Friday, 20 November 2015

Current Prices of Ebooks vs Print Books (Amazon Top 100, 2013 and 2014)

Since this blog is quite detailed, here is the executive summary of how late 2015 prices of ebooks compare to the prices of the print versions of those books, for the books in the 2013 and 2014 Amazon Top 100 lists:


Basically, if pricing the ebook higher than the print book is seen as an effort to protect a book or its writer from some sort of psychological devaluation, the favored books are high priced, literary fiction or thrillers written by older established authors and published by the big publishing houses.

Briefly summarizing:

·         In nearly half of all cases (45%), the ebook version was priced higher than the print book version in late 2015.

·         This was more pronounced for the 2014 Amazon Top 100 books, relative to the 2013 Amazon Top 100 books.  So, recency seemed to have some effect on this.

·         Books that were highly ranked (in the first quartile) during the year that they were first published are much more likely to have their ebook priced higher than the print version by late 2015.

·         Current ranking didn’t seem to have nearly as significant an effect, in this regard.

·         There was some evidence that male writers were more likely to have the ebook version of their titles priced higher than the print version.  However, this varied by the month in which prices were recorded, so the evidence is not strong.

·         More highly educated writers tended to have the ebook priced higher than the print book, more than did the writers without known university degrees.

·         This was also true of writers with more traditional subjects of study, such as English, History and Journalism.

·         Older writers were much more likely to have their ebooks priced higher than their print versions.

·         This tendency to price ebooks higher than print books was very much a traditional publisher characteristic, especially the big five publishing houses.  Indies rarely did this.

·         Books that were highly priced during their initial publishing year were also much more likely to have their ebook priced higher than their print book.

·         In terms of genre, the Literary Fiction books were very likely to have their ebook version priced higher than their print book versions.  This was also true for the Thriller category and Science Fiction, though to a lesser extent.  The opposite was true in Romance, where the ebook version was far more likely to be the inexpensive version of a title.



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Many observers have noted a shift in book pricing on Amazon, in the recent past.  This seems to have occurred largely in the big publishers’ books, since they won the right to return to  “agency” pricing earlier this year.  Basically, this means that the publishers set the book price, and the retailer (Amazon) takes a standard cut of that.


Prior to the return of agency, Amazon was price setting, giving up some of their share of the book price in the form of lower prices to the consumer, in order to increase unit sales.  The share paid to the publisher stayed the same.  They felt that lower prices would create the circumstances for greater book sales overall, more than making up for the lower prices; the result would be more money for everybody involved.  Publishers didn’t care for that idea; they thought it was eroding the price point at which consumers will willing to buy books, which they considered ultimately harmful to the traditional publishing industry, especially the print book side of the market.  


Traditional publishers have long standing relationships with print book chain stores (basically a lock on distribution through that market), so they didn’t want that sector to be ultimately displaced by Amazon and other on-line retailers.  On-line retailers are fairly agnostic as to publisher type, Indie, small publisher, or large publishing house, so the bigger traditional publishers would be giving up an advantage if most book sales pivoted to on-line retailers.


So, if big publishers are “protecting” the value proposition of print books, and the perceived quality of the traditionally published book, via higher prices, we might well expect them to set ebook prices quite high, relative to print book prices.  Indeed, they might well set the price of their ebooks considerably higher than their lowest priced paper option (usually trade paperback or mass market paperback).  They would hope that such pricing will maintain higher psychological price point in the minds of consumers and protect their long-time specialty, the paper book, from the inroads of the easier to produce ebook.  We might expect them to “hold the line” on particular types of books more than others - say, books by well known authors or books of high perceived quality (i.e. literary fiction).


Generally speaking, publishers have been putting the price of ebooks up since reclaiming the agency pricing model.  Sales of ebooks have fallen, but publishers feel that is worth it, to obtain higher profit margins on each book sold.  Since we don’t have access to their detailed financial data we are in no position to know whether or not that is true.


But we can do an analysis of current book prices, in a selection of books for sale on Amazon to see just how prevalent the practice of setting ebook prices higher than print book prices is, and whether it is focussed in particular types of books.  I am using my dataset of the “Amazon Top 100” of 2013 and 2014 to do such a comparison.  These are the 100 books that Amazon declared to be their readers’ favourite new books of 2013 and 2014, based primarily on sales.  I have maintained this dataset for general research purposes and augmented it with other publicly available data, such as the gender, age, and educational level of the writers of these books.


The prices were recorded separately on October 10, 2015 and November 10, 2015.  Most of the following graphs use the November data, though the October data is also noted in the text.


Naturally, we can’t necessarily assume that the findings based on this subset of books is transferable to the entire set of books on Amazon.    But it is a fairly broad selection of popular books (many genres, a wide diversity of writers, many original price points, many publishers, etc), so it should provide some pretty good evidence of what is going on in the industry, in terms of pricing strategies.


One final point – there is no golden rule for what the proper price of a book is.  Economists would say, it is whatever consumers are willing to pay.  However, they would also say that it should eventually equilibrate at the costs of production plus some reasonable profit margin.  By this reasoning, since the costs of production of an ebook are less than a print book (no paper, printing, or shipping costs), ebooks ought to be less expensive than print books.  If they aren’t, the producers must be using strategies to prevent that result from occurring.


1 – Overall Comparison of Ebook vs Pbook Price, in late 2015


As the graph shows, the ebook version of titles in the Amazon Top 100 lists for 2013 and 2014 were priced as high, or higher than, the print book version, nearly half the time, during the survey date of November 10, 2015.  This was also true on the survey date of October 10, 2015 (not shown), so it appears that pricing decisions do not change radically from month to month.  By the way, if you happen to be reading this in black and white, the bar to the left (blue, in colour) corresponds to Ebook price greater than or equal to Print Book price.  The bar on the right (red, in colour) corresponds to Ebook price less than Print Book price.  That will be true for the other graphs as well.


Note that in some cases there was only an ebook version of the book; those were excluded from the analyses.  There were 17 such books in all, out of the 200 books in the study. 






2 – Ebook vs Print Book Prices, by Year of Publishing


Book published in 2013 were more likely to have their ebook version priced lower than their print book version, than books published in 2014.  This result was also true, when examining prices in October 2015 rather than November 2015.


This might be a result of publishers more willing to ease off on protecting the print version value proposition, as the book gets less current, and presumably less valuable, given that sales of most titles tend to decline with time.






3 – Ebook vs Print Book Prices, by Rank Quartile in Year that they were Published


By quartile, we refer to the ranks 1 to 25 as quartile 1, ranks 26-50 as quartile 2, ranks 51-75 as quartile 3 and ranks 76 to 100 as quartile 4.  Since this data includes both the 2013 and 2014 Amazon Top 100, each of those quartiles will each include about 50 books (e.g. quartile 1 will include ranks 1 to 25 from both years, totalling 50 books), less those books excluded from the analysis as they only had an ebook version published.  In the graph, the quartiles run from left to right for each subject grouping.


Books that were ranked highly in their first year (i.e. the “Amazon Top 100” year) were far more likely to have their ebook priced higher than their print version, in November 2015.  Apparently, publishers were more likely to emphasize the print version of the book, if it did very well in its original run.  For books that did less well (in the other three quartiles), the ebook tended to be priced lower than the print version.





4 – Ebook vs Print Book Prices, by Rank in November and October 2015


Interestingly, the current rank of a book had much less effect on its ebook vs print book price, than the rank in the original publishing year.  There is only a slight tendency for books with lower current (November 2015) rankings to have their ebook priced higher than their print book.  The October 2015 data did show a greater tendency in this regard, though. 






5 – Ebook vs Print Book Prices, by Gender of Writer



In November of 2015, pricing of ebooks vs print books was almost identical for books written by males and females.  However, this was a case where the October data showed a different trend, where books written by males were more likely to have the ebook priced higher than the print version.  So, there is no clear trend in the gender analysis.






6 – Ebook vs Print Book Price by Education Level of Writer

As the graph below shows, books written by writers known to have university degrees tend to be more likely to have the ebook version priced higher than the print book version.  The converse was true for books written by writers without degrees, where the ebook tended to be cheaper than the print version of the book.  Using October 2015 prices (not shown), the trends were similar, and in fact a bit more pronounced.
 




7 – Ebook vs Print Book Price by Educational Subject of Writer

The differences here tended to be fairly slight.  There is, perhaps, limited evidence that books written by writers with more traditional backgrounds have their ebooks priced higher than their print versions more often than writers from less traditional writers.  The October based data (not shown) is broadly similar.




8 – Ebook vs Print Book Price by Age of Writer


Age of writer appears to be significantly related to the likelihood of the ebook version costing more than the print book version.  Older writers are more likely to have the ebook set at a higher price than the print book version; the converse is true for younger writers.  The effect appears to be quite strong.  Similar results obtain for the October 2015 prices.



9 – Ebook vs Print Book Price by Publisher Type


This graph is arguably the one that most directly supports our thesis, that traditional publishers are attempting to protect their value proposition by pricing their ebook versions higher than their print book versions.  The big five publishing houses show this tendency, very clearly.  Smaller publishers practice this pricing strategy to a more limited extent, and independently published (or self-published) books almost never display this strategy.  Using October 2015 pricing figures showed an almost identical trend.






10– Ebook vs Print Book Price by Price Range in the Publishing Year


Books that were high priced in their initial publishing year are much more likely to have their ebook priced higher than their print book version, than is the case for books that were moderately or low priced.  Using the October pricing data, the trend was similar, though more pronounced.  




11– Ebook vs Print Book Price by Genre


Books in the Literary Fiction genre were very likely to have their ebook version priced higher than their print version.  This also tended to happen with Thrillers and Science Fiction/Fantasy, but at a less pronounced level.  The converse was true in the Romance and Other categories, where the ebooks tended to be cheaper than the print book versions.  Using the October price data, the trends were similar. 




Summary

Briefly summarizing:

·         In nearly half of all cases (45%), the ebook version was priced higher than the print book version in late 2015.

·         This was more pronounced for the 2014 Amazon Top 100 books, relative to the 2013 Amazon Top 100 books.  So, recency seemed to have some effect on this.

·         Books that were highly ranked (in the first quartile) during the year that they were first published are much more likely to have their ebook priced higher than the print version.

·         Current ranking didn’t seem to have nearly as significant an effect, in this regard.

·         There was some evidence that male writers were more likely to have the ebook version of their titles priced higher than the print version.  However, this varied by the month in which prices were recorded, so the evidence is not strong.

·         More highly educated writers tended to have the ebook priced higher than the print book, more than did the writers without known university degrees.

·         This was also true of writers with more traditional subjects of study, such as English, History and Journalism.

·         Older writers were much more likely to have their ebooks priced higher than their print versions.

·         This tendency to price ebooks higher than print books was very much a traditional publisher characteristic, especially the big five publishing houses.  Indies rarely did this.

·         Books that were highly priced during their initial publishing year were also much more likely to have their ebook priced higher than their print book.

·         In terms of genre, the Literary Fiction books were very likely to have their ebook version priced higher than their print book versions.  This was also true for the Thriller category and Science Fiction, though to a lesser extent.  The opposite was true in Romance, where the ebook version was far more likely to be the inexpensive version of a title.


Basically, if pricing the ebook higher than the print book is seen as an effort to protect a book or its writer from some sort of psychological devaluation, the favoured books are high priced, literary fiction or thrillers written by older established authors and published by the big publishing houses.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And after all that hard work, here's a nice Science Fiction book by Helena Puumala, for only $3.99 (free if you are on Amazon Kindle Unlimited):

Kati of Terra Book 1: Escape from the Drowned Planet
 Amazon U.S. http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00811WVXO
Amazon U.K. http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00811WVXO 
Amazon Canada: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B00811WVXO
Amazon Australia: http://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B00811WVXO  
Amazon Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B00811WVXO
Amazon Japan:  http://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B00811WVXO



 Or, you can try a short story by the writer of this blog, for 99 cents.

The Magnetic Anomaly
Amazon U.S.: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0176H22B4
Amazon U.K. http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0176H22B4
Amazon Can: http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B0176H22B4
Amazon Australia: http://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B0176H22B4
Amazon Germany: http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B0176H22B4
Amazon Japan: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/B0176H22B4




No comments:

Post a Comment