fracturing Flowback and
Produced Water using a Manganese-Based Sorbent (Masters thesis byAdam John Seip

Wiki 

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And here is a description of a (relatively) carbon-emission reduced adventure, which you can buy on Kindle (also carbon-emission reduced, compared to paper).

A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail: A Biking Journal Kindle Edition

by Dale Olausen (Author), Helena Puumala (Editor)

The Kettle Valley Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic biking and hiking trails in Canada. It covers a good stretch of the south-central interior of British Columbia, about 600 kilometers of scenic countryside. British Columbia is one of the most beautiful areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country, ideal for those who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in the great outdoors.

The trail passes through a great variety of geographical and geological regions, from mountains to valleys, along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry near-desert condition grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned by a combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes through wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite low, in populated valleys, alongside spectacular water features such as beautiful Lake Okanagan, an area that is home to hundreds of vineyards, as well as other civilized comforts.

The trail is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits and adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness. The views are spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people are friendly. What more could one ask for?

What follows is a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail in the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours reading), and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are also sections containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora and fauna, and associated information.

After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it will be an experience you will never forget.

Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Accelerating the Net-Zero Transition - Can CCUS Keep Up?

 Accelerating the Net-Zero Transition - Can CCUS Keep Up?

Introduction

This blog relates information about CCUS (Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage) and from a panel discussion with participation from three major research universities in North America (and guests), with locations in important energy producing areas:

• University of Alberta, Canada

• University of Texas – Austin, U.S.

• Tech de Monterey, Mexico

The University of Alberta is sponsoring these talks, along with the other institutions mentioned. This is my second blog reporting on this subject.

The first talk gave a lot of general information about what CCUS is and what it might be able to do in the future..

There was a lot of talk about carbon capture and sequestration in the past, which was often dismissed as uneconomic, unreliable or environmentally dangerous (a way to extend fossil fuel usage). Recently, the whole idea has become much more mainstream. I don’t know how much the situation has really changed, but it is worthwhile listening to these more recent claims, for context.

The first talk focused on it the use of CCUS to use de-carbonize some key industrial process, notably those which produce a lot of CO2 ( steel, chemicals and cement are the primary culprits). This second talk expanded on these uses and added some additional information on other likely purposes for CCUS. A key question was how ready the technology is, to actually play the role in net-zero carbon emissions that is hoped for it.

The Case for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage

Before getting to the details of the talk, I want to outline, in thumbnail form, the case for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage, that I have gathered from these talks and other sources:

• The human race continues to have an insatiable desire for energy. However, its main way of feeding this desire creates increasing levels of greenhouse gases, which are endangering the planet’s climate.

• Renewables are promising, but there are also problems.

  • They will take decades to be rolled out at the scale needed to take over the task of supplying all this energy. As well as producing the huge amount of energy needed, there is also the need to store this energy, as the sun doesn’t always shine, nor does the wind always blow.

  • They also have potential environmental issues, related to sourcing raw materials for solar panels and wind generators, and dealing with these products after their useful life is over.

  • There is a limit to how many rivers can be dammed. Plus, the damming of rivers also creates environmental problems.

• Nuclear energy is another alternative, but it has its own problems.

  • Fission reactor accidents are an ongoing concern.

  • Mining uranium creates environmental damage.

  • Storage of radioactive wastes is still a problem.

  • The risk of nuclear weapons proliferation has not gone away.

• Game-changing technology, such as nuclear fusion is possible, but as we have all learned it tends to be “35 years in the future” and has been for a long time.

• Conservation and increased energy efficiency are partial solutions, but in a world that is still committed to constant economic and population growth, they seem like treading water. Gains in efficiency are quickly offset by increasing population and levels of consumption.

• All this means that fossil fuels may be hard to abandon.

  • There are are still a lot of fossil fuels locked up in the Earth, that have the potential to continue to provide vast amounts of energy, needed by societies around the world.

  • In addition, there is a huge infrastructure (technological, financial, and political) that has grown up around this industry over the past two centuries. Unravelling this infrastructure won’t be easy or cheap. It may even be dangerous, as producer countries and regions are not likely to go “gently into that good night”.

  • If the technology to capture carbon dioxide safely, cheaply and permanently is perfected, many of these problems might be averted. Renewables could be developed and perfected at a sustainable pace, nuclear energy could be improved and the “35 year future” for breakthrough physics might even have time to arrive.

The Panel Discussion

Note that I have kept my review of the discussion in point form. I can’t guarantee that I got every detail right, but the overall essence of the talk is here.

General Observations and Context (Dr. Rick Chakaturnyk, Engineering professor, University of Alberta)

• Dr. Chakaturnyk is in the Faculty of Engineering, with a particular interest in Reservoir Geomechanics.

• He was involved in the Weyburne CO2 storage facility development, including devleoping standards for CO2 storage.

• He noted that the panel discussion will feature “opportunities that haven’t yet been realized”. Among these were development of the hydrogen economy. CCUS has a role in this.

  • Is it ready for the scale required?

  • Is there sufficient storage capacity?

  • Is there sufficient transport capacity?

  • Is the technology for conversion to different fuels being developed?

• Some challenges include:

• Cost effectiveness.

• Safe storage, especially given the huge volumes needed.

• The competition for pore space (i.e. there are many other technologies competing for the underground storage space, such as such as CO2 storage and geothermal development).

• He noted that there are already several Canadian projects up and running, in the 1 to 2 megatons per year range. Much more will be needed, especially as new projects come into use that will also require storage.

• There are many aspects involved in managing all this, including the development of inter-related industrial hubs, the need for transport (e.g. pipelines) and the requirement of much more storage space.

Edmundo Perez, Tech de Monterey, Mexico (data science)

• Among other things, Edmundo Perez of Tech de Monterey in Mexico, is a data science expert with extensive experience in developing computer simulations.

• His talk featured the sub-title “Timing, Scale, Money”.

• He began by emphasizing the need for CO2 capture, which is basically driven by concerns over global warming. This represents a huge challenge for sustainability.

• He also noted that in his opinion, we will have to “not use” much of the fossil fuel resource base, even with successful carbon capture technologies.

• CCUS has come up in many “net zero” technology plans, but he noted that the level of development needed for this transition is huge. He estimated that carbon capture would have to scale up by about a factor of 4, every year, in order to reach net-zero by 2050 via CCUS alone.

• This CCUS development would be needed to be implemented for a wide variety of purposes and processes, such as:

  • Cement production.

  • Iron and steel production.

  • Power generation (carbon capture at fossil fuel generating plants).

  • Chemical production, including ethanol and fertilizers.

  • Hydrogen production, via the process of stripping carbon from natural gas, freeing the hydrogen for various purposes (e.g. combustion, fuel cells).

  • Transportation that can’t be fully electrified (e.g. large trucks and airplanes).

• This is far from the situation today. Development has been slow and spotty on a global scale. A great amount of acceleration is required.

• As of now, there is no overarching policy for this development and most applications are not yet mature, in terms of commercial markets.

• A factor in this slow roll-out of CCUS technologies, is the strong competition from solar and wind power generation, which have had huge cost reductions over the past decades. In addition, to most of the public they have an advantage in political appeal.

• CCUS does have a reliability advantage, but that is expected to decline as battery and other energy storage technologies improve.

• In all of these cases (e.g. CCUS and energy storage) full implementation can take decades, given the costs. That said, improvements in human health made possible by the adoption of these technologies should be factored into the economic picture (e.g. from reductions in many other pollutants as well as general amelioration of negative health outcomes likely to result from unimpeded global warming).

• In addition to CCUS, he noted that technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere would be a tremendous breakthrough.

   

Tim Winchar (Shell engineer)

• He is an engineer, who has extensive experience in CCUS projects, including the Quest carbon capture facility near Edmonton (a heavy oil upgrader that captures and stores CO2 produced in the upgrading process), and the Boundary Dam project in Saskatchewan (a coal-based power plant that uses carbon capture to sequester much of the CO2 produced).

• Quest has stored over 5 million tonnes of CO2, while Boundary Dam has stored over 4.2 million tonnes.

• He noted that Shell is doing other things to reduce CO2, not just CCUS. However, there are some industrial processes where carbon capture appears to be the only route to “net-zero” (e.g. producing cement).

• However, CCUS will be needed to meet the various international agreements that have been made.

• CCUS will create a great number of jobs developing and implementing the technology and help areas to retain others by allowing the world to continue using fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas.

• He also notes that a carbon tax will be essential to speed the process along.

   

Mike Monen (Saskatchewan engineer and geoscientist)

• He is also an engineer and geoscientist, with extensive experience in carbon capture and storage.

• This includes both the Boundary Dam project in Saskatchewan and the Weyburn project in that same province. The Weyburn project has sequestered some 35 million tonnes of CO2. It injects this CO2 underground as part of an enhanced oil recovery project.

• Based on his experience, he emphasizes that the technologies are available and that they work. However, continued government incentives are essential, at least for the present.

• The increase in the GHG tax from $50 per ton to $170 per ton is an example of this. Part of the tax money thereby collected can go into further research.

• That said, some of the improvements being made are driven by “bottom-up” processes, rather than being government driven.

• In a global context, attaining net-zero CO2 emissions is a difficult job. Abatement of CO2 will be required for decades, especially as countries like China and India ramp up their energy usage (thus increasing their CO2 production).

• These two countries had the highest growth of CO2 in the 2005 to 2020 period. The rest of the world’s counties are also bound to want to increase their use of energy, as part of their economic development.

• CCUS implementation has an important political dimension, due to the short time scales involved and the political and economic power of the countries involved, both producer and consumer.

• Looking at the Boundary Dam power plant as an example, he related that CO2 has dropped from 1100 tons per gigawatt of power produced to only 250 tons, a reduction of about 75%. That puts it on par with natural gas, or even somewhat lower.

• Boundary Dam used lignite coal, which is a carbon intensive source. Other projects that used higher grades of coal or other fossil fuels would be able to produce even more impressive numbers.

• Some other industrial processes, such as cement production, would be even easier to de-carbonize via CCUS.

• He believes that there has been a lot of misinformation about net-zero and CCUS. For example, claims that an immediate transition to renewables is possible, though in reality he thinks this is not practical.

• He believes that a primarily renewables electrical grid would be unstable and unreliable, at least until the storage problem is solved. CCUS would provide a more reliable clean base-load. This will entail “cleaning up” fossil fuels to become abatement fuels, via the capture and storage of CO2.

• The involvement of the oil/gas industry will be crucial, as they have the best knowledge base about storage, due to their extensive experience with underground reservoirs.

• In addition, enhanced oil recovery via CO2 injection can help to clean up the oil or gas production, which can then be used for CCUS power production.

• Underground storage is the key to these developments, something that he says is in abundance in North America (especially Alberta).

• He also feels that “the hydrogen economy” has lots of issues, but is largely possible. It would likely require the use of CCUS (e.g. stripping off carbon from natural gas to produce “blue hydrogen”). Producing all hydrogen from renewable power is still a long way off.

• In summary, he says that we should use the technology we have now (e.g. CCUS), because waiting for breakthrough technologies is not feasible. It is unpredictable and will take too long.

  
  
   

And here is a description of a (relatively) carbon-emission reduced adventure, which you can buy on Kindle (also carbon-emission reduced, compared to paper).

A Ride on the Kettle Valley Rail Trail: A Biking Journal Kindle Edition

by Dale Olausen (Author), Helena Puumala (Editor)

The Kettle Valley Rail Trail is one of the longest and most scenic biking and hiking trails in Canada. It covers a good stretch of the south-central interior of British Columbia, about 600 kilometers of scenic countryside. British Columbia is one of the most beautiful areas of Canada, which is itself a beautiful country, ideal for those who appreciate natural splendour and achievable adventure in the great outdoors.

The trail passes through a great variety of geographical and geological regions, from mountains to valleys, along scenic lakes and rivers, to dry near-desert condition grasslands. It often features towering canyons, spanned by a combination of high trestle bridges and long tunnels, as it passes through wild, unpopulated country. At other times, it remains quite low, in populated valleys, alongside spectacular water features such as beautiful Lake Okanagan, an area that is home to hundreds of vineyards, as well as other civilized comforts.

The trail is a nice test of one’s physical fitness, as well as one’s wits and adaptability, as much of it does travel through true wilderness. The views are spectacular, the wildlife is plentiful and the people are friendly. What more could one ask for?

What follows is a journal of two summers of adventure, biking most of the trail in the late 1990s. It is about 33,000 words in length (2 to 3 hours reading), and contains numerous photographs of the trail. There are also sections containing a brief history of the trail, geology, flora and fauna, and associated information.

After reading this account, you should have a good sense of whether the trail is right for you. If you do decide to ride the trail, it will be an experience you will never forget.

Amazon U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Amazon U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Amazon Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01GBG8JE0

Amazon Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B01GBG8JE0

My Real-Life Ghost Story

 

I wrote this some years back, when the events were still fairly fresh in my mind.   I have never published it, so I thought it would be appropriate to put in on the blog, for this Halloween night.

My Real-Life Ghost Story

These events occurred around 1985, while we were living in a housing development in west Edmonton called Meadowlark Village. It was a combined townhouse and high-rise development; we were in one of the townhouses. The address was 7E, Meadowlark Village, if my memory serves me correctly.

My wife and I had been together for about three years, and our son Scott was around a year old. He was a very precocious, intelligent child. My wife, Helena, and I are both university educated, her degree being in English and mine being in Physics and Mathematics. At the time we were both working full-time, with all the consequent hassles and the generally harried lifestyle that anyone in who has ever been in that position can appreciate. She has an active interest in such things as astrology and Tarot cards, with a fairly comprehensive knowledge of both areas, at least to my untutored mind. I have a generally scientific worldview, but flatter myself into thinking that I have a fairly open mind. My studies of some of the more esoteric areas of the physical sciences, such as quantum mechanics, as well as various life experiences, have engendered a more open attitude to non-materialistic aspects of reality than many with my education have. That being said, I am not one who lightly departs from the conventional interpretations of everyday life.

I state the above to frame the participants, so that the reader can judge for himself or herself to what degree the interpretation of events are a reflection of preexisting beliefs or desires to believe. It is only fair that someone who claims to have experienced peculiar events should lay out any possible biases, for full consideration.

The Meadowlark Village development was probably built sometime in the 1960’s. I can remember it existing in the early seventies, as a friend and I visited it during late elementary or early junior high years, circa 1970. At the time it was a rather exotic development for Edmonton’s west end, which mostly consisted of bungalow-type subdivisions. We were intrigued by the meandering walkways, the exterior staircases, swimming pool, sauna, and courtyards, referring to it in our secret code as ‘the maze’.

The dwelling that I eventually rented during my adult life was a three story townhouse, with two bedrooms on the second floor and a loft and storage room on the third. The main floor had a kitchen, dining room, and living room, with patio doors leading to a small enclosed yard. The floors were connected by an open staircase.

I recall being quite satisfied with the place initially. The loft seemed to be an especially nice feature. It gave us an area to set up a desk, where my wife could pursue her writing and where I could do homework, as I was taking some part-time university courses at the time. However, I quickly found that the loft was not as welcoming as I had hoped. I put this down to the fact that the open plan allowed distracting noises from the living room to make their way up the staircase, relatively un-attenuated. My wife complained of the same problem.

The first event seemed innocuous. We were sitting at the kitchen table one morning, when the front door nudged open. There was nobody there, so we thought nothing of it. I assumed that it had probably not been shut quite right and a slight breeze or difference in air pressure between the outside and inside had been responsible for its opening.

It wasn’t long thereafter that the main manifestations began. One afternoon I came home from work, and Helena asked me why I had left all the lights burning before I left that morning. She usually left quite early for work, before 7:00 a.m., while I left considerably later, taking Scott to the daycare and then heading to work at about nine. I have a somewhat forgetful nature, so I replied that I must have forgotten, although it was my usual practice to turn the lights off before leaving. However, with all the distractions involved in bundling up a small child, it would not have been very surprising to forget.

It was not too many days later when she again asked why I had left all the lights blazing. I again conceded that I could have forgotten. About a week later this was repeated. By now I was getting a bit annoyed, and protested that I did not think that I had left the lights on. I began to make deliberate efforts to ensure that I did not leave any lights on in the morning, but the pattern would repeat itself at unpredictable intervals. The problem of course, was how to prove, to myself or her, that I was not leaving the lights on. The only thing I could think of was to tick off a checklist, and clearly that seemed like a ridiculous procedure to go through every morning. Besides, it wouldn’t prove anything. Obviously, it was possible that I could tick off something, and still forget to do it.

Since we had only been together for a few years, neither of us could be entirely sure that one wasn’t playing a slightly malicious prank on the other. She could be making up the whole thing, to confuse and upset me, or I could be leaving the lights on intentionally and lying about it later, to confuse and upset her. This is one of the biggest problems when confronted with peculiar events, especially when they are relatively trivial in nature.

Another possibility that presents itself is that one or the other of you is going slightly crazy, and you have no way of verifying who it might be. You begin to mistrust your own memory of only a few short hours ago. Did I turn the lights off or not? I was certain that I did, but later, how could I be sure? It is quite maddening, in a small way. Fortunately for both of us, Scott was too small to even reach the light switches, so at least we didn’t have to turn wondering eyes upon our son.

Shortly afterwards, these spontaneous light turnings- on began to occur while we were at home, usually in the evening. They were focused on the loft, on the third floor. Helena would find the lights on in the middle of the evening, when she was sure that they should have been off. As I mentioned earlier, we didn’t use the space much, due to the TV noise coming up the staircase, so it wasn’t likely that either of us would have put them on ourselves. Even more curious was the fact that the light in the third floor storage room would often be unaccountably on. This room was only accessible through a door in the loft, and the light was on a pull chain. We seldom went in there, as we used it for long-term storage type items, not things that we would routinely be retrieving. There quite simply was very little reason to go into the room. In fact, we wouldn’t have even know that the light was on or off, other than the thin line of light that would show up at the bottom of the door.

Scott, who as I mentioned earlier was a lively and intelligent child, was just into his crawling phase. He loved to crawl and explore in the way that babies do, with one of his favorite activities being to crawl up the staircase. He could only crawl up, not down the staircase, so we were constantly having to retrieve him from the landings of one of the upper floors. At about this time, he began to avoid crawling up to the third floor. On the odd occasion when he did, he would start crying, and we would rush upstairs to retrieve and comfort him. This spooked us a bit, as babies are reputed to be able to sense things that adults can’t.

At first we had joked that my apparent forgetfulness with the lights was really the work of a ghost, but now that things seemed to be occurring while we were home, the joke was wearing thin. The whole thing was becoming unnerving, especially for Helena. She was the one now that was sure that she had turned off lights, only to find them unaccountably turned back on. I was never as sure about the lights, but her worries were definitely beginning to affect me. In the mornings, while I took my shower, I would find myself worrying about Scott, who was still sleeping in his crib. I would hurry through my shower to check up on him, but thankfully there was never any problem.

One night, in the wee hours of the morning, Helena got up while I was sleeping, to use the bathroom. From the bathroom, which was on the second floor next to our room, she could see the lights burning upstairs. She was entirely positive this time, that they had all been off when we went to bed. She reports that it took all the nerve she could muster to walk up those stairs and shut the lights off. Opening the door to the storage room, and quickly going in to pull the chain to turn that light off, was particularly scary. She fairly flew back down the stairs, crawled into bed, and curled up against me. As she said later, “nothing in the world could have got me out of bed again that night, until the morning came”. I slept through this scene, blissfully unaware.

Helena has a friend who is a bit of a mystic, so she called her up and told her about the goings on. Lorrette is a Metis woman, with sensitive eyes and knowledge of both native and European traditions. She came over to do some sort of reading of the situation. She said she felt a powerful influence, most likely of a young girl, perhaps about five years old. She believed that the girl had died in a fire, shortly after moving away from the townhouse, and her spirit was returning there, as that was the place that she was most familiar with. Lorrette said she had probably had her bedroom in the loft, and that is why the focus of the events was there.

That seemed like a good yarn, but I didn’t put too much stock in it. I worked at a volunteer agency at the time, and occasionally related to the people there that there was something strange about our townhouse. One fellow, a French Canadian from Montreal, named Guy became quite interested. It turned out that he was more than just a die hard fan of the Montreal Canadians; he too claimed to have some psychic abilities. I bade him to come to the house and have a look around if he wanted. One more opinion couldn’t hurt. I was careful not to tell him any details about Lorrette’s reading.

He came over later that week and after a coffee and some hockey talk, he asked to see the loft. I took him upstairs and he did a walk-around of the loft and storage room. Then he went into a slightly spooky bit of a trance. His reading of the situation was eerily similar to Lorrette’s. He too said that he felt the presence of a young child, probably a girl. He didn’t mention anything about a fire, but did ask me if I had found a particular object that he had envisioned. He mentioned something long and thin, perhaps a pipe, with a crosspiece at the end. I told him that I hadn’t come across anything like that, but was impressed that his story was so similar to the other one we had heard.

Things continued to happen, but less frequently, after that. Still, the whole experience had been unsettling enough that we decided to move ( plus, the rent went up). We put in our notice, and appropriately enough, moved out on Halloween night. A few friends helped me move.

We were moving stuff out of the storage room beside the loft, when my friend Marvin came across something poking out of the sawdust insulation between the open rafters in the far end of the storage room. He picked it up, and eyeing it quizzically, asked me if I wanted to take it with me. As I examined it, a chill went through my veins.

It was a long thin piece of bamboo, perhaps three feet long, with an X shaped configuration of black tape at the end. That fit the description of “a pipe, with a crosspiece at the end” pretty well. Perhaps it was the little girl’s home-made magic wand. There was no way that my French Canadian psychic friend could have planted it there; it was too big to conceal, and I had been with him all the time anyway. I told Marvin to put it back where he had found it. I definitely did not want that thing, whatever it was, to follow us to our new home.

Since then, we have had no repetitions of any experiences of this sort in any of the places that we have lived in. Of that, I am glad, and so is my wife. Looking back on it, the experience was interesting, but not one I am eager to live through again. Even though nothing threatening ever happened, it was deeply unsettling to have my normal notions of reality challenged. Many people might think these events to have been misinterpretations of perfectly natural occurrences, or even fabrications. With the passage of time I sometimes have doubts myself. But then I remember the chill I felt when seeing that bamboo object, just as Guy envisioned, and my doubts are dispelled.

 =====================================================

Here's a fictional ghost story that my wife wrote and published.  It is free on Amazon right now.

Beyond the Blue Door

Here's a tale of a haunted house, of a sort.

Really, two haunted houses are involved. But where does the greater evil reside - in the safe family domicile of our everyday world or in the creepy old abandoned farmhouse? And then there’s the question that we must all face eventually. What lies Beyond The Blue Door?

 

Amazon U.S.: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00OX60XJU
Amazon UK:  http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00OX60XJU
Amazon Canada: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B00OX60XJU
Amazon Australia: http://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B00OX60XJU
Amazon Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B00OX60XJU
Amazon Japan: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/B00OX60XJU

The Sappers' War: 12th Field Company Royal Canadian Engineers, Oct 1943 to Sept 1945, now available on Amazon

 The Sappers' War: 12th Field Company Royal Canadian Engineers, Oct 1943 to Sept 1945, now available on Amazon

Note: The book is currently available in Kindle form ($3.99), and will soon be available in a paperback version, also available on Amazon.  A free promotional version will be available during the Remembrance Day week, Nov 8-12, for those on a limited budget.

Are you a history buff, particularly interested in World War 2?  Or, did you have a family member or other relative participate in the conflict and are therefore curious about their experiences?  If so, you might want to read about the journey of a military engineering company, throughout their time in action during the war.

The book focuses on one particular company of soldier/sappers in the Canadian Army, but many of their experiences would be common to any of the Allied units in the European theatre.  Some of the major battles in which they were involved included Ortona, Monte Casino, the Gothic Line, the battles for Ravenna and the Po Valley, the Liberation of Holland and final defeat of the Third Reich.

In addition, some content relates to the experiences of civilians in Britain during that time.  Appendices also look at some of the details of military engineering (e.g. bridging, mines, storm boats, the M-test),  casualties, the Aldershot Riots and other issues of post-war rehabilitation and return to civilian life.

Much of the material comes from company war diaries and related materials, though a brief sketch of the wider campaigns relevant to the experience of these men is included, as are some interesting side-bars (e.g. the unit served alongside the celebrated irregulars known as Popski’s Private Army during their time in Northern Italy).  To get a more “micro” feel for the on-site experiences of the time, some of my own family’s stories are related (a soldier/sapper, a war bride/war worker, a P.O.W., and an Atlantic convoy merchant marine sailor, among others).  The summations of the War Diaries also include much interesting information about day-to-day life, both military and non-military.

So, grab your Lee-Enfield rifle and your mine-detector, and check out the life of a war-time sapper.

U.S.: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

U.K.: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

Germany: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

France: https://www.amazon.fr/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

Spain: https://www.amazon.es/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

Italy: https://www.amazon.it/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

Netherlands: https://www.amazon.nl/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

Japan: https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

Brazil: https://www.amazon.com.br/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

Mexico: https://www.amazon.com.mx/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

Australia: https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

India: https://www.amazon.in/dp/B09HSXN6Q2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Sappers' War: 12th Field Company Royal Canadian Engineers, Oct 1943 to Sept 1945

What follows is a review of the history of the 12th Field Company, Royal Canadian Engineers, primarily relating to the time that the company was in the Italian and Northwestern European theatres during World War II. Though the book focuses on the experiences of a particular company of Canadian military engineers, it also discusses some of the wider issues of the second world war and how it affected the people who lived through the era, civilian and military. Among those are my father (a sapper or military engineer) and mother (a war worker in wartime Britain and ultimately a war bride).

Thus, this is meant to be an informal and unofficial history of the company, written by an interested party in an effort to understand what these men went through during this period, and how that experience affected them and other people who lived through the war. The military aspects of the company's history are there (e.g. fighting, building bridges, detecting mines, maintaining routes), as are the cultural factors that influenced them and their times (e.g. the movies that they watched, the drinking they did, the many diseases they faced, their interactions with the Italian, British and other civilians that they lived among, their worries for the future). Some focus on life on the British home front is also given, via the experiences of my mother and her family.

Since many people had family and relations that lived during this time, it is my hope that the account will be of general interest to them, and to any that have a particular interest in this critical interval in history. Also, though the text relates specifically to Canadian sappers, I believe that many of the experiences will be common to the soldiers and loved ones of other nations who lived through the war, especially Americans and those from Britain and the British Commonwealth.

The primary sources of this document are the 12th Field Company War Diaries and related orders, with some material from The History of the Corps of Royal Canadian Engineers, Volume 2 as well as various official histories by the Department of National Defence. Various other published sources are used as well, especially when discussing the wider issues of the war or the army experience (e.g. Churchill’s history of the war) , or conversely when relating very specific episodes of the war (e.g. Popski’s Private Army in late 1944). Personal accounts of my father’s or mother’s stories also augment the narrative. I have tried to fit those in during appropriate time periods, though some stories are more general and have therefore don’t necessarily relate to the time period being discussed. Nonetheless, they do help capture the essence of “being there” during the war years.

The War Diary is a day by day account of the primary activities of a given unit, as recorded by personnel in the headquarters staff of that unit, and signed off by the commander of the unit. As such, it is an official record, though the writers often brought a bit of their own character into the document. Naturally, as a relatively brief document it can’t hope to capture the complexity of the individual stories of 280 or so men, so the family lore generally has no corresponding entry in the War Diary, though there are sometimes tantalizing hints and near-verifications of these personal accounts.

There are a number of other sources for the book, from official histories to popular history books. I include quotations and references from these works (an eclectic mix), as I believe that they also shed light on different aspects of this period of time, and besides that, are just interesting accounts, in and of themselves.

 

 

Covid-19 - (4) A World-Wide Test of the Mask Law Hypothesis - Detailed Statistics 4, Quatar to Zimbabwe

Covid-19  - (4) A World-Wide Test of the Mask Law Hypothesis - Detailed Statistics 4, Qatar to Zimbabwe

Introduction:

 (note that if you have previously read the introduction to Part 1, this is essentially the same text, so you can skip right to the graphs and results)

The use of masks and mask-laws to prevent Covid-19 infections is obviously a huge, multi-faceted, complex and controversial subject. There are a lot of lines of evidence, sometimes contradictory, ranging from detailed medical studies (e.g. hospital ICU studies), to engineering studies (e.g. viral aerosol particle hang-time indoors),  to ecological studies (how did mask-laws seem to affect infection rates in various situation).

So, intrepidly and perhaps foolishly, I thought I would add to the discussion via looking at how mask-laws seemed to have actually worked around the world, on a national level.  I used publicly available data sources (as outlined below) and relied on primarily graphical evidence, supplemented by simple curve-fitting, to examine and judge the evidence as objectively as I possibly could. I also state the methods that I used and the overall hypothesis that the data will be used to test.

The evidence and my judgments are shown below, and in three more blogs, on a case-by-case basis.  I broke the data in to 4 blogs, as there are some 123 countries that had mask-laws in the data, and I didn't want to overwhelm the reader with that much data all at once. 

An accompanying blog will give my analysis of the overall conclusions, taking into account the evidence of the 123 countries as a whole.  However, by presenting the evidence in this way, it is my intention that anyone (statistician or interested layperson) can look at the data and draw their own conclusions.

As for my own qualifications, I am a statistician (or data scientist, a popular new term) who does operational research for a large Canadian university.  Covid-19 isn't my area of expertise but data analysis of this sort (practical observational studies of the effect of targeted interventions on a population) is a fairly broad area, one with which I am familiar. But, as I say, interested readers should scan through the graphs and narratives and form their own conclusions.

Statement of Hypothesis and Description of Method of Evaluation

For my purposes the Mask-Law Hypothesis can be stated as: "A national mask-law will result in the number of new Covid-19 cases coming down within the one month period after the mask-law date, relative to the trend in the one month period before that date".  It has often expressed in more informal terms as "a mask-law will help bend the curve downwards".

Since observational studies of this sort have many potential confounders, the hypothesis can be restated in a form that attempts to control for these confounders, by analyzing a large number of cases, on the assumption that the effects of these confounding variables will tend to cancel out as the number of cases increases.   The restated form of the hypothesis is then: "National mask-laws will result in new Covid-19 cases coming down within the one month period after the mask-law date, relative to the trend in the one month period before that date, in the vast majority of countries in which the mask-law is implemented".

Below are the detailed, country-by-country statistics for Covid-19 cases by days before and after that particular country's mask-law, as indicated on the source Masks4All website (which provided the mask-law date) and the GitHub repository of Covid-19 statistics (which provided the aggregate number of cases during the study period, by day).

The graphs show:

• Line graphs of aggregate case counts in the 4 week periods before and after the law, to obtain an overall sense of how the numbers evolved during the study period.  Linear and quadratic functions are fit to the data, to give a visual and mathematical basis for determining whether the general trend was up, flat or down in that country during the 8 week period.
• Line graphs with forecasts of cases for the four weeks after the mask-law, based on the trend during the four weeks before the law, along with the actual results during that succeeding four weeks.  This enables a comparison of forecasts and actuals,  to determine whether or not the pre-law trend in cases appeared to be affected by the mask-law.  Generally speaking, the two best fitting functions  of the linear, quadratic, exponential and logarithmic cases are shown (determined by R-square, a conventional measure of model fitness, where the best forms have R-square closest to 1.00).
• A bar graph with the number of new cases each week during that time, as well as the functional form that best fits that data.  This gives a visual and mathematical picture of how new cases varied on a weekly basis.

I use this data to judge how well the evidence supports the mask-law's apparent effectiveness for each country.  Readers may sometimes dispute my opinion, though I think the majority of cases are not too difficult to categorize.  However, although  the evidence for or against the mask-law hypothesis is sometimes quite clear-cut, at other times it is only somewhat persuasive and sometimes it is too inconclusive to render any sort of judgment.

The upper left hand corner graphs, giving the functional forms (visually and mathematically) for the aggregate data are measures of how well the mask-laws seem to be doing in their expected roles (i.e. bending the curve downwards).

• Concave Down -The second order polynomial fit to the data (the yellow line) tends to bend downwards.  This is generally supportive of the mask-laws (positive evidence), though in some cases this could just be the continuation of a trend that began before the law was passed.
• Linear - The second order polynomial and the linear function nearly overlie each other, indicating that the number of new cases was essentially steady during the period.  This would not be supportive of the mask-law's effectiveness (neutral evidence), though it could be argued that the mask-law prevented an exponential increase.
• Concave Up - The second order polynomial fit to the data (the yellow line) tends to bend upwards.  This is generally not supportive of the mask-laws (negative evidence).  Indeed, it could be argued that in these cases the mask-law not only didn't work, but actually contributed to making the situation worse (perhaps by creating a false sense of security).

The upper right hand corner graphs show the forecast of cases, based on the four weeks of data before the mask-law date.  As noted, some alternative trend lines are given, those which best fit the pre-law data (based on their R-square, a statistical measure of goodness-of-fit).

I should note that forecasts of this sort, based on limited data, can be misleading, so you have to use your common sense as well as the statistical R-square measure, when deciding whether they are appropriate.  For example, exponential functions don't generally apply over a very long range of data in the real world (resources eventually run out), so care has to be taken when utilizing them.  Also, a quadratic function can predict a decline in aggregate cases, which is physically impossible, so care must be taken to not rely on this form in these instances.

The actual case counts during the four weeks after the mask-law are also shown.  Again, there are three main possibilities:

• Actuals Below the Trend - If the number of cases are below the forecasts, that indicates that the mask-law appears to have slowed or reversed the trend.  This is generally supportive of the mask law's effectiveness (positive evidence for the mask-law hypothesis).
• Actuals Mirror Trend - If the number of cases are very close to the forecast, that indicates that the mask-law had no observable effect on the trend.  This would not be supportive of the mask- law's effectiveness, but wouldn't indicate that the mask-law was counter-productive (neutral evidence as regards the mask-law hypothesis).
• Actuals Above the Trend - If the number of cases exceeds the forecasts, that indicates that cases grew faster than the pre-existing trend and that the the mask-law did not slow the trend, it may have even sped it up.  This is generally not supportive of the mask-law's effectiveness (negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis).

The lower left hand bar graphs give the number of new cases, on a week-by-week basis, before and after the mask-law.  It also has as best-fit function for the new cases data, to aid the visual interpretation.  There are three main ideal-type cases, as well as many intermediate possibilities:

• The graph has a hump-like shape, with new cases rising before the mask-law date, peaking shortly after the mask-law, then falling.  This is generally supportive of the mask-law's effectiveness (positive evidence for the mask-law hypothesis).
• The graph is more or less flat, with no strong pattern of growth or shrinkage over the course of the eight week period.  This would not be supportive of the mask-law's effectiveness, but wouldn't indicate that the mask-law was counter-productive (neutral evidence as regards the mask-law hypothesis).
• The graph shows steady, often exponential, growth after the mask-law date, compared to before that date.  This is generally not supportive of the mask-law's effectiveness (negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis).

The three lines of evidence are then considered and an overall evaluation is given, via a five-level categorization.   The categories are given below: 

• Category 2: Strong positive evidence.  The aggregate case graph is generally downward, actual cases are below the pre-law forecasts and new cases clearly fall after the mask-law date.
• Category 1: Weak positive evidence.  The majority of the lines of evidence favour the mask-law, but the evidence is relatively weak and/or has some contrary indications. 
• Category 0: Neutral evidence.  None of the lines of evidence show very persuasive evidence, one way or the other.
• Category -1: Weak negative evidence.  The majority of the lines of evidence do not favour the mask-law, but the evidence is relatively weak and/or has some contrary indications.
• Category -2: Strong negative evidence.  The aggregate case graph is generally upward, actual cases are above the pre-law forecasts and new cases clearly rise (often exponentially) after the mask-law date.

Since there are 123 countries in the study, I will  have to break the data into several blogs, just to avoid overloading blogger with graphs.   This is Part 4, with countries from Qatar to Zimbabwe (alphabetically ordered).  Note that not all countries passed mandatory mask laws and therefore not all countries could be included in this study.

Part 1, with countries from Algeria to Cuba is in the link below:

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/09/covid-19-1-world-wide-test-of-mask-law.html

Part 2, with countries from Czechia to Kazakhstanis in the link below:

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/09/covid-19-2-world-wide-test-of-mask-law.html

Part 3, with countries from Kenya to Portugal is in the link below: 

https://dodecahedronbooks.blogspot.com/2021/09/covid-19-3-world-wide-test-of-mask-law.html

 

 

Qatar

Aggregate Cases Mask Law Date: 22/04/2020

Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before. 

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The yellow quadratic function is concave up and the blue bar graph of new cases shows a strong upward trend over the entire study period.  Post-law actuals are higher than the best-fit pre-law forecast (note that the yellow quadratic is a better fit than the red exponential). Thus, this is considered strong negative evidence against the mask law hypothesis.

Roumania

Mask Law Date: 15/05/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Down 

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals mirror the best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases lower after mask-law date than before. 

Categorization: 0 (Neutral Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic curve is concave down and the new case counts are lower in the post-law period than previously.  However, the downward trend began before the mask law date and cases plateaued after that time; also actuals are slightly above the best-fit forecast line (the yellow quadratic).  So, so this is categorized as neutral evidence.

Rwanda

Mask Law Date: 19/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Close to Linear

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher  after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 0 (Neutral Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function nearly overlies the linear.  The bar graph of new cases shows that there was actually declining trend in cases pre-law, then a strong increase in cases after the mask-law date, finally followed by a substantial decline.  Post-law cases were higher than pre-law forecasts.  So, this evidence is mixed, so it will be classed as neutral.

San Marino

Mask Law Date: 30/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Down

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals less  than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases lower  after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 1 (Weak Positive Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic is concave down, but the bar graph of new cases shows that the downward trend was established well before the mask law date.  Post-law actuals were less than pre-law forecasts, however.  Given that the new case count was somewhat lower than the existing trend, this is classed as weak positive evidence.

 

Sao Tome and Principe 

Mask Law Date: 22/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function is concave up and the bar graph shows a big jump shortly after the mask law date, then declines and stays at a level that is much higher than in the pre-law period. The pre-law data is too sparse for a reasonable projection to be made, but it is much higher than the linear forecast that was available.  However, the large increase that occurred after the mask-law date is difficult to reconcile as anything other than strong negative evidence  against the mask-law hypothesis.

 

 

Saudi Arabia 

Mask Law Date: 30/05/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals  higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic is concave up and the new cases bar graph shows an increase in cases after the mask law date, which remain substantially higher than in the pre-law period.  Actuals are a bit higher than the pre-law best fit forecast.  Therefore, this is classed as strong negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis.

 

Senegal

Mask Law Date: 20/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic is concave up and the new case count graph shows cases rising consistently after the mask law date.  Post-law actuals are much higher than pre-law forecasts.  So, this is categorized as strong negative evidence.

Serbia 

Mask Law Date: 29/04/2020 

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Down

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals lower  than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases lower after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 2 (Strong Positive Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic is concave down, though the blue bar graph shows that the decreasing trend in new cases began before shortly the mask-law date.  However, post-law actuals are well below the best-fit pre-law forecasts.  This, then is classed as strong positive evidence.

Sierra Leone 

Mask Law Date: 22/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals are higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases are higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function is strongly concave up and the new case counts rise consistently and exponentially after the mask law date.  Actuals are much higher than predicted from pre-law forecasts.  So, this is classed as strong negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis. 

Singapore 

Mask Law Date: 14/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals are generally higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases are higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function is concave up and the case counts increase dramatically after the mask-law date, though they do plateau.  Post-law actuals are generally higher than pre-law forecasts.  Thus, this is strong negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis.

 

Slovakia

Mask Law Date: 25/03/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: Again, the quadratic function is concave up and the new case bar graph shows an exponential rise throughout the study period.  In addition, post-law actuals are somewhat higher than pre-law best-fit forecasts.  So, this is strong negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis.

 

  

Slovenia

Mask Law Date: 29/03/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Close to Linear

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals lower than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases are lower after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 2 (Strong Positive Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic and linear functions overlie each other.  The new case count bar graph shows the hump-like form, indicative of a strong positive evidence instance (rising cases before the mask-law date followed by declining cases after the mask-law date.  Post-law actuals are below the best-fit pre-law forecast.  Thus, this is strong positive evidence, in favour of the mask-law hypothesis.

 

 

South Africa

Mask Law Date: 01/05/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function is strongly concave up and the bar graph of new cases shows a picture-perfect example of an exponential rise.  As well, the post-law actuals are considerably higher than pre-law forecasts.  Therefore this case is an excellent example of strong negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis.

 

Spain 

Mask Law Date: 02/05/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Down

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases lower after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 0 (Neutral Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function is concave down and the count of new cases is steadily downwards and lower in the post-law period than in the pre-law period.  However it is clear from the bar graph that the downward trend had started well before the mask-law date.  In addition, the post-law actuals are a bit higher than the pre-law best-fit forecast (the logarithmic).  Thus, though cases did drop steadily, this is the continuation of a continuing trend, and is therefore classed as neutral evidence.

 

Sri Lanka 

Mask Law Date: 11/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic is strongly concave up and weekly case counts rise considerably after the mask-law date (they are down somewhat in the final week, though still much higher than pre-law).  Also, post-law cases are higher than pre-law forecasts.   Therefore this is categorized as strong negative evidence.

Switzerland 

Mask Law Date: 29/10/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals lower  than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases decrease after mask-law date compared with before.

Categorization: 2 (Strong Positive Evidence)  

Comment: The quadratic function is slightly concave up, but the weekly new case count bar graph has the characteristic hump shape of a case that is strongly positive for the mask-law hypothesis.  In addition, post-law actuals are below pre-law best-fit forecasts (the yellow quadratic).  Thus, this is categorized as strong positive evidence in favour of the mask-law hypothesis.

Thailand

Mask Law Date: 25/03/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals lower than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases lower after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 2 (Strong Positive Evidence)  

Comment: The quadratic function is slightly concave up but the weekly new case bar graph shows the hump-like form, with a peak just after the mask-law date, that is indicative of strong positive evidence.  Also, the post-law actuals are below the pre-law best-fit forecast.  Thus this is classed as strong positive evidence for the mask-law hypothesis.

Timor-Leste

Mask Law Date: 26/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Down

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals lower than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases lower after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 2 (Strong Positive Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic is strongly concave down and the weekly new case graph shows a steep reduction in cases after the mask-law date.  In addition, the post-law actuals are well below the pre-law forecasts.  Thus, though the Ns are rather small, the drop in cases is sufficiently convincing to call this strong positive evidence.

Trinidad and Tobago

Mask Law Date: 06/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Down

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals lower than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases lower after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 0 (Neutral Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic is concave down and the weekly new case counts are far lower after the mask-law date.  Actuals are lower than forecasts.  However, the weekly bar graph shows that this is the continuation of a trend that began well before the mask-law, so this instance is classed as neutral evidence, neither for or against the mask-law hypothesis.

Tunisia 

Mask Law Date: 07/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Close to Linear 

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals lower than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases lower after mask-law date than before. 

Categorization: 0 (Neutral Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic and linear functions almost overlie each other.  The weekly new case count does show counts of new cases dropping after the mask-law date, and post-law actuals are lower than pre-law forecasts.  However, the weekly bar graph of new cases shows that this trend appears to have have begun several weeks before the mask-law date.  So, this case will also be categorized as neutral evidence.

 

Turkey

Mask Law Date: 03/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 0 (Neutral Evidence)  

Comment: The quadratic function is concave up.   The graph does have the hump-like form of a strongly positive case, but the peak is shifted until well into the post-law period.  Post-law actuals are higher than pre-law forecasts.  Thus, the overall conclusion is that this is neutral evidence, as regards the mask-law hypothesis.

 

Uganda

Mask Law Date: 06/05/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function function is strongly concave up.  The bar graph of weekly new cases rises in an almost exponential manner, save week 3 after the mask law, which drops back to pre-law levels, after which cases jump tremendously again.  Post-law actuals are much higher than pre-law forecasts.  So this  is classed as strong negative evidence.

 

Ukraine 

Mask Law Date: 07/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Weak Negative Evidence)  

Comment: The quadratic function is strongly concave up and the weekly new case counts rise in an exponential manner throughout the period.  Post-law actuals are much higher than best-fit pre-law forecasts.  So, this is strongly negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis.

United Arab Emirates

Mask Law Date: 28/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals mirror than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function is concave up and cases rise throughout the period in an exponential manner.  Post-law actuals mirror pre-law forecasts.  So, this is strongly negative evidence, as regards the mask-law hypothesis.

 

United Kingdom

Mask Law Date: 15/06/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Close to Linear

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals about the same as best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases lower after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 0 (Neutral Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function and the linear function overlie each other. Weekly case counts are low during the post-law period, relatively to pre-law.  However, the bar chart clearly shows that cases began falling well before the mask-law date.  The post-law actuals are actually lower than the best-fit forecast (the quadratic), though all of the forecast functions give rather similar results, and the actuals are midway between them.  So, given the trends, this is categorized as neutral evidence.

 

Uruguay

Mask Law Date: 23/04/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Down

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases fall after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 2 (Strong Positive Evidence)  

Comment: The quadratic function is concave down and case counts are lower after the mask law than before.  Cases rise in the first week post-law, but then quickly fall back down.  Post-law actuals are somewhat above the best-fit pre-law forecast line (the logarithmic), but well below the others.  So, though there is some mixed evidence, this is classed as strong positive evidence for the mask law, given the drop-off in cases after the mask-law.

 

 

Uzbekistan

Mask Law Date: 22/03/2020

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence)  

Comment: The quadratic function is strongly concave up and the weekly new case counts rise in an exponential fashion after the mask law date.  Post-law actuals are far above pre-law best-fit forecasts.  So this is a prime example of strongly negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis.

 

Venezuela 

Mask Law Date: 18/03/2020 

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence)   

Comment: The quadratic is strongly concave up and weekly case counts climb substantially after the mask-law date.  Post-law actuals are higher than forecasts.  Thus, this is strong negative evidence against the mask-law hypothesis.

 

Vietnam

Mask Law Date: 18/03/2020 

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher  than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before.

Categorization: 1 (Weak Positive Evidence) 

Comment: The quadratic function is concave up.  The bar graph has the hump-like shape of indicative of positive evidence, but the peak comes well into the post-mask law period, so this is classed as weak positive evidence.

Zambia

Mask Law Date: 18/04/2020 

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up 

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals higher than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before. 

Categorization: -1 (Weak Negative Evidence)  

Comment: The quadratic function is strongly concave up and case counts rise exponentially after the mask-law date, though they do fall back down at the final week.  Post-law actuals are well above the best-fit forecast line, for the most part.  Given the drop in cases in the final week, this is an classed as weak negative evidence.

 

  

Zimbabwe

Mask Law Date: 01/05/2020 

Aggregate Cases Functional Form: Concave Up

Forecasts vs Actuals:  Actuals above  than best-fit forecasts.

New Cases Bar Graph: New cases higher after mask-law date than before. 

Categorization: -2 (Strong Negative Evidence)  

Comment: The quadratic is strongly concave up.  Case counts remain low after the mask-law date for most of the post-law period, but then increase dramatically at the end.  Actuals are slightly below the best-fit forecast, but also rise sharply at the end.  So, given the large increase at week 4 of the post-law period, this is best considered as strongly negative evidence.

A Quick Summary of these 31 Cases

(+2) Strong Positive Evidence in favour of the mask-law hypothesis: 6 countries

(+1) Weak Positive Evidence in favour of the mask-law hypothesis: 2 countries

 (0) Neutral Evidence, neither for or against the mask-law hypothesis: 7 countries

(-1) Weak Negative Evidence against the mask-law hypothesis: 1 countries

(-2) Strong Negative Evidence against the mask-law hypothesis: 15 countries