Abortion Laws and Fertility Rates
I generally try to stay away from highly political subjects, but as a data scientist (who sometimes has to do a bit of demographic analysis) I can’t help observing patterns in data that might help to explain events in the world, to myself if to nobody else.
Here’s a pattern that I think helps explain why the Roe vs Wade (abortion rights) issue has re-emerged in the United States this. I say re-emerge, though obviously this issue has never been far from the forefront of the political battlefield. However, the Supreme Court has taken up the issue again, after being mostly unwilling to touch it, after 50 years. Why is that?
Well obviously, there have been changes in the makeup of the Supreme Court recently which have shifted the balance of the membership to a more restrictive stance (or so it is assumed). But, the membership of the court has always been in flux and has had right-leaning majorities at other times in the past five decades. So, what else has changed?
Here is where the graph shown above comes into the picture. It takes a global view of the relationship between abortion laws and fertility rates, at a country-by-country level.
Abortion laws have been rated by the degree to which they restrict rights to abortion. Completed fertility rates indicate the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime, given current trends in any given country. (Detailed data and sources for the data are given at the end of the blog.)
The graph shows that there is a clear association between abortion rights and completed fertility rates. Countries with more restrictive laws tend to have higher fertility rates, while those with less restrictive laws have lower fertility rates.
That’s not to say that this is a cause and effect relationship – it is more likely correlational. It isn’t necessarily that more liberal abortion laws lead to more abortions, which lead to a lower birth rate. That is probably far too simplistic. (In fact there has been some research showing that the reverse is often true, as women who have an abortion often stop at one child).
It is more a matter of what economists refer to as “nudges” or what political scientists would likely call signalling from the wider public culture. The relative strictness of abortion laws within a society sends a signal about the value that is placed on family formation and reproduction by that society. That signal is, of course, tangled up within a mesh of other cultural aspects, such as religion, economics and cultural traditions and standards. The same is true of matters such as public support for daycare and other efforts to make life-work balance more amenable to child-rearing in general.
Why would this be happening now? The second graph helps to explain that. As you can see nearly two-thirds of the world’s population are now living in relatively low fertility countries, with nearly four-tenths living in below replacement fertility countries (replacement fertility is conventionally estimated to be about 2.1). So, at the global level, the ratio of population sources to population sinks is shifting. That means that using immigration to drive population policies will become less and less tenable.
Along with that, other phenomena are showing the limits of globalization theory. For example:
-
Pandemics are more likely when travel and trade is relatively unrestricted.
-
The fragility of complex world-wide supply-chains is being revealed, partly from the Covid pandemic and partly from geopolitical conflict, such as the situation in Ukraine.
-
The impact of population policies on global warming will become more and more urgent.
-
Countries may be less and less willing to allow emigration, especially of their brightest and best educated. There may come an expectation that they should stay home and help their native land to develop. “Poaching” these highly skilled people may even become seen to be immoral, a new form of human resource colonialism.
I am inclined to believe that demographic issues will become more and more contested in the near future, especially in the lower fertility countries. The re-opening of Roe vs Wade is likely just an early phase in this development. Sometimes efforts to address these matters will be cast in what are conventionally considered conservative terms (e.g. stricter abortion laws), sometimes in what are conventionally considered liberal terms (e.g. more public funding for early childcare). Often the demographic realities underlying the policies will be downplayed or ignored, as there is a sort of taboo about these issues, though I think those taboos will dissipate in the near future. Demographic realities pretty well demand that.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are two sources for the graph data, which are given below.
The x-axis is a categorization of countries by how restrictive their abortion laws currently are. The data is from the group “Center for Reproductive Rights”. The categorizations are given below.
Category I. Prohibited Altogether (24 countries)
Category II. To Save the Woman’s Life (43 countries)
Category III. To Preserve Health (53 countries)
Category IV. Socioeconomic Grounds (13 countries)
Category V. On Request (Gestational Limits Vary) (75 countries)
website: https://reproductiverights.org/maps/worlds-abortion-laws/
The y-axis is from the website of the organization World Population Review, which has statistics on both population and completed fertility rates.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/total-fertility-rate
For completeness here are graphs using unweighted means and medians for the fertility measures.
And here is a detailed list of countries used for the graphs, with Abortion Law categorizations, fertility rates and populations by country.
|
LawCateg |
CountryLaw |
Median - fertilityRate |
Average - fertilityRate |
Sum - Population |
|
1 |
Andorra |
1.30 |
1.30 |
77,463 |
|
|
Aruba |
|
|
107,609 |
|
|
Congo (Brazzaville) |
4.40 |
4.40 |
5,797,805 |
|
|
Curaçao |
|
|
165,529 |
|
|
Dominican Republic |
2.30 |
2.30 |
11,056,370 |
|
|
Egypt |
3.30 |
3.30 |
106,156,692 |
|
|
El Salvador |
2.00 |
2.00 |
6,550,389 |
|
|
Haiti |
2.90 |
2.90 |
11,680,283 |
|
|
Honduras |
2.50 |
2.50 |
10,221,247 |
|
|
Iraq |
3.70 |
3.70 |
42,164,965 |
|
|
Jamaica |
2.00 |
2.00 |
2,985,094 |
|
|
Laos |
2.70 |
2.70 |
7,481,023 |
|
|
Madagascar |
4.10 |
4.10 |
29,178,077 |
|
|
Malta |
1.20 |
1.20 |
444,033 |
|
|
Mauritania |
4.60 |
4.60 |
4,901,981 |
|
|
Nicaragua |
1.70 |
1.70 |
6,779,100 |
|
|
Palau: ? |
2.20 |
2.20 |
18,233 |
|
|
Philippines |
2.60 |
2.60 |
112,508,994 |
|
|
San Marino |
|
|
34,085 |
|
|
Senegal |
4.60 |
4.60 |
17,653,671 |
|
|
Sierra Leone |
4.30 |
4.30 |
8,306,436 |
|
|
Suriname |
2.40 |
2.40 |
596,831 |
|
|
Tonga |
3.60 |
3.60 |
107,749 |
|
|
West Bank & Gaza Strip |
|
|
626,161 |
|
2 |
Afghanistan |
4.50 |
4.50 |
40,754,388 |
|
|
Antigua & Barbuda |
2.00 |
2.00 |
99,509 |
|
|
Bahrain |
2.00 |
2.00 |
1,783,983 |
|
|
Bangladesh |
2.00 |
2.00 |
167,885,689 |
|
|
Bhutan: R, I, + |
2.00 |
2.00 |
787,941 |
|
|
Brazil: R, + |
1.70 |
1.70 |
215,353,593 |
|
|
Brunei Darussalam |
1.80 |
1.80 |
445,431 |
|
|
Chile: R, F |
1.60 |
1.60 |
19,250,195 |
|
|
Côte d’Ivoire: R |
4.60 |
4.60 |
27,742,298 |
|
|
Dominica |
1.90 |
1.90 |
72,344 |
|
|
Gabon: R, I, F, + |
4.00 |
4.00 |
2,331,533 |
|
|
Gambia: F |
5.20 |
5.20 |
2,558,482 |
|
|
Guatemala |
2.90 |
2.90 |
18,584,039 |
|
|
Indonesia: R, F, SA |
2.30 |
2.30 |
279,134,505 |
|
|
Iran: F |
2.10 |
2.10 |
86,022,837 |
|
|
Kiribati |
3.60 |
3.60 |
123,419 |
|
|
Lebanon |
2.10 |
2.10 |
6,684,849 |
|
|
Libya |
2.20 |
2.20 |
7,040,745 |
|
|
Malawi |
4.20 |
4.20 |
20,180,839 |
|
|
Mali: R, I |
5.90 |
5.90 |
21,473,764 |
|
|
Marshall Islands: ? |
4.00 |
4.00 |
60,057 |
|
|
Mexico: R, F, |
2.10 |
2.10 |
131,562,772 |
|
|
Micronesia: ?, |
3.10 |
3.10 |
117,489 |
|
|
Myanmar |
2.20 |
2.20 |
55,227,143 |
|
|
Nigeria |
5.40 |
5.40 |
216,746,934 |
|
|
Oman |
2.90 |
2.90 |
5,323,993 |
|
|
PA |
|
|
0 |
|
|
Panama: R, F, PA |
2.50 |
2.50 |
4,446,964 |
|
|
Papua New Guinea |
3.60 |
3.60 |
9,292,169 |
|
|
Paraguay |
2.40 |
2.40 |
7,305,843 |
|
|
Solomon Islands |
4.40 |
4.40 |
721,159 |
|
|
Somalia |
|
|
16,841,795 |
|
|
South Sudan |
4.70 |
4.70 |
11,618,511 |
|
|
Sri Lanka |
2.20 |
2.20 |
21,575,842 |
|
|
Sudan: R |
4.40 |
4.40 |
45,992,020 |
|
|
Syria: SA, PA |
2.80 |
2.80 |
19,364,809 |
|
|
Tanzania |
4.90 |
4.90 |
63,298,550 |
|
|
Timor-Leste: PA |
4.00 |
4.00 |
1,369,429 |
|
|
Tuvalu |
|
|
12,066 |
|
|
Uganda |
5.00 |
5.00 |
48,432,863 |
|
|
United Arab Emirates (UAE): F, SA, |
1.40 |
1.40 |
10,081,785 |
|
|
Venezuela |
2.30 |
2.30 |
29,266,991 |
|
|
Yemen: SA |
3.80 |
3.80 |
31,154,867 |
|
3 |
Algeria |
3.00 |
3.00 |
45,350,148 |
|
|
Angola: R, I, F, PA |
5.50 |
5.50 |
35,027,343 |
|
|
Bahamas |
1.80 |
1.80 |
400,516 |
|
|
Benin: R, I, F |
4.80 |
4.80 |
12,784,726 |
|
|
Bolivia: R, I |
2.70 |
2.70 |
11,992,656 |
|
|
Botswana: R, I, F |
2.90 |
2.90 |
2,441,162 |
|
|
Burkina Faso: R, I, F |
5.20 |
5.20 |
22,102,838 |
|
|
Burundi |
5.40 |
5.40 |
12,624,840 |
|
|
Cameroon: R |
4.60 |
4.60 |
27,911,548 |
|
|
Central African Rep.: R, I, F, + |
4.70 |
4.70 |
5,016,678 |
|
|
Chad: R, I, F |
5.70 |
5.70 |
17,413,580 |
|
|
Colombia: R, I, F |
1.80 |
1.80 |
51,512,762 |
|
|
Comoros |
4.20 |
4.20 |
907,419 |
|
|
Costa Rica |
1.80 |
1.80 |
5,182,354 |
|
|
Dem. Rep. of Congo: R, I, F |
5.90 |
5.90 |
95,240,792 |
|
|
Djibouti |
2.70 |
2.70 |
1,016,097 |
|
|
Ecuador: + |
2.40 |
2.40 |
18,113,361 |
|
|
Equatorial Guinea: SA, PA |
4.50 |
4.50 |
1,496,662 |
|
|
Eritrea: R, I, + |
4.10 |
4.10 |
3,662,244 |
|
|
Eswatini (formerly Swaziland): |
3.00 |
3.00 |
1,184,817 |
|
|
Ghana: R, I, F, + |
3.90 |
3.90 |
32,395,450 |
|
|
Grenada |
2.10 |
2.10 |
113,475 |
|
|
Guinea: R, I, F |
4.70 |
4.70 |
13,865,691 |
|
|
Israel: R, I, F, + |
3.10 |
3.10 |
8,922,892 |
|
|
Jordan |
2.80 |
2.80 |
10,300,869 |
|
|
Kenya |
3.50 |
3.50 |
56,215,221 |
|
|
Kuwait: F, SA, PA |
2.10 |
2.10 |
4,380,326 |
|
|
Lesotho: R, I, F |
3.10 |
3.10 |
2,175,699 |
|
|
Liberia: R, I, F |
4.30 |
4.30 |
5,305,117 |
|
|
Liechtenstein: R, PA, + |
1.60 |
1.60 |
38,387 |
|
|
Malaysia |
2.00 |
2.00 |
33,181,072 |
|
|
Mauritius: R, I, F, PA |
1.40 |
1.40 |
1,274,727 |
|
|
Monaco: R, I, F, |
|
|
39,783 |
|
|
Morocco: SA |
2.40 |
2.40 |
37,772,756 |
|
|
Namibia: R, I, F |
3.40 |
3.40 |
2,633,874 |
|
|
Nauru: R, I, F, + |
|
|
10,903 |
|
|
Niger: F |
6.90 |
6.90 |
26,083,660 |
|
|
Pakistan |
3.50 |
3.50 |
229,488,994 |
|
|
Peru |
2.30 |
2.30 |
33,684,208 |
|
|
Poland: R, I, PA |
1.50 |
1.50 |
37,739,785 |
|
|
Qatar: F |
1.90 |
1.90 |
2,979,915 |
|
|
R, I, F |
|
|
0 |
|
|
Rep. of Korea: R, I, SA, + |
1.00 |
1.00 |
51,329,899 |
|
|
Saint Kitts & Nevis: † |
2.10 |
2.10 |
53,871 |
|
|
Saint Lucia: R, I |
1.40 |
1.40 |
185,113 |
|
|
Samoa |
3.90 |
3.90 |
202,239 |
|
|
Saudi Arabia: SA, PA |
2.30 |
2.30 |
35,844,909 |
|
|
Seychelles: R, I, F, + |
2.40 |
2.40 |
99,426 |
|
|
Togo: R, I, F |
4.30 |
4.30 |
8,680,837 |
|
|
Trinidad & Tobago: † |
1.70 |
1.70 |
1,406,585 |
|
|
Vanuatu |
3.80 |
3.80 |
321,832 |
|
|
Zimbabwe: R, I, F, |
3.60 |
3.60 |
15,331,428 |
|
4 |
Barbados: R, I, F, PA |
1.60 |
1.60 |
288,023 |
|
|
Belize: F |
2.30 |
2.30 |
412,190 |
|
|
Ethiopia: R, I, F, + |
4.20 |
4.20 |
120,812,698 |
|
|
Fiji: R, I, F, PA |
2.80 |
2.80 |
909,466 |
|
|
Finland: R, F, + |
1.40 |
1.40 |
5,554,960 |
|
|
Great Britain: F |
1.70 |
1.70 |
68,497,907 |
|
|
Hong Kong: R, I, F |
1.10 |
1.10 |
7,604,299 |
|
|
India: R, F, PA |
2.20 |
2.20 |
1,406,631,776 |
|
|
Japan: R, SA |
1.40 |
1.40 |
125,584,838 |
|
|
Rwanda: R, I, F, + |
4.00 |
4.00 |
13,600,464 |
|
|
Saint Vincent & Grenadines: R, I, F |
1.90 |
1.90 |
39,730 |
|
|
Taiwan: R, I, F, SA, PA |
|
|
23,888,595 |
|
|
Zambia: F |
4.60 |
4.60 |
19,470,234 |
|
5 |
Albania: PA |
1.60 |
1.60 |
2,866,374 |
|
|
Argentina W14 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
46,010,234 |
|
|
Armenia: PA |
1.80 |
1.80 |
2,971,966 |
|
|
Australia: |
1.70 |
1.70 |
26,068,792 |
|
|
Austria D90 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
9,066,710 |
|
|
Azerbaijan |
1.70 |
1.70 |
10,300,205 |
|
|
Belarus |
1.40 |
1.40 |
9,432,800 |
|
|
Belgium W14 |
1.60 |
1.60 |
11,668,278 |
|
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina: PA |
1.30 |
1.30 |
3,249,317 |
|
|
Bulgaria |
1.60 |
1.60 |
6,844,597 |
|
|
Cambodia W14 : PA |
2.50 |
2.50 |
17,168,639 |
|
|
Canada° |
1.50 |
1.50 |
38,388,419 |
|
|
Cape Verde |
|
|
567,678 |
|
|
China°: SX |
1.70 |
1.70 |
1,448,471,400 |
|
|
CroatiaW10 : PA |
1.50 |
1.50 |
4,059,286 |
|
|
Cuba: PA |
1.60 |
1.60 |
11,305,652 |
|
|
Cyprus |
1.30 |
1.30 |
1,223,387 |
|
|
Czech Rep.: PA |
1.70 |
1.70 |
10,736,784 |
|
|
Dem. People’s Rep. of Korea° |
1.90 |
1.90 |
25,990,679 |
|
|
Denmark: PA |
1.70 |
1.70 |
5,834,950 |
|
|
Estonia |
1.70 |
1.70 |
1,321,910 |
|
|
FranceW14 |
1.90 |
1.90 |
65,584,518 |
|
|
French Guiana |
|
|
314,169 |
|
|
Georgia: PA |
2.10 |
2.10 |
3,968,738 |
|
|
Germany |
1.60 |
1.60 |
83,883,596 |
|
|
Greece: PA |
1.40 |
1.40 |
10,316,637 |
|
|
Guinea-Bissauº |
4.50 |
4.50 |
2,063,367 |
|
|
GuyanaW8 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
794,045 |
|
|
Hungary |
1.60 |
1.60 |
9,606,259 |
|
|
Iceland W22 |
1.70 |
1.70 |
345,393 |
|
|
Ireland |
1.80 |
1.80 |
5,020,199 |
|
|
ItalyD90 |
1.30 |
1.30 |
60,262,770 |
|
|
Kazakhstan |
2.80 |
2.80 |
19,205,043 |
|
|
Kosovo W10 : PA, SX |
|
|
0 |
|
|
Kyrgyzstan |
3.30 |
3.30 |
6,728,271 |
|
|
Latvia: PA |
1.60 |
1.60 |
1,848,837 |
|
|
Lithuania: PA |
1.60 |
1.60 |
2,661,708 |
|
|
Luxembourg W14 |
1.40 |
1.40 |
642,371 |
|
|
Macedonia (formerly |
1.50 |
1.50 |
2,081,304 |
|
|
Macedonia): PA |
|
|
0 |
|
|
MaldivesD120 |
1.90 |
1.90 |
540,985 |
|
|
Moldova: PA |
1.30 |
1.30 |
4,013,171 |
|
|
Mongolia D90 |
2.90 |
2.90 |
3,378,078 |
|
|
Montenegro: PA, SX |
1.70 |
1.70 |
627,950 |
|
|
Mozambique |
4.90 |
4.90 |
33,089,461 |
|
|
Nepal: SX |
1.90 |
1.90 |
30,225,582 |
|
|
Netherlands∞ |
1.60 |
1.60 |
17,211,447 |
|
|
New Caledonia |
|
|
290,915 |
|
|
New ZealandW20 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
4,898,203 |
|
|
Northern Ireland |
|
|
0 |
|
|
Norway: PA |
1.60 |
1.60 |
5,511,370 |
|
|
Portugal |
1.40 |
1.40 |
10,140,570 |
|
|
Puerto Rico∞ |
|
|
2,829,812 |
|
|
Republic of North |
|
|
0 |
|
|
RomaniaW14 |
1.80 |
1.80 |
19,031,335 |
|
|
Russian Fed. |
1.60 |
1.60 |
145,805,947 |
|
|
Sao Tome & Principe |
4.30 |
4.30 |
227,679 |
|
|
Serbia: PA |
1.50 |
1.50 |
8,653,016 |
|
|
SingaporeW24 |
1.10 |
1.10 |
5,943,546 |
|
|
Slovak Rep.: PA |
1.50 |
1.50 |
5,460,193 |
|
|
Slovenia: PA |
1.60 |
1.60 |
2,078,034 |
|
|
South Africa |
2.40 |
2.40 |
60,756,135 |
|
|
SpainW14 : PA |
1.30 |
1.30 |
46,719,142 |
|
|
SwedenW18 |
1.80 |
1.80 |
10,218,971 |
|
|
Switzerland |
1.50 |
1.50 |
8,773,637 |
|
|
Tajikistan |
3.60 |
3.60 |
9,957,464 |
|
|
Thailand |
1.50 |
1.50 |
70,078,203 |
|
|
TunisiaD90 |
2.20 |
2.20 |
12,046,656 |
|
|
Turkey W10 : SA, PA |
2.10 |
2.10 |
85,561,976 |
|
|
Turkmenistan |
2.80 |
2.80 |
6,201,943 |
|
|
Ukraine |
1.30 |
1.30 |
43,192,122 |
|
|
United States∞: PA, |
1.70 |
1.70 |
334,805,269 |
|
|
Uruguay: PA |
2.00 |
2.00 |
3,496,016 |
|
|
Uzbekistan |
2.40 |
2.40 |
34,382,084 |
|
|
Vietna |
2.00 |
2.00 |
98,953,541 |
|
Total Result |
|
2.20 |
2.68 |
7,944,436,655 |
