Monday, 21 October 2019

Asteroid Psyche – The Mission to a Metal World – A Talk by Linda Elkins-Tanton


Psyche – The Mission to a Metal World – A Talk by Linda Elkins-Tanton

On Monday Oct 7, 2019, Dr. Linda Elkins-Tanton (a.k.a. Lindy), project lead for the Psyche Asteroid Mission planned by NASA did a presentation at the University of Alberta, concerning the upcoming mission.  It was well attended and well received and quite fascinating.  Note that my blog on the talk is based primarily on notes that I took, so between the difficulty of taking down notes quickly, and the difficulty of reading my own handwriting, there may be some mistakes or omissions.

The Speaker

Dr. Elkins-Tanton is a professor at Arizona State University, and director of the School of Earth and Space Exploration at that university.  She is a geologist and an expert in planetary scientist and evolution.  She has also been a professor at M.I.T. (her degrees in geology and geo-chemistry are from there), as well as working at Brown and St. Mary’s College and worked in the private sector for a number of years.
I might also add that she is an excellent speaker who transmitted her enthusiasm and knowledge of these subjects to the audience very well, and with an easy style and grace that helped us understand the sometimes difficult subject matter that underlies the mission.  She also did an excellent job of explaining the details of the rather arduous job of persuading NASA to pick one particular mission over the many others that are constantly being reviewed.

Getting Funding for the Mission and the Mission Schedule

Being chosen by NASA for a mission, is a mission in itself, as Dr. Elkins-Tanton made clear.  I have also heard this emphasized in other NASA-project related talks, such as the New Horizons mission to Pluto.  There is a lot of money and scientific prestige at stake, and many projects compete to receive funding and other forms of NASA support.  In this case, about 30 teams began the competition in 2011, and that was whittled down to 5 by 2015, which included the Psyche proposal.
At the final proposal competition, the Psyche team had a very visually impressive “mission trailer” (basically a short movie), as well as many eye-catching illustrations, by artist Peter Rubin, who has done a great deal of work for very well-known movies and video games.  He has a Canadian connection (possibly even local via Electronic Arts), as his web-site states “I'm a US citizen married to a Canadian; I live in Los Angeles and divide my time between there and the Great White North.”
The trailer and other artwork is pretty amazing, and no doubt helped to sway the NASA judges, though obviously the scientific merit of the project had to be the primary consideration.  Still, sizzle and steak generally work together, in such matters, or it could be restated as “imagination and science”.
Note that the picture above captures the period just after the asteroid (then planetesimal) Psyche has been hit by another body, with the consequent melting and partial disaggregation, due to the immense amount of kinetic energy that would result from the collision.
Along with the movie about the collision which probably created Psyche, the NASA judges were provided with a “flip book” based on the movie, so that they could quickly flip the pictures and “see” the movie, just like people do when they are kids and get a flip book in a cereal box.  That’s because the video couldn’t be included in the formal documents for the presentation, so the flip-book was provided instead, to get around that restriction.
So, with the help of science and art, the proposal won the big prize in 2016, which included funding to the tune of $863 million (U.S.).  I should also note that this mission was funded under the “Discovery” class, which is a class of missions below the “Flagship” class, which get higher funding and publicity – these would generally be the “big” missions, such as Mars lander missions.  The “New Horizons” class is on par with the Discovery class, though the Pluto mission, which is probably the most famous New Horizons mission, certainly got the public’s attention, very possibly equivalent to a Flagship mission (or maybe that’s just me).

The Spacecraft and the Journey to Psyche

The spacecraft is now in the building and design stage.  The main industry partner (an industry partner is a necessary condition for these missions, as stipulated by NASA) is a corporation called Maxar Technology, via the SSL (Space Systems Loral) company that they own.  It also has a Canadian connection, formerly being MDA, a Canadian satellite company.
The most interesting aspect of this, is that the spacecraft will be using solar-electric propulsion for part of the trip, which has been a specialty of this company, used to place satellites in high Earth orbit.  The other interesting aspect, is that this allowed the project to come in at a much lower price than NASA expected, about $100 million less.
The spacecraft will by about 3 meters by  2 meters, or roughly 10 feet by 6.5 feet.  It will be fitted with a number of instruments:

  • Gamma-ray and neutron spectrometers, to analyse the surface composition (these would be emitted from cosmic ray collisions on the surface, which would be intercepted and analysed by the spacecraft, while orbiting the asteroid).
  • Cameras to photograph the surface of Psyche.
  • Magnetometers to measure the magnetic field around the asteroid.
  • Some ten solar panels, for electricity, which will be equivalent in area to a tennis court,
  • An X-band antenna for communication.  There is also a DSOC, explained below, though radio communication will still be needed.
  • DSOC, a laser-based technique for sending information back to Earth, which will utilize super-conducting nano-wires.  This will be a test case for the technology, its first major use by NASA.  It will permit far greater bandwidth than conventional radio transmission, though it has the disadvantage of not penetrating clouds.  During cloudy conditions, the data will be stored by Earth-based satellites and relayed to Earth once the weather clears.
  • An SPT ion thruster, which needs a big box of Xenon for fuel (reaction mass).  The xenon will be ionized, and then accelerated by an electric field, resulting in it shooting out of the thruster to provide propulsion via the usual conservation of momentum principle utilized by chemical rockets.  Basically, a lot of the spacecraft will be a big 960 kilogram box of xenon fuel.

It is expected to be launched in 2022 by either an Atlas 4 or Falcon Heavy rocket and will reach Psyche in 2026.  The mission plan includes a gravity assist via a Mars flyby in 2023, to help it on its way to Psyche.  Psyche is in the Asteroid Belt, between Mars and Jupiter, a long way out, so the mission length will total about 2.904 billion kilometers.


The spacecraft mission is planned to include 4 orbits of the asteroid, with each orbit getting the craft closer and closer to Psyche.  There is some uncertainty about this, though, as we don’t yet know the shape of the gravity field around Psyche, which will affect the details of the orbits.  This was essentially the case for the Rosetta mission to a comet as well.  With small bodies, we just can’t be sure what they are like until we get pretty close to them.
In any case, the orbits should last for about a year, at which time the orbiter will become a “lander”, though it won’t be a soft landing (i.e. it will be crashed into the surface).
Another notable feature of the mission is that results will be made public, via the internet, within 30 minutes of the signals being received.  Though, if there are any freaky artificial monoliths there, I doubt they will keep that promise. :)😊

The Science of the Asteroid Psyche – The Mission to a Metal World

Spacecraft missions are exciting, but they need a purpose, and that purpose is science and discovery.  And the mission to Psyche promises to deliver a lot of interesting science.
First off, will this really be a metal world?  And what does that mean, anyway?
We can’t really be sure what we will find until we get there, but there is good reason to believe that Psyche has major metal content.  At one time, it was thought to be up to 90% metal, but some recent observations imply that it might be more like 30-60% metal.
The reason that Psyche is interesting, is its unusual apparent density, which seems to be about 4.0, in terms of specific gravity (grams per cubic centimeter).  Other asteroids are considerably less dense than that, often between 2 and 3.  For comparison, Earth’s density is about 5.5.
The presence of high metal content (which is more dense than rock) would account for Psyche’s high density.  The metals involved are expected to be iron and nickel, as those are the main constituents of the deep interior of the Earth, and iron-nickel meteorites have been found on Earth, which establishes that such material exists in space as well.
There are some uncertainties in the measure, however.  Estimating density requires knowing the volume of the body and the mass contained in the body. For volume, we need to know its size and shape, but our best Hubble photos of Psyche only span two pixels, so we can’t be all that sure about its dimensions.  That said, with the Hubble photos, as well as radar signals, it is thought that Psyche is probably somewhat oblong and is about 200 km in radius.
As for its mass, that is inferred from its gravitational interactions with nearby bodies, which makes that a tricky estimate too.  However, our best estimates still say that Psyche is substantially heavier than normal and probably accounts for about one percent of the total mass of the Asteroid Belt.
So, how did this unusual body form?  The basic hypothesis is that it was the result of a collision (or maybe several) between some large bodies in the early development of the solar system, probably within the first 1.5 million years.  Theory says that larger bodies (such as planets) were formed by multiple collisions and agglomerations over several million years, so collisions are assumed to be rather frequent in the early stages of a solar systems origin.
In Psyche’s case, it is thought that a “hit and run” collision occurred, with the core of a protoplanetary object.  These objects would have been hot, because of radioactive decay of hot, short-lived radioactive elements that would have been abundant early in the solar system’s history.  Those elements would have been made during the supernova of a previously existing large star, which created the seed matter for the sun and planets, and would have “burned out” by now, 4.5 billion years later.
So, two hot, possibly molten bodies collided, with one glancing off the other and ending up who-knows-where, while the other stayed in the Asteroid Belt and became Psyche.  It is thought that the molten metal of the collision would re-coalesce and freeze in space, creating the unusual metal-heavy object Psyche.
There are some interesting consequences of this theory.  One is that Psyche might look pretty weird, with unusual topography:
·       There may be large and sharp “contract scarps” caused by shrinking as the metal cooled (iron-nickel would be about 7% more dense as it freezes than when it is molten).
·       There could also be sulphur-rich volcanoes, as sulphur would be excluded from the melt and separate out, rising to the surface, creating these features.
·       The craters caused by later collisions could be quite strange looking.  Lab experiments on high speed collisions with metal matrixes indicate that the crater edges don’t fall back the way that they do on Earth or the moon, but could become “frozen” before the rebound that craters undergo in rocky environments.
There is also the possibility that Psyche will have an unusual magnetic field.  Assuming that the body had a dynamo (rotating iron-nickel core) in its early stages, that could be “frozen in” as Psyche cooled and might still be there, rather like a powerful bar magnet.  If so, one wonders whether it might have some interesting interactions with the solar wind.
All of this is conjecture, though.  So far, we have some long-distance measurements, lots of theory, some relevant lab experiments and many Monte Carlo computer simulations.  The proof of the pudding will be in the eating, or in this case, the close-in views and measurements that we should see in about 6 or 7 years time, assuming that all goes well.




Now that you have read of some cutting edge science, you should consider reading some Science Fiction.  How about a short story, set in the Arctic, with some alien and/or paranormal aspects.  Only 99 cents on Amazon.

The Magnetic Anomaly: A Science Fiction Story

“A geophysical crew went into the Canadian north. There were some regrettable accidents among a few ex-military who had become geophysical contractors after their service in the forces. A young man and young woman went temporarily mad from the stress of seeing that. They imagined things, terrible things. But both are known to have vivid imaginations; we have childhood records to verify that. It was all very sad. That’s the official story.”




“The Zoo Hypothesis”, an Alien Invasion Story

Here’s a story giving a possible scenario for the so-called Zoo Hypothesis, known in Star Trek lore as the Prime Directive.  It’s an explanation sometimes given to account for a mystery in the Search for Intelligent Life, known as The Great Silence, or Fermi’s Paradox.
Basically, Enrico Fermi argued (quite convincingly, to many observers), that there had been ample time for an alien intelligence to colonize the galaxy since its formation, so where are they?  The Zoo Hypotheses says that they are out there, but have cordoned off the Earth from contact, until we are sufficiently evolved or culturally advanced to handle the impact of alien contact.

This story takes a humorous tongue in cheek approach to that explanation.  It also features dogs and sly references to Star Trek.  Talk about man’s Best Friend.

Amazon Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B076RR1PGD







Tuesday, 8 October 2019

Some Non-Random Thoughts About the Importance of Randomization


Some Non-Random Thoughts About the Importance of Randomization

I was asked a question about randomization on Quora, which I think is of interest to a more general audience, as well.  So, my comments are below:

What is randomization? What are the different methods of random selection?

In statistical and data science, randomization is important for a number of reasons, both theoretical and practical.  Here is a short passage from the Collins Dictionary of Statistics (2005 edition):

“Randomization is the process ensuring that, when possible, the elements in a statistical experiment are carried about in a random order.
Randomization is one of the key principles in designing an experiment.  It is a safeguard against systematic errors.”

Here are some of my own observations as a practicing statistician involved in operational research - much more could be said on the subject (and has been by some extremely clever people over the centuries):

1 - Surveys

In surveys, randomization is the key principle for a scientific sample, one where you can abstract results from the sample to the larger population from which it is drawn. To pick the random sample, you have to have a representative sample frame, which allows you to select the sample from the population of interest. If you can be sure that the sample frame includes all cases in the population of interest (e.g. a list of every worker in a firm), and that the people selected will actually answer your survey, you can pick a random sample of those people with confidence that their answers will be very similar to what you could get from surveying the entire population of interest.

These days, however, people are fatigued with surveys (there are too many of them), so selection bias is a real problem.  Simply put, most people hang up the phone on the surveyor, so it isn’t possible to be sure that the few that answer are typical of the population.  Because of that, the results of the survey can’t really be trusted.  Election polling has had problems during the recent past, often predicting incorrect outcomes.  And as polls lose credibility, people become even less willing to participate, which exacerbates the problem.

Nobody has yet come up with a solution to this issue.  Perhaps in the future, the government will have to empanel “statistical juries” to ensure that a random sample is used for important public questions.

2 - Experimental Design

In experimental science in the physical sciences, the object of an experiment is to hold all circumstances of the experiment constant, varying only the variable of interest, and measure how that affects the outcome of interest (e.g. vary the length of a pendulum and see how that affects the period).  But in many areas of interest (e.g. medicine, agriculture) that ideal is not possible to achieve – you just can’t hold everything constant in complicated environments such as the human body or the natural world.  Thus, the principle of randomization has been developed.

In carefully designed experimental designs used for these types of disciplines, randomization ensures that you don’t have to control for all of the many possible confounders that might influence your dependent variable, that are not the main interest of the study. Basically, the argument is that the randomization ensures that the effects of these potential confounders will “wash out”, so to speak.

There are many explicit experimental designs that have been developed for this purpose (split plot, Latin squares, etc.). These have generally been developed in such a way that the maximum amount of information can be extracted from the minimum number of cases in the study.  Depending on the experimental design, one or “a few” (not many) variables are explicitly varied, and randomization takes care of the multitude of other potential confounders. 

Experiments can be expensive (researcher time, equipment costs, administration, etc.), and/or relevant cases can be difficult to find and enrol (e.g. a study for treatment of a rare disease).  Via judicious choice of experimental design, these costs can be restrained, since randomization does a lot of the heavy lifting.

Still, much depends on the number of cases that you can enroll in the study. The more the better, from a statistical point of view, though that drives up costs.  A long-standing practical phrase in statistical science is “get more data” (first attributed to Ronald Fisher, a major figure in the development of statistical science).

3 - Observational studies

With observational studies, you can’t apply these nice experimental designs, so you try to include as many variables as you reasonably can in the study, apart from your main variable of interest (and as many cases as you can).  Since you can’t let randomization do the work of accounting for confounders, you have to try to include as many potentially confounding variables as you can in your data, and use statistical modelling methods, such as regression analysis. 

For example, the amount of cigarette smoking that people do might be your main variable of interest, but other things also influence health (e.g. diet, age, exercise, gender, SES, race, etc.), so you try to include as many of these in your model as is possible. You might check your study population for some fundamental characteristics (e.g. age, gender) against your wider population of interest, as a cross-check, but you can can’t check against every possible confounder, so there is always some room for doubt about how generalizable your results really are.

4 - Monte Carlo Based Algorithms and Simulations

A lot of the newer “data science” algorithms rely on drawing random samples from a dataset, for various reasons (Monte Carlo, bootstrapping, etc.).  For example, the Random Forests technique is an elaboration of the Decision Trees method, that uses multiple subsamples from the same dataset, drawn at random, to improve predictive accuracy, via “bootstrapping”.

There are also many simulation methods, such as agent-based models that make use of randomization.  These have nothing to do with spy agencies (though spy agencies could use them too) – rather, they are computer models that have different “agents” interact within the model, to simulate reality, based on computer rules that are meant to model the real world.

A military application might have an anti-missile system and an offensive missile system “play off” against each other, within the simulation world, to see how effective different strategies or tactics would be.  The simulation model would play multiple scenarios, randomly changing certain parameters and/or moves for the various players.   Typically, it would then report back the most optimum strategies for success (depending on whether you are interested in defence or attack).

Sources of Randomization

There are many ways to do randomization, but these days a computer based random number generator is the most common choice, for most purposes (these are actually pseudo-random, though). I have a big text about random number generators, so it is not a simple concept to operationalize.

It is also remarkably difficult to verify that a run of numbers is “truly random”.  A human being isn’t that good at generating a random series off the top of his or her head.  They tend to have fewer runs of the same number than a real random process generates.  Discovering that a system that should be truly random isn’t really random is a good way of detecting fraud.

In the past, large books of random numbers were published, and schemes for selecting numbers from that book were used. A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates was published by the Rand Corporation, for example.

For scientific studies that require absolutely perfect random numbers, so to speak, randomization can be based on some natural process that is known to be completely random (e.g. radioactive decay, since that is a quantum mechanics based process, and thus about as random as you can get).

Randomness in Regular Life

It is a good idea to keep randomness in mind, in regular life.  For example, some hedge fund operators have excellent reputations, but it can turn out that these are just long runs of random “luck” breaking their way.  With enough hedge funds out there, somebody has to be extremely successful, just by random chance.

Similarly for cultural products, like books and movies.  A successful person can start off with a good run of luck, then remain on top because “nothing succeeds like success”. It is easy to get fooled in such matters, into thinking there is some unique talent at work, rather than dumb luck.

The same is true for random runs of bad results, generally known as “bad luck”.  A few bad cards at the beginning of the poker game, and you are busted, doesn’t necessarily mean that you are a bad player – that’s just life.  But if it happens most of the time, that’s another story.  

And, because cartoons are fun, here are a couple from XKCD (not drawn at random):





Now that you have read about randomness, why not read about a road trip, which is much more fun than a random walk.

A Drive Across Newfoundland


Newfoundland, Canada’s most easterly province, is a region that is both fascinating in its unique culture and amazing in its vistas of stark beauty. The weather is often wild, with coastal regions known for steep cliffs and crashing waves (though tranquil beaches exist too). The inland areas are primarily Precambrian shield, dominated by forests, rivers, rock formations, and abundant wildlife. The province also features some of the Earth’s most remarkable geology, notably The Tablelands, where the mantle rocks of the Earth’s interior have been exposed at the surface, permitting one to explore an almost alien landscape, an opportunity available on only a few scattered regions of the planet.

The city of St. John’s is one of Canada’s most unique urban areas, with a population that maintains many old traditions and cultural aspects of the British Isles. That’s true of the rest of the province, as well, where the people are friendly and inclined to chat amiably with visitors. Plus, they talk with amusing accents and party hard, so what’s not to like?

This account focusses on a two-week road trip in October 2007, from St. John’s in the southeast, to L’Anse aux Meadows in the far northwest, the only known Viking settlement in North America. It also features a day hike visit to The Tablelands, a remarkable and majestic geological feature. Even those who don’t normally consider themselves very interested in geology will find themselves awe-struck by these other-worldly landscapes.